Alchemix/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-30

• Price declined from $7.30 to $6.86 amid bearish momentum, breaking key support levels.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, hinting at potential rebounds.
• Volume surged during the sharp drop but faded as price stabilized near 6.86.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, indicating heightened volatility.
• No strong candlestick reversal patterns emerged, suggesting continued bearish bias.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $7.30 on October 29 at 16:00 ET and closed at $6.86 by 12:00 ET on October 30. The price experienced a sharp sell-off, hitting a low of $6.86. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 38,851.38, while turnover amounted to $276,420.71. The market appears to be in a bearish phase, with key support levels showing vulnerability to follow-through selling.

Structure & Formations

The price moved decisively lower, with multiple bearish patterns visible in the OHLCV data, particularly during the early morning hours. A large bearish candle formed at 04:30 ET, with volume surging to 6,993.99 as the price dropped from $7.20 to $7.02. Later, between 15:30 and 16:00 ET, the price hit a low of $6.86 on increased volume, suggesting a potential short-term support level has been breached. No strong bullish reversals emerged, and the structure appears to favor further downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remain above the current price, indicating a bearish bias. The 50-period line sits above $7.10, while the 20-period has fallen to around $7.05. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are aligned above the price, reinforcing the downward trend. The price is well below all major moving averages, which could continue to pressure bulls.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the sell-off and has remained below the signal line since 04:00 ET. The histogram has also turned bearish, amplifying the short-term bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 for much of the day, reaching as low as 27, indicating an oversold condition. However, oversold readings in a strong downtrend often fail to reverse, suggesting the bearish trend may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early morning sell-off, with the bands widening as the price moved lower. The price currently rests near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a continuation of the bearish move. A rebound to the middle band could be possible in the near term, especially if the RSI holds above 30. However, given the strength of the downward move, a retest of the lower band is more likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp price decline, especially around 04:30 ET and 15:30 ET, as the price fell below key support levels. Notional turnover increased correspondingly, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, after the lows, volume and turnover have both declined, indicating waning momentum. This could suggest a potential short-term pause in the downtrend, though without a strong reversal pattern, the bearish bias remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $7.30 to $6.86 shows that the 61.8% retracement level lies at $7.04, which was briefly tested early in the morning. The 38.2% level is at $7.18, which saw some rejection during the morning session. On the daily chart, Fibonacci retracement levels for the larger move could play a role in determining short-term resistance if the price stabilizes.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the Bearish-Engulfing pattern on ALCXUSDT could provide insight into the effectiveness of pattern-based strategies in this context. While the automated pattern detection returned an error earlier, a manual scan of the candlestick data shows no strong engulfing patterns during the 24-hour period. However, the large bearish candle at 04:30 ET (open $7.20, close $7.02) could qualify as a pseudo-engulfing pattern if validated. If this pattern is confirmed in the future, a short entry at the close of the engulfing candle may have led to a favorable trade, with a stop just above the high. Testing this hypothesis on a larger dataset would be required for confirmation.