Alchemix/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) declined from a high of $13.58 to $10.36 over 24 hours amid mixed momentum signals.
• Price found support near $10.22 after a sharp drop, while RSI indicated oversold levels.
• Turnover surged to $486,123,000, suggesting heightened trading activity but divergent price outcomes.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $10.12 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET and closed at $10.36 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of $13.58 and a low of $10.22. Total 24-hour volume reached 244,129.77 ALCX, translating to a notional turnover of approximately $486,123,000.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period showed a bearish breakdown from key resistance around $12.65 to support at $10.22. A series of bearish engulfing patterns became apparent after the peak at $13.58, while a doji formed near $10.48, signaling indecision. Price may test the $10.22 level as a potential near-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, with the 50-EMA currently at ~$11.45 and the 20-EMA at ~$11.63. For daily data, the 50-day MA sits at ~$11.90 and the 200-day MA at ~$10.70. Price appears to be in a short-term bearish phase but remains above the long-term 200-day MA, suggesting potential for a rebound.

MACD & RSI

RSI closed at ~29, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD line crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence, confirming the downward momentum. A reversal signal could emerge if RSI closes above 30 with strong volume.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded at the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, reflecting heightened volatility and bearish pressure. A contraction in the bands was observed between $10.64 and $11.20, suggesting a potential reversal setup if price breaks out with high volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over $486 million, with the largest notional turnover occurring between $11.20 and $12.65. However, price failed to hold key levels despite high volume, indicating a lack of conviction among buyers. Divergence between volume and price suggests a potential bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the $10.22 to $13.58 swing are: 38.2% at ~$11.81 and 61.8% at ~$12.34. Price stalled at the 61.8% level during the consolidation phase and may retest it on a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the RSI "Overbought → Oversold" strategy on ALCXUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10 yielded negative results, with a total return of -59.7% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.21. The strategy involved entering long positions when RSI-14 crossed above 70 and exiting when it fell below 30, with 15% stop-loss, 30% take-profit, and a 20-day max holding period. The underperformance stemmed from frequent entries in a generally declining trend, leading to many early stop-outs. The results highlight the limitations of using RSI alone without trend filtering or a more adaptive exit strategy.

Looking ahead, Alchemix/Tether may consolidate near $10.36–$10.50 with a potential rebound into $11.00 if buyers step in near key Fib levels. However, a break below $10.22 could trigger further downside toward $9.80. Investors should monitor volume and RSI divergence for possible trend exhaustion or continuation cues.