Algorand Faces Uphill Battle to Surpass Stellar in 2025

As the altcoin rotation gains momentum in 2025, a new debate has emerged among investors: Can Algorand (ALGO) surpass Stellar (XLM) this year?

Currently, Algorand’s market capitalization stands at $2.05 billion, while Stellar’s is significantly higher at $13.43 billion. In terms of price, ALGO is trading at $0.2373, and XLM at $0.4330. On the surface, Stellar maintains a substantial lead.

Both ALGO and XLM have dedicated communities and have been actively promoting real-world adoption, particularly in payments, tokenized assets, and identity. However, when it comes to price performance, Stellar has outperformed over the past 12 months. On a yearly basis, XLM’s price has increased by over 330%, while ALGO has seen a more modest rise of 66.7%. This significant gap suggests that a flip is unlikely from a market capitalization perspective. Nevertheless, ALGO has been quietly building a foundation that could potentially close this gap more rapidly than anticipated.

One pivotal moment occurred when Tether (USDT) exited Algorand, effective September 1, 2025. This move had minimal impact because USDT was never dominant on ALGO, with only $841,600 worth circulating on the chain compared to over $73 million in USDC. The Algorand Foundation responded by highlighting USDC’s strength and pointing to ongoing stablecoin growth. Additionally, new institutional partnerships, such as the one with Midas for tokenized assets, along with ISO 20022 compliance, helped mitigate the negative headlines.

GPT was asked to analyze the numbers and market behavior to predict whether Algorand could surpass Stellar in 2025. Considering current growth rates, ecosystem momentum, and structural market advantages, GPT estimated a 12% to 15% probability that Algorand’s price will surpass Stellar’s market capitalization during 2025. While this probability is not high enough to warrant a significant portfolio shift, it is sufficient to keep Algorand on investors' radars.

Several factors could contribute to ALGO’s price rise. Algorand has a leaner market cap, making it easier to move. It is also building under the radar with less hype but more institutional alignment. If XLM’s price slows down or consolidates, ALGO could catch up with just one or two significant news cycles. Currently, Stellar is leading the race. However, Algorand’s foundations, particularly in tokenized finance, compliance, and developer incentives, could fuel its next breakout.