Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview

• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) rose 5.6% over 24 hours, reaching a high of $8.13.
• Price broke above the 20-period 15-minute moving average with strong bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked during the final 4 hours, suggesting increased buying pressure.
• RSI edged into overbought territory, indicating potential near-term consolidation.
• Volatility expanded as the price moved out of a 24-hour Bollinger Band contraction.

The price of Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $7.72 at 12:00 ET on October 12, 2025, and closed at $8.02 at 12:00 ET on October 13. Over the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of $8.13 and a low of $7.68, with a total volume of 13,900.69 and a notional turnover of approximately $110,198. The price showed a clear upward bias, especially after 19:30 ET, when a sharp rally began, pushing the price above key moving averages and into overbought RSI territory.

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a bullish breakout from a consolidation pattern, with key support identified at $7.89 and resistance at $8.04. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET, confirming the shift in momentum. The 20-period moving average was crossed to the upside, while the 50-period line was also breached, signaling continued short-term strength. The daily 50-period moving average (not shown in 15-min data) would need to be evaluated for longer-term alignment, but current 15-min data suggests continuation bias.

MACD crossed into positive territory around 19:30 ET, confirming the bullish move, and RSI surged above 70 into overbought territory by 21:00 ET. This could indicate short-term exhaustion, and a pullback into the 7.93–8.02 range may be likely. Bollinger Bands, which had been in a contraction earlier in the session, expanded as volatility increased, and price remained above the mid-band, a sign of continued bullish momentum. Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute swings highlighted key levels at 7.96 (38.2%) and 8.04 (61.8%), which acted as psychological support and resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical conditions—MACD in positive territory and RSI near overbought levels—this market environment could offer a suitable test for a momentum-based strategy. Using the described framework, we would generate entry signals on a MACD golden cross (positive crossover of the signal line) and exit on either a MACD death cross or RSI ≥ 70. A backtest from 2022-01-01 to today, using daily MACD and RSI values for ALCXUSDT, could validate the viability of this approach. If we encounter a data error with the indicator fetch, we can use the provided OHLCV data to calculate these indicators manually, ensuring the backtest remains robust and data-driven.