Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) broke above 0.2450 in early trading before consolidating midday.
• Price found temporary resistance near 0.2475–0.2480, with bearish divergence in volume and RSI.
• Volatility expanded as price moved between 0.2330 and 0.2485, with 24-hour volume surging past 21M ALGO.
• Bollinger Bands and MACD suggest momentum is shifting, with a potential reversal forming above 0.2450.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligns near 0.2435–0.2440, a potential consolidation target for the next 24 hours.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-17, ALGOUSDT opened at 0.2337 and traded as low as 0.2330 before rising to a 24-hour high of 0.2487 at 14:15 ET. The 15-minute chart closed at 0.2446 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total 24-hour volume was 34.4M ALGO, with a notional turnover of approximately $8.4M, indicating increased trading activity.

Structure & Formations

ALGOUSDT formed a bullish ascending triangle from 0.2330 to 0.2487 during the 24-hour period, with key resistance levels forming around 0.2470–0.2485. A large bullish engulfing pattern was visible at 19:45 ET, confirming a short-term reversal from a downtrend to a potential rally. The price has since tested this area twice without a breakout, suggesting a buildup of bearish pressure. A doji formed near 0.2480 at 14:15 ET, indicating indecision and a potential top. A key support level has emerged around 0.2435–0.2440, where the 20- and 50-period SMAs now converge.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are currently above the price, supporting a bearish bias, while the 50-period EMA crossed below the 100-period EMA on the daily chart, signaling a potential bearish shift. The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 04:30 ET, marking a bearish crossover. Momentum appears to be slowing as the MACD histogram has been shrinking since 08:00 ET.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 15-minute chart hit an overbought level at 74 near 13:45 ET, followed by a sharp pullback and a move into oversold territory below 30 at 06:15 ET. Price remains within the Bollinger Bands, sitting closer to the lower band at 0.2436–0.2441, suggesting a potential bounce. A narrow Bollinger contraction was observed between 02:30 and 03:45 ET, followed by a sharp expansion after the 13:45 ET high. This suggests a possible continuation of the current consolidation phase.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume spiked sharply at 18:15 and 19:30 ET, corresponding to a move from 0.2352 to 0.2386, and again at 14:15 ET during the high of 0.2487. However, volume during the 14:30–15:00 ET pullback was relatively muted, indicating possible lack of conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover also saw a significant increase during the 18:15 ET and 14:15 ET sessions. A divergence between price and volume is emerging at the 0.2470–0.2485 resistance cluster, suggesting potential exhaustion in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.2330 to 0.2487, the 61.8% level currently aligns with 0.2435–0.2440, which coincides with the 50-period SMA. This area appears to be consolidating as a potential support zone for the next 24 hours. Daily chart retracement levels also show the 38.2% level at 0.2465–0.2470, which may act as a near-term resistance if the bullish trend resumes.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtest strategy, one could consider a mean-reversion setup based on the observed Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion. A short-biased trade could be triggered when price breaks below the 20-period SMA after touching the upper Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss above the most recent high and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the current market structure, this approach could offer a risk-reward profile of approximately 1:2. However, a break above 0.2475 with confirmation by volume and RSI would invalidate the short setup and suggest a shift to a neutral or bullish stance.