Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-04

• Price declined from 0.2310 to 0.2247 amid bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD show weakening bullish sentiment and oversold territory.
• Volume surged in early session before tailing off, suggesting exhaustion.
• 0.2230–0.2250 acts as critical support cluster.
• Volatility expanded early, then narrowed, indicating consolidation ahead.

Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) opened at 0.2262 on 2025-10-03 16:00 ET and traded between 0.2251 and 0.2310 before closing at 0.2247 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached approximately 18.5 million, with notional turnover at $4.2 million.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern after reaching a short-lived intraday high of 0.2310 on a 15-minute time frame. A long bearish candle closed at 0.2247, suggesting exhaustion in the upper range. The 0.2250–0.2270 zone appears to be a key battleground, with a potential support cluster forming below 0.2250. A doji formed near the 0.2250 level, signaling indecision, and a potential reversal may be in play if the price stabilizes above this level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed below price action, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages continue to provide structural support near 0.2200, while the 200-day MA remains well below the current price, offering a potential floor.

MACD & RSI

MACD shows a negative crossover with the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI, at 29, indicates oversold conditions, which may encourage short-term bounces. However, a close above 0.2250 would be needed to reestablish bullish bias. The RSI appears to be diverging from price at lower levels, suggesting a possible near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price action expanded volatility early in the session, reaching the upper band before collapsing toward the lower band. The current price of 0.2247 sits near the lower Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, indicating potential for a mean reversion trade, assuming the 0.2230–0.2250 zone holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early afternoon (ET) during a sharp move from 0.2283 to 0.2278, confirming the bearish reversal. However, volume declined significantly in the latter half of the session, suggesting lack of follow-through from the shorts. Notional turnover moved in line with volume, with no notable divergences.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key 15-minute retracement levels include 0.2273 (38.2%) and 0.2258 (61.8%), both of which appear to be acting as temporary barriers. Daily retracement levels suggest a deeper correction could test 0.2190 before a rebound is likely, assuming the 50-day MA holds as support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for ALGOUSDT involves entering a short position upon a bearish engulfing pattern forming at or near the 20-period EMA, with a stop loss placed above the recent swing high. A trailing stop could be used once the RSI moves below 40, indicating sustained bearish momentum. If the price closes below 0.2230 and remains there for two consecutive candles, a target at 0.2200 becomes viable. This approach could be further refined by incorporating volume divergence as a confirmation signal, ensuring that price breaks lower on increasing volume.