Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-12

• ALCXUSDT opened at $7.58, hit a high of $7.65, a low of $7.22, and closed at $7.51 after 24 hours.
• A sharp selloff from $7.65 to $7.22 early on was partially recovered in the latter half of the day.
• Volume surged at the low of $7.22, but turnover confirmation was mixed.
• A key resistance near $7.65 and support near $7.22 were tested, with a bullish reversal candle forming around $7.25.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 25, hinting at potential near-term buying interest.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $7.58 on October 11, 2025, at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $7.65, a low of $7.22, and closed at $7.51 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was approximately 41,623.61 units, with a notional turnover of $298,196.25. The price experienced a significant intraday decline, followed by a partial rebound, indicating possible short-term volatility.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick chart reveals a strong bearish impulse from $7.65 to $7.22, which was later partially retraced. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $7.43, followed by a bullish reversal candle at $7.25, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment. A doji formed near $7.36, indicating indecision at that level. Key support appears to be forming around $7.22–$7.25, with resistance retesting $7.50–$7.60 as a possible ceiling for the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show the price is currently consolidating slightly above the 20SMA, while the 50SMA provides dynamic support near $7.30. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA indicate a mixed signal, with the 50DMA currently at $7.45 and the 200DMA near $7.35. The price appears to be oscillating between these key averages, suggesting a potential trading range setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming the bearish momentum, but has since started to show a potential divergence. RSI hit an oversold level near 25 around $7.25, indicating possible near-term buying pressure. While the RSI remains in neutral territory above 50, it shows a slight upward bias, suggesting that over the next 24 hours, a rebound may be in the cards, provided volume increases accordingly.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted during the bearish leg, particularly in the $7.30–$7.40 range, before the price broke down to the lower band at $7.22. This contraction was followed by a breakout to the downside, suggesting a release of pent-up volatility. The current price is hovering near the mid-band, indicating a potential retesting of the lower band for confirmation of support or a reversal in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred during the price drop to $7.22, with a large 15-minute candle recording over 5,459 units traded. However, the subsequent rally was supported by lower volumes, raising questions about the sustainability of the bounce. Notional turnover was notably higher during the selloff, confirming the bearish move, but the follow-through buying was weaker, indicating that the market may be waiting for a catalyst to drive the next leg.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the $7.65 to $7.22 move, key levels are at 38.2% ($7.43) and 61.8% ($7.32). The price appears to have found a short-term floor at $7.25, which is close to the 61.8% retracement of a smaller upward swing. On a larger scale, the 61.8% retracement of the prior daily range is near $7.50, which may serve as a near-term resistance if the rebound continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price consolidation and the formation of potential reversal patterns at key Fibonacci and moving average levels, a backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish confirmation candle forming above $7.50, with a stop loss placed below $7.45. A target could be set at the 23.6% retracement of the $7.65–$7.22 move at $7.58. This approach leverages the confluence of technical indicators and market structure to identify a low-risk high-reward setup, assuming volume increases to confirm the move.