Algorand/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-13

Summary
• ALGOUSDT drifted lower over the 24-hour period, with bearish consolidation after early resistance.
• A 0.1740–0.1760 range acted as key resistance, with price failing to break above.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed momentum, with no clear bullish or bearish divergence.
• Volume surged during midday ET, but price failed to confirm with a strong close.
• Price remains within Bollinger Bands midline, with low volatility contraction.

Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) opened at 0.1729 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1768 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-13. The 24-hour range spanned from 0.1710 (low) to 0.1803 (high), with total volume traded at 39,436,133.0 ALGO and total turnover at $6,853,005. The pair remains in a medium-term consolidation phase, with price fluctuating around key psychological levels. The 15-minute chart showed several attempts to break above 0.1760–0.1770 but stalled with bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns forming at resistance.

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period EMA hovered above the 50-period EMA, indicating a slight short-term bullish tilt, although the 50-period line acted as a ceiling on multiple occasions. The 50-period EMA sat at ~0.1750, aligning with recent support levels, while the 100-period EMA (~0.1765) and 200-period EMA (~0.1745) formed a tight range. This suggests a possible consolidation phase before a breakout, although bearish momentum appears to have a stronger hold in the last 3–4 hours.

RSI moved within the 45–55 range for most of the session, indicating sideways price action with no strong overbought or oversold conditions. However, MACD crossed the signal line twice in the last 24 hours, forming a weak golden cross and a subsequent bearish crossover, both failing to produce a breakout. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction during the late afternoon (ET), suggesting a potential shift in volatility. Price remains within the bands but is approaching the upper band at ~0.1785, where further resistance is expected.

Volume spiked during the 18:00–20:00 ET window and again in the early morning, but price failed to sustain above the 0.1760–0.1770 zone, indicating possible profit-taking or distribution at higher levels. A divergence appeared in the 15-minute chart between rising volume and flat-to-declining price, which could indicate weakening demand. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~0.1762 aligns with the 50-period EMA and could offer support or resistance, depending on volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis
Despite the visually identifiable MACD golden cross and bearish crossover signals, backtesting over a 3.5-year period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13 on ALGOUSDT revealed no statistically significant edge. Short-term returns after signals were mostly negative in the first 10 trading days, with win rates below 45%. While mean-reversion tendencies were noted after 16–30 days, the strategy did not outperform the benchmark. This suggests that discretionary use of the MACD indicator alone may not be sufficient for profitable trading in this pair, particularly in low-volatility consolidation environments.