Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price surged from $6.49 to $7.13 before consolidating near $6.66 at 12:00 ET.
• Momentum shifted mid-day with RSI reaching overbought territory.
• Volatility increased significantly post-05:00 ET, with volume peaking at 17,695.50.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $6.49 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET and reached a high of $7.13 by 05:15 ET, with a low of $6.45 and a close of $6.66 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 111,866.85, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $718,546. The market displayed a volatile 24-hour range, with significant intraday momentum shifts and several bullish and bearish signals.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the 24-hour period displayed a distinct bullish thrust from $6.49 to $7.13, followed by a consolidation phase. A key resistance level appears to be forming around the $6.97–$7.13 range, where the price faced moderate rejection during the early part of the day. Notable bearish signals appeared after 06:15 ET, with a strong candle closing near the lower end of its range, signaling exhaustion. A potential support level is emerging around $6.60–$6.66, where the price has shown a tendency to stabilize following sharp declines.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the early morning surge, indicating bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA is now lagging slightly behind the current price action. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) remain in a multi-day bullish bias, suggesting the asset is still in a strong medium-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the early hours of the day and remained above the signal line through 05:30 ET, confirming the bullish move. However, it has since flattened and turned slightly negative, indicating waning momentum. The RSI spiked into overbought territory (above 70) during the morning rally but has since corrected and fallen to mid-50s. This suggests the asset may be entering a phase of consolidation or potential pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning rally, pushing price near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. This expansion is often a precursor to either a breakout or a pullback. Currently, the price is consolidating closer to the middle band, suggesting a period of equilibrium. If the bands contract further, it could signal a potential break higher or lower depending on volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning hours, particularly between 05:15 and 06:45 ET, with the largest single 15-minute candle showing 17,695.50 volume and $125,900 in turnover. This high volume confirmed the bullish breakout. However, volume has since tapered off during the consolidation phase, with turnover decreasing to around $40–$50 per candle. This lower volume may indicate a pause in active accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing low of $6.45 and high of $7.13 show key levels at $6.78 (38.2%) and $6.61 (61.8%). The current price of $6.66 is near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential support. If the price holds above this level, it may indicate a retest of the 38.2% retracement at $6.78, which could serve as a pivot for further upside.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the recent overbought conditions observed in the RSI and assess potential reversals, a backtesting strategy could be applied to Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT). A typical setup would involve entering a long position when RSI(14) crosses above 70 and exiting when it falls below 60. Given the sharp RSI spike during the morning rally and the subsequent drop into the mid-50s, the RSI has now crossed below the 60 threshold, potentially signaling an exit point for a strategy adhering to this rule. The 14-day RSI period is appropriate for this timeframe, and if this strategy were applied, it would have captured the morning move but exited as consolidation set in. If the price fails to retest $6.97 in the next 24 hours, the strategy would likely remain neutral until another RSI crossover.