Alico’s Earnings Miss Mask Strong Land Sales and Cash Build

Date of Call: Feb 5, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $1.9M, compared to $16.9M in the prior year period (down due to conclusion of citrus business)
• EPS: $0.45 per diluted share net loss, improved from $1.20 per diluted share net loss in the prior year period

Guidance:

• Adjusted EBITDA for full fiscal year 2026 expected to be approximately $14M.
• Anticipate ending fiscal year 2026 with approximately $50M in cash and reducing net debt to approximately $35M.
• Assumes no capital returns to shareholders; projections provide flexibility for potential capital allocation.

Business Commentary:

Strong Land Sales and Financial Improvement:

• Alico, Inc. reported $7.7 million in land sales for Q1 2026, reflecting strong demand for its Florida properties.
• The company's net loss improved to $3.5 million from a loss of $9.2 million in the prior year period, with positive EBITDA of $2.4 million.
• The improvements were driven by strategic land monetization, enhanced business model, and reduced operational complexity.

High Utilization of Farmable Acreage:

• Alico achieved 97% utilization of its approximately 32,500 farmable agricultural acres.
• This high utilization rate was a result of diversified leasing programs and strategic partnerships, maximizing revenue from agricultural activities.

Development Pipeline and Stewardship District:

• The estimated present value of Alico's four near-term real estate development projects ranges from $335 million to $380 million.
• The establishment of the Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District provided a regulatory framework for sustainable growth, validating the company's development strategy.

Cash Position and Financial Flexibility:

• Alico reported $34.8 million in cash at the end of Q1 2025 and anticipates ending fiscal year 2026 with approximately $50 million in cash.
• This strong liquidity position, along with a current ratio of 14.39:1, provides substantial financial flexibility and runway to execute on strategic initiatives.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• CEO stated 'We are very pleased with our first quarter results' and 'Alico today is fundamentally transformed. We are well capitalized, strategically focused.' CFO noted results 'demonstrate solid execution' and that 'the fundamentals of our business model are working as intended.' Management sees a 'significant valuation disconnect' favoring shareholders.

Q&A:

• Question from Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC): Regarding Corkscrew approval timing, are we thinking sort of 3Q, 4Q type event? Or any idea on timing?
  Response: Anticipates a decision by the end of September 2026 (fiscal Q3 or Q4) but does not control the local calendar.

• Question from Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC): Assuming approval, what are the key next steps for Corkscrew? Does it include potential partnerships with developers?
  Response: Next steps include local, state, and federal approvals (especially Army Corps of Engineers and Fish and Wildlife); developer conversations happen regularly but nothing is solidified.

• Question from Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC): Can you discuss what type of cash flow the 97% farmland utilization rate could bring in?
  Response: Management declined to provide specific forecasted cash flow information but agreed to discuss offline and potentially provide more clarity next quarter.

Contradiction Point 1

Guidance on Future Land Sales

Contradiction on providing guidance for land sales in the upcoming fiscal year.

How does the 97% farmland utilization rate impact cash flow for future financial modeling? - Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC)

2026Q1: The request will be taken offline, with the possibility of providing more clarity next quarter. - John Kiernan(CEO)

What is the expected cadence of land sales over the next 12 months—will it involve larger transactions similar to prior year disposals or a more measured pace? - George (Freedom Broadcast)

2025Q4: The company has not provided any guidance on additional land sales for fiscal year 2026. - John Kiernan(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Corkscrew Development Approval Timeline

Contradiction on the certainty and timeline for key regulatory approval.

Is the approval for Corkscrew Grove Villages expected in Q3 or Q4? - Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC)

2026Q1: An assumption of approval by the end of September (Q3 or Q4 of the fiscal year) is not unreasonable, but the timing is not controlled by the company. - John Kiernan(CEO)

What are key milestones to watch for in the Corkscrew development before 2028-2029, and what is the likelihood of the Collier Board of County Commissioners making a final decision by 2026, including potential delays? - Brandon B. Rogers (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC)

2025Q3: The timeline is on track with expectations for a final decision in 2026. However, the process involves multiple external government reviews and public meetings, which are out of the company's control. The company is filing efficiently and transparently, but some delays are possible due to these external variables. - John E. Kiernan(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Strategy on Development Partnerships

Contradiction on the company's openness to and strategy for forming development partnerships.

What are the key next steps for Corkscrew between approval and construction, including potential partnerships with developers? - Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC)

2026Q1: Conversations with national homebuilders and developers are ongoing but nothing is solidified. - John Kiernan(CEO)

Has Alico partnered with other groups on development, and if so, can you provide details on the strategy for permitting, building, and marketing? - Brandon B. Rogers (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC)

2025Q3: At this early entitlement stage, the company is handling the process solo with experienced consultants and does not have a need for a partner. The strategy maintains optionality... Current discussions with potential partners are premature. - John E. Kiernan(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Corkscrew Development Approval Timeline (Reiterated)

Inconsistent timeline expectations for key regulatory approvals.

Is the Corkscrew Grove Villages approval expected in Q3 or Q4? Are there any timing expectations? - Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC)

2026Q1: An assumption of approval by the end of September (Q3 or Q4 of the fiscal year) is not unreasonable, but the timing is not controlled by the company. - John Kiernan(CEO)

What key milestones should be monitored for the Corkscrew development until entitlement approvals? - Brandon Rogers (ROTH Capital)

2025Q2: The key milestones will be the entitlement approvals at local, state, and federal levels. The process involves local approval from Collier County, which is anticipated to take about one year with a final decision expected in 2026. - John Kiernan(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Readiness to Provide Cash Flow Forecast

Shift from deferring to providing potential future clarity.

What impact does the 97% farmland utilization rate have on cash flow for future modeling? - Gerard Sweeney (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC)

2026Q1: The request will be taken offline, with the possibility of providing more clarity next quarter. - John Kiernan(CEO)

Are you currently in discussions with other parties regarding the potential $50 million land sales this year, and what gives you confidence in meeting this target? - Brandon Rogers (ROTH Capital)

2025Q2: The company is not providing specific forecasted cash flow information at this time. - John Kiernan(CEO)