Airbus's Production Momentum and Order Backlogs: Catalysts for Sustained Investor Returns?

The aviation industry's recovery post-pandemic has reignited demand for commercial aircraft, positioning Airbus as a focal point for investors seeking exposure to long-term growth. However, the company's ability to translate its robust order backlog into consistent production and delivery rates will determine whether this demand translates into sustained investor returns. As of September 2025, Airbus faces a critical juncture: while its A320neo family production has accelerated, bottlenecks in supply chains and underperforming programs like the A350 and A220 threaten to delay delivery targets. This analysis examines how Airbus's production momentum, supply-chain resilience, and order backlogs could shape its trajectory-and what this means for investors.

Production Momentum: Progress, but Gaps Remain

Airbus's September 2025 production data reveals a mixed picture. The A320neo family, its workhorse narrowbody program, produced 68 aircraft in September, exceeding the program's target of 50 per month but falling short of the 75-per-month rate needed to meet the 2025 delivery goal of 820 aircraft, according to a FlightPlan report. Based on year-to-date estimates, Airbus would need to average 90 A320neo family aircraft per month in the final quarter to achieve its target, the FlightPlan data show. This gap underscores the fragility of its production ramp-up.

Meanwhile, the A350 and A220 programs remain problematic. The A350, a key widebody offering, produced only five aircraft in September, below its six-per-month target, per the FlightPlan report. The A220, which Airbus plans to scale to 14 units per month by 2026, lagged further behind, according to that FlightPlan data. These underperformances highlight systemic supply-chain challenges, particularly in sourcing critical components like engines and avionics, as noted in an AeroTime report.

Supply-Chain Strength: A Double-Edged Sword

Airbus's production efficiency has benefited from a favorable foreign exchange environment and improved supplier coordination, as evidenced by its Q1 2025 revenue of €13.5 billion-a 6% increase year-over-year, the AeroTime report notes. CEO Guillaume Faury noted that 60 aircraft were complete and awaiting engines in September 2025, signaling strong production-line efficiency, according to an AeroTime article. However, this progress is offset by persistent bottlenecks. For instance, the A350's production rate remains stuck at five per month, with Airbus acknowledging it must first achieve consistent six-per-month output before scaling to 10 units by 2026, the FlightPlan data indicate.

Investors must weigh Airbus's short-term production gains against its reliance on suppliers like Rolls-Royce (for A350 engines) and CFM International (for A320neo engines). Any disruption in these relationships could exacerbate delivery delays, eroding confidence in the company's ability to meet long-term targets.

Order Backlogs: A Long-Term Tailwind

Airbus's order backlog remains a critical tailwind. As of August 2025, the company reported 25,125 total orders, with the A320neo family accounting for the majority, the AeroTime article reported. This backlog, combined with a 99-order surge in August alone noted by that AeroTime article, suggests robust demand for its narrowbody aircraft. However, the A350 and A330neo programs-both of which are underperforming-face aging fleets that operators are increasingly replacing. For example, the A330neo saw only one delivery in September 2025, per the FlightPlan data, but its demand is expected to rise as airlines phase out older A330ceo models.

The backlog's scale (8,726 commercial aircraft as of March 2025, the AeroTime report shows) provides Airbus with a buffer to absorb short-term production hiccups. Yet, converting these orders into revenue hinges on Airbus's ability to maintain delivery momentum. If the company fails to meet its 2025 target of 820 aircraft, it risks deferring revenue into 2026, which could pressure short-term earnings and investor sentiment.

Investor Implications: Balancing Risks and Rewards

For investors, Airbus's trajectory hinges on two factors: its capacity to resolve supply-chain bottlenecks and its ability to leverage its order backlog. The company's Q1 2025 results demonstrated that revenue growth can outpace delivery volumes-a 6% revenue increase despite a 136-unit delivery total, as the AeroTime report highlighted. This suggests that Airbus's pricing power and foreign exchange benefits could cushion short-term production shortfalls. However, these advantages are temporary.

Long-term returns will depend on Airbus's success in scaling A350 and A220 production. If the company achieves its 2027 target of 75 A320 Family aircraft per month, it could unlock significant revenue from its backlog. Conversely, persistent underperformance in widebody programs could limit diversification and expose Airbus to cyclical risks.

Conclusion

Airbus's production momentum and order backlog present a compelling case for long-term investor returns-but not without caveats. The company's narrowbody strength and backlog depth offer a solid foundation, while supply-chain challenges and widebody underperformance introduce volatility. Investors who prioritize resilience over short-term volatility may find Airbus's strategic pivot toward automation and supplier diversification-announced in Q1 2025, as the AeroTime report described-a promising sign. However, those seeking immediate gains should monitor quarterly delivery metrics closely. In the end, Airbus's ability to balance production efficiency with supply-chain agility will define its success in the next phase of the aviation recovery.