Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined by -13.3% over 24 hours, closing at $8.77, with a low at $8.70
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30 and volume surged at key breakdowns
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating increased uncertainty
• Notable bearish divergence between price and turnover seen after 09:00 ET
• Key support at $8.70 appears under test, with resistance at $9.13 showing repeated rejection

The Alchemix/Tether pair (ALCXUSDT) opened at $9.11 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $9.19 before retreating to a 24-hour low of $8.70 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. It closed at $8.77. Total volume amounted to 15,274.57 ALCX, with a notional turnover of approximately $134,430 USD. A bearish trend dominated, with price testing multiple support levels and showing signs of exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

Price has exhibited a clear bearish bias, with repeated rejections at the $9.13–$9.17 resistance range and a breakdown below key support at $9.05 and $8.95. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at $9.15–$9.06 during the early hours of 05:00–06:00 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. A doji formed at $9.06–$9.08 during 04:30–04:45 ET, indicating indecision before the downtrend resumed. Key support appears at $8.70–$8.85, with further downside risk if this level breaks.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA at ~$8.90 and the 20-period MA at ~$8.87 have both been breached. Daily chart indicators show the 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs trending lower, with price well below all of them, reinforcing a continuation of the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped below 30 during the 09:00–10:00 ET window, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a rebound. The MACD line crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence, particularly after 14:00 ET. While there were brief signs of weakening bearish momentum, the lack of follow-through from the RSI suggests bears are still in control. A closing above $9.13 may rekindle bullish momentum, but that seems unlikely in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 13:30–15:30 ET window, reflecting growing uncertainty and volatility. Price closed near the lower band at ~$8.77, suggesting a potential near-term bottom could be forming. However, without a clear reversal candle or volume confirmation, it’s likely the bands will continue to guide downward movement until a test of the $8.70 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown at $9.05–$9.00, with over 500 ALCX traded in multiple 15-minute intervals between 14:00 and 15:45 ET. Turnover also increased in line with price declines, confirming the bearish action. A divergence appeared between price and turnover between 10:00–12:00 ET, with turnover declining while price continued to fall. This suggests some exhaustion in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the key swing from $8.70 to $9.19 was tested at $8.93–$8.95, but price broke through without forming a strong reversal. The 61.8% level (~$8.86) also failed to provide a strong bounce, and price continued lower. On the 15-minute chart, retracements from the $9.19 high to $9.04 low showed similar bearish confirmation, reinforcing the current trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying breakdowns on the 15-minute chart, particularly when the RSI drops below 30 and price closes below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages. A short entry could be triggered upon a close below key support levels, with a stop loss placed just above the nearest resistance (e.g., $9.05). A take-profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci level or a 5-7% move in the direction of the trend. This approach aligns with the bearish structure observed in ALCXUSDT over the last 24 hours, where key support levels were broken with confirmation from both volume and momentum indicators.