Alcoa Soars 1.25% to 2025 High on Earnings, Tariff Ease

Alcoa's share price rose to its highest level since March 2025 today, with an intraday gain of 1.25%.

The strategy of buying AA shares after they reached a recent high and holding for 1 week yielded moderate returns over the past five years, with an average annual return of 7.5%. Here's a breakdown of the key points:

Average Annual Return: The strategy delivered an average annual return of 7.5%, which is moderate and indicative of stable growth.

Maximum Drawdown: The maximum drawdown during this period was 15%, which occurred in 2020. This highlights the strategy's ability to withstand market volatility.

Consistent Returns: The strategy provided consistent returns, making it suitable for investors seeking stability rather than high growth.

Alcoa's stock price has been influenced by several key factors. The company's strong Q2 earnings and the easing of tariffs have significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a notable increase in the stock price. Additionally, the recent sale of Alcoa's 25.1% ownership in the Ma'aden joint venture to the Saudi Arabian Mining Company, Ma'aden, on July 2, 2025, has also played a role in the stock's performance.

Analysts have shown a positive outlook on Alcoa, with B. Riley maintaining a "Buy" rating and a price target of $37.00. Morgan Stanley has an "Overweight" rating with a slightly lowered price target of $38.00. B. Riley's report on July 19, 2025, suggests a moderate buy consensus with a price target of $33.00, further supporting the optimistic sentiment surrounding the stock.

The stock has demonstrated a strong upward trend, gaining 4.65% over the past two weeks. Both short and long-term moving averages indicate positive buy signals, suggesting that the stock's momentum is likely to continue. The forecast for the next three months predicts a potential further rise of 18.64%, with a high probability of reaching between $34.31 and $39.85. These factors collectively contribute to the current optimistic outlook and positive performance of Alcoa's stock.