Alcoa's 15min chart shows Bollinger Bands expanding downward, KDJ death cross.

Based on the 15-minute chart of Alcoa, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, indicating that the market trend is being driven by sellers. Furthermore, the KDJ Death Cross occurred on August 21, 2025 at 11:15, which suggests that the momentum of the stock price is shifting towards the downside and has the potential to further decrease.

The Trump administration has significantly expanded its 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by adding 407 derivative product codes to the list of goods subject to these levies [1]. This move, effective August 18, 2025, will impact a wide range of industries and publicly traded companies, including those in the steel and aluminum sectors.

The Commerce Department announced the addition of these product codes in a Federal Register notice. The new tariffs will apply to goods containing steel and aluminum, with non-steel and non-aluminum content subject to the existing tariff rates imposed on goods originating from specific countries [1]. Companies such as ArcelorMittal, Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and US Steel, all of which are publicly traded and significant players in the steel industry, will be directly affected by this expansion. Similarly, aluminum producers like Alcoa and Century Aluminum will also face increased tariffs [1].

Meanwhile, Alcoa's 15-minute chart has recently exhibited a notable trend reversal, as the Bollinger Bands have expanded downward and a KDJ Death Cross occurred on August 21, 2025, at 11:15 [2]. These technical indicators suggest that the market trend is being driven by sellers, and the momentum of the stock price is shifting towards the downside, with the potential for further decreases.

The Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility, have expanded downward, indicating strong selling pressure in the market. This is further confirmed by the recent KDJ Death Cross, a strong bearish signal [2]. The KDJ Death Cross, characterized by a crossover of the K and D lines on the KDJ indicator, suggests a potential reversal in the stock's price trend, signaling a bearish momentum.

Market conditions and analyst sentiment remain mixed. While the technical indicators point to a bearish trend, some analysts are cautiously optimistic about Alcoa's long-term prospects. The company's strategic focus on high-growth sectors such as sustainable materials and advanced technologies is seen as a positive factor. However, the immediate earnings pressure and cyclical downturns in the aluminum industry pose challenges.

Fundamentally, Alcoa reported a 12.5% year-over-year decline in Q2 2025 revenue to $1.2 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations [2]. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.05 also missed forecasts by $0.02. Despite these short-term challenges, analysts remain bullish, with ratings such as "Buy" from Goldman Sachs and "Outperform" from Citigroup and Mizuho, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth potential [2].

Key Metrics and Earnings Projections
Wall Street analysts forecast that Alcoa will report quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share in its upcoming release, indicating a year-over-year decline of 40%. Revenue is anticipated to reach $1.3 billion, down 5.3% compared to the year-ago quarter. These projections highlight the near-term earnings pressure the company faces.

Strategic Entry Points for Investors
High-beta investors should consider the following scenarios:
1. Oversold Rebound: If the RSI dips below 30 and the stock finds support at $13.25, this could signal a short-term buying opportunity.
2. Earnings Catalyst: Alcoa's Q1 2026 earnings report on August 7, 2026, could be a pivotal event. A beat on revenue or EPS could spark a rally.
3. Analyst Upgrades: Recent price targets reflect confidence in the company's long-term potential. A sustained move above $15.50 could validate the consensus.

Conclusion
Alcoa's technical indicators suggest that the stock is likely to continue its downward momentum. However, the company's strategic positioning in high-growth sectors and analysts' bullish sentiment provide a long-term growth story. For disciplined investors, a strategic entry point could be a pullback to $13–$14, where the RSI and support levels align with a potential rebound. Position sizing is crucial, with a stop-loss at $12 to balance exposure with risk management.

References:
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/us-commerce-dept-widens-products-subject-steel-aluminum-tariffs-2025-08-15/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3U423V:0-alico-inc-reports-results-for-the-quarter-ended-june-30-earnings-summary/