Alibaba Stock Surges 8.19% to $176.44 as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

Candlestick Theory
Alibaba Group's recent price action reveals critical technical formations. The stock surged 8.19% to $176.44 on September 24, 2025, forming a robust bullish candle with a high of $180.16 and low of $175. This follows a hammer pattern on September 11 (low: $147.86, close: $155.44), which signaled reversal potential after a decline. Key resistance emerges near $180.16, aligning with the August 29 peak of $136.65 (adjusted for the subsequent rally). Support is established at $162.50, validated by multiple tests in mid-September. The $175–$180 zone now represents a decisive breakout threshold, with sustained closes above $180 suggesting further upside momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration underscores a bullish trend transition. The 50-day MA (currently ~$130) crossed above the 200-day MA (~$120) in August, generating a "golden cross" indicative of long-term strength. Currently, the price trades above all three key MAs (50-day: $147, 100-day: $137, 200-day: $124), confirming a multi-timeframe uptrend. The 50-day MA has acted as dynamic support during September pullbacks, while the ascending 200-day MA reinforces the structural bull bias. This alignment suggests the path of least resistance remains upward.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) exhibits bullish momentum, with the histogram expanding above the signal line since early September. This aligns with the KDJ oscillator, where the K-line (currently ~75) crossed above the D-line in oversold territory (<30) on September 11, triggering a buy signal. Both indicators now approach overbought zones but show no bearish divergence. The MACD’s positive crossover and KDJ’s sustained upward slope support near-term strength, though overbought KDJ readings (J-line: ~85) warrant monitoring for potential consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident, with bands widening sharply after the September 24 breakout. Price closed above the upper Bollinger Band ($172), signaling extreme strength but also near-term overextension. This follows a prolonged band contraction in August–September, which typically precedes directional moves. The breakout’s conviction is reinforced by the close above the band—a rarity that often implies sustained momentum. Support now converges with the 20-day moving average (mid-band) near $160.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume dynamics validate the bullish structure. The September 24 rally occurred on 52.4M shares—well above the 30-day average—confirming institutional participation. Earlier pivotal moves also featured volume spikes: the August 29 surge (+12.9%) on 82.2M shares and the September 11 rebound (+8.0%) on 50.1M shares. This volume-price synergy contrasts with the July downtrend, where declines saw higher volume than rallies. Accumulation is evident, as 10 of the last 14 sessions featured higher closes on rising volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI now reads ~72, entering overbought territory for the first time since May. While this suggests potential near-term exhaustion, the bullish context limits its warning significance. Prior instances of RSI >70 (e.g., April 23 and May 14) preceded minor pullbacks rather than reversals. Notably, RSI diverged positively in August–September when price made lower lows while RSI formed higher lows, foreshadowing the current rally. Oversold signals (RSI<30) in June and August provided high-probability entry points.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June–August decline (high: $134.05 on May 14; low: $96.03 on January 28), key levels emerge. The 61.8% retracement ($120.50) was breached decisively in late August. The current price approaches the 78.6% level ($179.50), which aligns with the September 24 high ($180.16). A conclusive close above $180 would open the path to the 100% extension at $194. The 50% retracement ($115) now serves as major support, reinforced by the 200-day MA and volume confluence.
Confluence & Divergences
Multi-indicator confluence bolsters the $180 resistance level, combining Fibonacci (78.6%), candlestick highs, and Bollinger Band extremes. The moving average stack (50>100>200) and MACD/KDJ alignment support bullish continuity. A minor divergence exists between RSI overbought readings and price, but this lacks confirmation from volume or MACD. The primary risk is clustered resistance near $180.00; however, a weekly close above this zone would likely trigger momentum-driven targeting of $195–$200.