Alaska Air Q3 Earnings: Fuel Costs Weigh on Profit Estimates

Alaska Air Group has estimated its third-quarter profit at the low end of its forecast due to higher fuel costs. The airline's revenue is expected to be at the midpoint of its forecast. Alaska Air Group operates through its subsidiaries Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Holdings, Horizon Air Industries, and McGee Air Services, serving over 140 destinations in North America, Central America, Asia, and across the Pacific.

Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK) reported a decline in its stock price on Monday following the announcement of lower third-quarter profit expectations. The company attributed the reduced outlook primarily to elevated fuel costs and operational challenges during the summer season Alaska Air falls after lowering Q3 profit expectations^[1].

The carrier initially guided its Q3 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to be at the low end of its previously stated range of $1.00 to $1.40, compared to the consensus expectation of $1.35. This adjustment was driven by high fuel costs and operational disruptions, including weather and air traffic control issues. The ongoing refinery disruptions on the West Coast have pushed the expected economic fuel price to $2.50–$2.55 per gallon, up from the prior expectation of approximately $2.45 Alaska Air falls after lowering Q3 profit expectations^[1].

Additionally, the July IT outage continues to impact the company's financials, now expected to have a more significant cost impact than revenue. The IT outage, linked to a faulty software update, disrupted hundreds of flights and stranded thousands of passengers during the peak summer travel season Alaska Air estimates third-quarter profit at low end of forecast on fuel costs^[3].

Despite these challenges, Alaska Air Group noted that revenue trends remain strong. Unit revenue is tracking near the high end of its prior guidance range of flat to low-single-digit growth. Notably, yields turned positive year-over-year in August, driven by premium cabin strength and a double-digit rebound in corporate revenue since Q2 2025. The successful launch of the new Atmos Rewards loyalty program and the Atmos Rewards Summit Visa Infinite Card also contributed to positive momentum Alaska Air falls after lowering Q3 profit expectations^[1].

Alaska Air Group operates through its subsidiaries Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Holdings, Horizon Air Industries, and McGee Air Services, serving over 140 destinations in North America, Central America, Asia, and across the Pacific. The company offers a range of services, including group business travel, meeting and convention travel, charter flights, world travel with partners, and Alaska Lounge Alaska Air Group announces leadership transition at Hawaiian Airlines^[2].

Shares of Alaska Air Group fell 2.2% in premarket action on Monday, reflecting investor concerns over the reduced profit expectations and operational challenges Alaska Air falls after lowering Q3 profit expectations^[1].