Airbus's May Deliveries Signal Strategic Silence Ahead of Paris Air Show Catalyst

Airbus delivered 51 aircraft in May 2025, bringing its year-to-date (YTD) tally to 243—a 5% decline compared to the first five months of 2024, when it delivered 256 aircraft. While this figure may raise eyebrows, the data masks a deliberate strategy: Airbus is holding fire on order announcements ahead of the 2025 Paris Air Show, set to begin on June 17. This strategic silence positions the company to unleash a potential surge in orders during the event, which historically accounts for 40% of annual deals for major airframers. Investors should view the YTD lag as a temporary pause, not a sign of weakness, as Airbus prepares to showcase its resilience and long-term growth drivers.

May Deliveries: A Pause, Not a Decline

Airbus's May deliveries included 40 narrowbodies (39 A320neo variants and 1 A220), 6 widebodies (3 A330-900s and 3 A350-900s), and 5 A220s. While narrowbody dominance remains intact, the slowdown reflects two strategic choices:
1. Supply Chain Prioritization: Airbus is diverting resources to clear a backlog of A350-1000s (75 undelivered units as of April) and address engine shortages from GE Aerospace.
2. Order Timing: Airlines are delaying announcements until the Paris Air Show, where Airbus expects to secure 50+ orders for the A350, A330neo, and A220.

The YTD lag is also relative to 2024's record first-half performance, which included a 30% surge in A320neo deliveries. Yet Airbus's order backlog remains robust at 8,579 aircraft, with 90% tied to its workhorse A220/A320neo families. This buffer ensures near-term stability, even as it focuses on long-term bets.

Why the Paris Air Show Matters

The biennial Paris Air Show has historically been a deal-making bonanza for Airbus. In 2023, it secured 378 gross orders (including 200+ A320neos) worth $50 billion. This year, the stakes are higher:
- A350-1000 Momentum: With 29 orders booked in 2024 (vs. Boeing's 777X's 165), Airbus needs a strong showing to counter Boeing's dominance in the ultra-long-haul market.
- A330neo Comeback: After a slow start, the A330neo has secured 37 orders in 2024–2025, targeting carriers like Delta and Qatar Airways seeking a modern widebody at a lower price than the A350.
- A220-500 Push: Airbus aims to leverage the A220's fuel efficiency to win back market share from Embraer's E-Jets.

A successful Air Show could push 2025 gross orders above 2,000—matching 2023's record—while improving the net order position (2024's net orders were 204 after 76 cancellations).

Smartkarma's Scores Validate Long-Term Resilience

Smartkarma's Growth Score of 4 and Resilience Score of 5 (out of 5) underscore Airbus's ability to navigate challenges while capitalizing on secular trends:
1. Narrowbody Dominance: The A320neo family's $14 billion in annual revenue is protected by a $200,000 price gap over Boeing's 737 MAX, giving it a cost advantage.
2. Sustainability Edge: Airbus's A350 Ultra-Long-Range (ULR) variant and investments in hybrid-electric propulsion align with $300 billion in global SAF infrastructure spending by 2030.
3. Defense Diversification: Military contracts (e.g., A400M transports, drones) provide a steady 20% of revenue, shielding Airbus from cyclical aviation dips.

Investment Thesis: Buy with an Air Show Catalyst

Risks: Supply chain bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions, and a potential Boeing comeback with the 777X.
Reward: A strong Air Show could lift Airbus's stock to €170–€180, up from its current €155, as order momentum reignites and 2026 delivery targets (850+ aircraft) become achievable.

Recommendation:
- Buy: If Airbus secures 150+ net orders at the Paris Air Show, signaling renewed demand and backlog growth.
- Hold: If orders fall below expectations, though the backlog's depth ensures near-term stability.

Conclusion

Airbus's May numbers are a strategic pause, not a stumble. With a $1.3 trillion commercial aviation market growing at 4% annually and the Paris Air Show looming, the company is poised to leverage its narrowbody dominance, widebody ambition, and sustainability leadership. Investors should treat the YTD lag as a setup for a potential order surge, making Airbus a compelling “buy” if June delivers as expected.

Disclosure: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.