Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview – 24-Hour Analysis

• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) dropped to a 24-hour low of $5.01 before recovering to close near $7.52 at 12:00 ET.
• Momentum reversed sharply in the last 6 hours, forming bullish consolidation patterns and a key support rebound at $5.01.
• Volatility surged with a massive 15-minute candle from $7.51 to $5.01, confirming a bearish breakdown and subsequent recovery.
• Notional turnover spiked over $340,000 in the 21:45–22:00 ET window, aligning with the sharp price rebound and indicating strong interest.
• The RSI hit oversold levels (<30) in the early session, followed by a sharp reversal, suggesting potential short-term buying pressure.

ALCXUSDT opened at $8.57 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET and dropped to an intraday low of $5.01 before closing at $7.52 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 253,320.52 ALCX, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.65 million. The pair formed a sharp bearish breakdown followed by a strong bounce, indicating a potential reversal.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart shows a dramatic bearish breakdown from $8.57 to $5.01, followed by a strong recovery that closed at $7.52. This forms a “V” bottom structure near the $5.01 level, which acted as a strong support. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the breakdown phase, while the recovery phase showed a series of bullish spinning tops and a small bullish engulfing pattern at $7.48–$7.52. The price is currently consolidating around $7.50–$7.55, suggesting a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging near $7.45–$7.50, with the price currently above both, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at ~$7.40 and 200-period MA at ~$7.60, with the price in a bearish crossover territory. However, the recent rebound has brought the price above the 50-period MA, hinting at a potential short-term reversal.

The 12-period MACD crossed above the signal line in the last 4 hours, showing a shift from bearish to neutral momentum. RSI is now in neutral territory (~52–55), having recovered from the earlier oversold condition (<30). This suggests that the bearish exhaustion may be ending, and accumulation could be building.

Volatility and Turnover

Volatility spiked dramatically during the 21:45–22:00 ET window, with a 15-minute candle printing a $2.50 range (high of $7.6, low of $5.01). This was the highest volatility spike of the 24-hour period. The volume during this candle was 39,383.4993 ALCX, with a notional value of approximately $260,000—significantly higher than earlier activity. This massive price drop and volume suggests a possible stop-loss trigger or large liquidation event.

In the subsequent 24 hours, the price rebounded strongly with volume remaining elevated (averaging ~1,500–2,500 ALCX per 15-minute candle), confirming that the rebound has strong buyer participation. However, notional turnover has not reached the earlier peak, suggesting reduced selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $8.65 to $5.01 shows key levels at the 38.2% (~$6.80) and 61.8% (~$6.20) levels. The price found support at the 61.8% level before rebounding. The recent recovery has pushed the price above the 50% retracement (~$6.83), with current consolidation near $7.50 suggesting potential resistance ahead. A break above $7.60 could signal a larger test of the 61.8% retracement as a potential support-turned-resistance level in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a long position when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, combined with an RSI reading above 50 and a bullish engulfing candle. This setup aligns with the recent price action observed in ALCXUSDT, particularly around 22:00–22:15 ET when the price closed above both moving averages and RSI showed a strong reversal. The signal would have triggered a long entry at ~$7.45–$7.50, with a stop loss placed below the $7.35 level and a take profit near $7.65–$7.70. Given the recent strength and accumulation pattern, this strategy could serve as a viable short-term play for traders seeking to capitalize on the potential continuation of the rebound.