Algorand/Tether Market Overview

• Price action saw a 24-hour consolidation with a 0.45% range (0.1861–0.1935).
• Momentum indicators showed mixed signals, with RSI hitting oversold and overbought levels.
• Bollinger Bands highlighted a recent volatility expansion after a period of contraction.
• Volume spiked during the 0.1920–0.1935 rally, confirming strength in upward moves.
• A golden cross appears on the 15-minute timeframe, suggesting a short-term bullish bias.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 26, 2025, Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) opened at 0.1897 and closed at 0.1877 by 12:00 ET on October 27. The pair reached a high of 0.1935 and a low of 0.1861 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 20,982,490, while notional turnover was approximately $3,673,433.

The candlestick pattern shows a bearish reversal trend from the midday rally on October 26, as price corrected sharply into the early hours of October 27. A key support level appears to be forming near 0.1875, with 0.1861 as the next critical level to watch. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the 0.1870–0.1876 range around October 27 at 06:30 ET, suggesting a short-term reversal.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price early in the rally, forming a golden cross. This was followed by a death cross as the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the late afternoon, indicating a shift in momentum. The MACD line turned negative during the downward phase, with bearish divergence visible. The RSI oscillated between 20 and 80, with brief overbought and oversold conditions, but no sustained extremes.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction from October 26, 19:00 ET to 22:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price surged above the upper band. Price remained within the bands for most of the session after the breakout, suggesting that volatility is stabilizing.

A Fibonacci retracement applied to the recent 0.1861–0.1935 swing identified a 38.2% retracement level at 0.1897 and a 61.8% level at 0.1922. Price tested the 61.8% level before rolling back into consolidation, suggesting bearish pressure has gained control.

Volume spiked during the rally from 0.1885 to 0.1935, confirming bullish conviction. However, the decline from 0.1935 to 0.1877 occurred with declining volume, hinting at weakening bearish momentum. Notional turnover remained in line with price, with no notable divergence to signal exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy relies on the golden cross (20 MA crossing above 50 MA) as a buy signal and the death cross (20 MA crossing below 50 MA) as a sell signal. The current signal file has an unmatched golden cross near the end of the 24-hour period, as the corresponding death cross has not yet occurred by the 2025-10-27 cut-off.

To proceed, we recommend either:
1. Discarding the final un-closed golden cross and running the backtest on only the completed trades to maintain the integrity of the signal logic.
2. Extending the backtest end date to include the next death cross, ensuring all entries and exits are matched.

Using the first approach will allow the strategy to be validated on completed trades, while the second approach will provide a more complete picture of the signal’s performance. Either method maintains the core logic while avoiding index errors due to unmatched signals.