Alico's Q4 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions in Land Sales Guidance, Entitlement Timelines, and Strategy

Date of Call: November 25, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: Q4: $0.802M, down from $0.935M year-ago; FY2025: $44.1M, down from $46.6M in FY2024
• EPS: Q4: net loss $8.5M, $(1.11) per diluted share vs $(2.38) prior year; FY2025: net loss $147.3M, $(19.29) per diluted share (primarily due to $162.7M accelerated depreciation and $25M asset impairments)

Guidance:

• No numerical guidance on FY2026 land sales.
• Optimize agricultural leasing and maintain strict cost controls.
• Advance entitlements for four priority development projects, focus on securing Corkscrew Grove approvals in 2026.
• Balance entitlement investment with shareholder returns while preserving financial flexibility; expect to fund operations through FY2027 with $38.1M cash and $92.5M available on the line of credit.
• Maintain dividends and optional share repurchases (authorized $50M buyback) as land monetization progresses.

Business Commentary:

• Strategic Transformation and Growth:
• Alico reported exceeding their financial guidance for adjusted EBITDA with $22.5 million, surpassing the $20 million target.

• The company successfully completed the transition from a traditional citrus producer to a diversified land company, reducing financial risk and enhancing long-term value creation.

• Balance Sheet Strengthening:

• Alico ended the fiscal year with $38.1 million in cash and reduced net debt to $47.4 million.

• This improvement was driven by strong operational execution, land sales, and crop insurance proceeds, providing financial flexibility through fiscal year 2027.

• Land Sales and Development Pipeline:

• Land sales reached $23.8 million, surpassing a $20 million guidance, reflecting strong demand for strategically located properties.

• The development pipeline continues to advance, with Corkscrew Grove Villages as a lead project, positioned for significant regulatory and infrastructure milestones.

• Conservation and Sustainability Commitment:

• Alico committed to preserving approximately 6,000 acres of land for conservation purposes, supporting the Florida Wildlife Corridor and Collier Rural Land Stewardship Program.

• This commitment enhances the value and marketability of development projects while maintaining a balanced approach to growth and conservation.

• Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation:

• Alico paid its fourth quarter dividend, maintaining a 50-year dividend legacy and returning more than $190 million to shareholders since 2015.
• The company has balanced capital allocation between entitlement investments and shareholder returns, maintaining flexibility for long-term strategic execution.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • Management stated: 'We exceeded our financial guidance' with $22.5M adjusted EBITDA, 'ended the year with $38.1 million in cash', 'we have essentially lowered the financial risk', and presented an NPV of the land portfolio of $650M–$750M versus a $240M market cap.

Q&A:

• Question from George (Freedom Broadcast): My only question, what is the expected current of the land sales in the next 12 months? Should we anticipate larger transactions similar to prior year disposals of more measured pace?
  Response: Management said they are not providing guidance on additional land sales for fiscal 2026.

Contradiction Point 1

Land Sales Guidance

It involves changes in guidance regarding land sales, which can impact the company's cash flow and strategic plans.

What is the expected volume of land sales over the next 12 months? Will larger transactions occur at a more measured pace compared to last year's disposals? - Unknown Analyst (Freedom Broadcast)

2025Q4: We have not provided any guidance on additional land sales at this time for fiscal year 2026. - John Kiernan(CEO)

Are you currently discussing additional land sales? - Brandon B. Rogers (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: We're basically in a transaction that has a life and a timetable of its own. There's a diligence and inspection period that's continuing to go on. Right now, it's possible that it could close at the end of fiscal 2025. It's also possible that could roll into fiscal 2026. But we think it's a good transaction. We think it's at a fair value. And the timing just is a little bit hazy now. - John Kiernan(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Entitlement Process Timeline

It involves the timeline for entitlement processes, which are crucial for the company's development projects and strategic growth.

What is the expected land sales volume over the next 12 months? Will larger transactions occur at a more measured pace compared to last year? - Unknown Analyst (Freedom Broadcast)

2025Q4: We have not provided any guidance on additional land sales at this time for fiscal year 2026. - John Kiernan(CEO)

What are the potential milestones to watch between now and entitlement approvals, the likelihood of the Collier Board of County Commissioners making a final decision by 2026, and potential delays? - Brandon B. Rogers (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: In all of these entitlement projects, there are multiple external variables that the company cannot control. There's all sorts of government reviews. There's additional questioning. We've got some public meetings that will take place. And all of them have to be scheduled, timed, held, sometimes there's follow-ups. So the current timetable that we've articulated in our earnings release, we believe with good confidence, based on what we've achieved so far, as well as the visibility into going forward that, yes, we would be on track for the potential securing of the permits, particularly at our Corkscrew property on the time frame that you had described. But some of those are just out of our control... We've done a very good job of basically turning around quickly of filing efficiently and accurately. We've tried to be very, very transparent with all constituents as we've gone through these entitlement processes, but some of that is just simply out of our control. - John Kiernan(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Land Sales Strategy and Expectations

It involves changes in the company's approach and expectations regarding land sales, which are significant for financial forecasting and strategic planning.

What is the expected pace of land sales over the next 12 months, and should we expect larger transactions similar to prior-year disposals but at a more measured pace? - Unknown Analyst (Freedom Broadcast)

2025Q4: We have not provided any guidance on additional land sales at this time for fiscal year 2026. - John Kiernan(CEO & President)

Are there ongoing discussions for additional land sales this year? And what gives you confidence in achieving the $50 million target for the year? - Brandon Rogers (ROTH Capital)

2025Q2: We’ve negotiated agreements to sell some acres, but the timing is uncertain due to diligence processes. We’re in discussions with several parties for potential land sales, but nothing solid enough to report yet. - John Kiernan(CEO & President)

Contradiction Point 4

Land Sales Strategy

It involves changes in the company’s strategy related to land sales, which could impact financial projections and investor expectations.

What is the expected land sales volume over the next 12 months? Will there be larger transactions similar to prior years but at a more measured pace? - Unknown Analyst (Freedom Broadcast)

2025Q4: We have not provided any guidance on additional land sales at this time for fiscal year 2026. - John Kiernan(CEO)

None. - John Kiernan

2025Q1: Alico has decided to wind down its capital-intensive citrus operations after the current crop harvest, focusing on alternative agricultural operations and strategic land monetization. - John Kiernan(CEO)