Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview: October 28, 2025

• Price declined from $7.83 to $7.67 over 24 hours with bearish momentum.
• Volume increased during downward moves, confirming bearish bias.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern emerged near $7.73-7.69.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near lower band.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at potential near-term bounce.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $7.74 on October 27 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.67 by the same time on October 28. The pair reached a high of $7.95 and a low of $7.54 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was approximately 26,955.15 ALCX, with a notional turnover of roughly $206,236. This decline reflects a bearish sentiment, particularly in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a series of bearish formations, including a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern around $7.73–7.69 and a doji near $7.63. These patterns suggest weakening bullish momentum and growing bearish control. A key support level appears to be forming around $7.60–7.64, where the price has bounced twice in the last 8 hours. Resistance levels are evident at $7.70 and $7.75, where the price struggled to break through on multiple occasions.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain in a downtrend, with the 100-period line acting as a dynamic resistance. The price has been trading below all major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been negative for most of the session, with a declining trend in bullish momentum. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (below 30) in the last 6 hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, this does not guarantee a reversal, as the broader trend remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have shown a moderate expansion in volatility, especially during the sharp selloff from $7.80 to $7.65. The price has spent significant time near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A move back toward the middle band could offer a temporary reprieve for bulls, but a break below the lower band would confirm further weakness.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated during the bearish moves, especially after the 19:45 ET candle on October 27 and again around 15:45–16:00 ET on October 28. Turnover spiked during those periods as well, confirming the downward momentum. The divergence between volume and price in the early morning hours (around 02:00–04:00 ET) may hint at a lack of conviction in the upward bounce, with volume trailing price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $7.80 to $7.64, the 61.8% level is at $7.69, where the price has tested twice. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger bearish wave from $7.95 to $7.54 sits at $7.745, acting as a key pivot for the near term. A break above this level could signal a temporary pullback, but it’s unlikely to reverse the broader downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying RSI-oversold conditions on the 15-minute chart and holding the position for 5 days. During the observed 24-hour period, RSI hit oversold levels around $7.63, offering a potential entry signal. If a 5-day hold strategy were applied at that point, it would depend on whether the price could retrace toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $7.67 or higher. However, given the bearish structure and volume confirmation of the downtrend, this strategy would face considerable risk if applied in isolation without additional confirmatory indicators or filters.