Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• ALGOUSDT drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near session lows.
• Volume surged mid-session before tapering off in the final hours.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions with limited short-term upside momentum.
• A Dark Cloud Cover pattern emerged mid-day, signaling bearish potential.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near the lower band.

Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) opened at $0.1615 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.1634, and a low of $0.1552 before closing at $0.1589 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 13.68 million ALGO, and turnover amounted to approximately $2.17 million USD.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish bias, with a key support level forming around $0.1573–$0.1552, where volume spiked. A Dark Cloud Cover candle pattern appeared around 00:30 ET, signaling potential short-term bearish momentum. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged briefly during the morning but failed to gain traction. A doji near $0.1553 reflected indecision and possible exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.1600, while the 20-period MA sits at $0.1595. Longer-term, the 200-period daily MA remains above current price, indicating a structural bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, suggesting continued downward pressure. RSI is in oversold territory (~25), raising the possibility of a near-term bounce, though bearish exhaustion is still a concern. A divergence between RSI and price could signal a deeper bearish phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-session, with the bands widening to over $0.0030. Price has since pulled closer to the lower band, suggesting a potential rebound. A breakout above the upper band would signal renewed buying interest, but this appears unlikely in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1.3 million ALGO during the early morning hours, coinciding with a sharp selloff to $0.1553. Notional turnover confirmed this price drop with a corresponding increase in dollar value. In the last few hours, volume has trended downward despite some consolidation, indicating reduced participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at $0.1570, where price found temporary resistance. The 38.2% retracement level at $0.1597 has become a potential near-term target if a rebound occurs. Daily chart retracements suggest the $0.1630 level is the first major resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was implemented based on the Dark Cloud Cover pattern detected on 2025-11-04, which triggered a short entry. Positions are held for a maximum of 3 days and closed at the end of the period. Using close prices and no additional filters, this setup allows for a clean evaluation of the bearish signal’s efficacy. The results, including hit ratio, drawdown, and cumulative PnL, are available for review. Investors can adjust parameters like stop-loss or holding period for further optimization, depending on risk appetite and market conditions.