Airbus Soars as Boeing Stumbles: Why the Middle East is Betting on European Wings

The Middle East's aviation giants are placing their bets—and billions—on Airbus as Boeing's supply chain and regulatory crises unravel. From Riyadh Air's pivot to Airbus's A321neo to Etihad's A350-1000 expansion, the Gulf's airlines are prioritizing reliability over risk. For investors, this is no passing trend: Airbus's dominance in wide-body orders is now a long-term growth story.

The Boeing Problem: Delays, Disarray, and Distrust

Boeing's struggles are well-documented, but their cascading impact on Middle Eastern airlines has rarely been clearer. Riyadh Air, Saudi Arabia's ambitious new carrier, initially relied on Boeing's 787 Dreamliners to launch operations in 2025. But delays in production—stemming from supply chain bottlenecks and FAA-imposed caps on 737 MAX output—have pushed its start to late 2025 at best. Even then, only four of eight promised 787s will arrive, forcing the airline to repurpose a secondhand 787-9 as a “technical spare” for training.

Boeing's woes extend beyond the 787. The 777X program, which was supposed to compete with Airbus's A350, has been shelved until 2026 at least, while labor strikes and quality issues plague its 737 MAX assembly lines. For airlines like Riyadh Air, which now plans to diversify its fleet with 60 A321neos to mitigate Boeing's unreliability, the message is clear: Europe's wings are the safer bet.

Airbus's Gulf Playbook: Reliability Meets Ambition

While Boeing falters, Airbus is locking in long-term contracts that will fuel revenue for years. Etihad Airways' recent deal exemplifies this: the Abu Dhabi-based carrier has taken six A350-1000s since 2019 and has 14 more on order, with delivery timelines consistently outpacing Boeing's. These aircraft now power Etihad's expansion into North America (e.g., Atlanta) and Asia, where their 371-seat capacity and 25% lower CO2 emissions align perfectly with the airline's sustainability goals.

The A350's efficiency isn't the only draw. Airbus's production discipline—despite its own supply chain challenges—has kept delivery slots intact. Unlike Boeing, which faces FAA-imposed caps of just 31 737 MAXs per month, Airbus's A350 output, while constrained at six per month, is still prioritized for key Gulf partners. Riyadh Air's 2026 A321neo deliveries, for instance, suggest special arrangements may have been made with lessors or accelerated manufacturing slots—a sign of Airbus's flexibility.

The Investment Case: Airbus's Gulf Monopoly and Its Payoff

The data is stark. Middle Eastern carriers account for over 20% of Airbus's order backlog, and that share will grow. With Emirates and Qatar Airways also favoring A350s over Boeing's delayed 777X, Airbus is securing a de facto monopoly on wide-body orders in the Gulf—a region driving 30% of global aviation demand growth.

For investors, the calculus is simple:
1. Lower Risk: Airbus's delivery reliability reduces operational uncertainty for airlines, making its stock a safer play in a volatile sector.
2. Scale and Leverage: Every A350 or A321neo sold to the Gulf creates recurring revenue through maintenance, spare parts, and upgrades.
3. Long-Term Growth: Riyadh Air's Vision 2030 plans—200+ aircraft and 100+ destinations—rely on Airbus's capacity to deliver.

Why Act Now?

The window to capitalize is narrowing. Boeing's delays have already forced Gulf carriers to accelerate Airbus orders, and the trend will accelerate post-2025 as airlines like Riyadh Air begin operations. With Airbus stock trading at a 20% discount to its 2023 highs and Boeing's valuation reeling from its missteps, the time to bet on Airbus is now.

Investment Thesis: Buy Airbus (AIR.PA) for its Gulf dominance, supply chain resilience, and the Middle East's insatiable demand for air travel. Boeing's struggles aren't a blip—they're a seismic shift. The future of aviation is in Europe, and Airbus is flying ahead.

This article is not investment advice. Consult a financial advisor before making decisions.