U.S. Airstrikes on Iran Seen as Peak of Military Involvement, Market Bullish

The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran's top nuclear facilities have been described as a "TikTok-style war" by Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group. This characterization suggests that the strikes are more akin to brief, dramatic attacks rather than the beginning of a prolonged military campaign. Bremmer's analysis indicates that these strikes may represent the peak of U.S. military involvement in the region, given President Donald Trump's desire to avoid a drawn-out conflict.

In a video posted on Sunday, Bremmer drew a parallel between prolonged wars, which often become the subject of multi-episode documentaries, and the brief, catchy videos on TikTok. He emphasized that the current situation does not resemble a large-scale, grinding war that would be opposed by most Americans, including those in Trump's own base. Instead, he described the strikes as "very, very spectacular—couple of major strikes and done," which could garner support from Trump's base.

Bremmer pointed out that Trump has made similarly dramatic moves in the past without leading to major escalations. In January 2020, Trump ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander, in response to attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Saudi oil facilities. Iran's retaliation was symbolic and did not cause significant damage, leading Bremmer to expect a similar response this time. If Iran's retaliation is limited and does not result in large-scale casualties among U.S. servicemen and women, it is plausible that this represents the peak of U.S. military involvement.

Bremmer also noted that Iran is unlikely to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade, as the country's export-oriented oil infrastructure has not been targeted by Israeli or U.S. missiles. Earlier Israeli attacks focused on Iranian energy infrastructure serving domestic consumers, further reducing the likelihood of Iran taking drastic measures.

Dan Ives, Managing Director of Wedbush Securities, offered a bullish perspective on the market's reaction to the U.S. attack on Iran. He suggested that the market would view the Iran threat as now neutralized, which is positive for growth in the broader Middle East and ultimately the tech sector. Ives expected that, while it may take some time for the conflict to settle, the market would view the worst as now in the past, leading to an upward trend in stocks.