Airbus Delays: A Storm in the Supply Chain – Where to Bet Now!

The aerospace industry is in turmoil. Airbus's delivery delays—now extending into 2028—are creating a ripple effect across the global supply chain, from leasing firms sweating delayed fleets to engine suppliers scrambling to keep up. But here's the twist: this crisis isn't just about short-term pain. It's a goldmine for investors who can spot where bottlenecks will break—and where demand will surge. Let's dive in.

Leasing Firms: Grounded Fleets, Grounded Stocks

Leasing companies like Air Lease Corp (NYSE: AL) are the first to feel the heat. With Airbus pushing delivery delays to 2028, airlines can't take delivery of planes they've ordered—and leasing firms can't collect revenue on aircraft that never arrive. For Air Lease, this means postponed leases, stranded capital, and potential defaults from airlines forced to extend aging fleets.

The data is stark: Air Lease's backlog of undelivered Airbus jets now includes 6-month delays on planes originally due in 2027. Meanwhile, competitors like AerCap (NYSE: AER) face similar headwinds.

Action Alert: Short Air Lease Corp here. The stock has already dipped 18% since January, but with delays compounding, this is a short-term sell-off that could deepen.

Engines: The $75 Billion Bottleneck

The heart of the problem? Engines. Airbus's A320neo production—critical to its 75-per-month target—depends entirely on CFM International's LEAP engines (a joint venture of GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) and Safran (EPA: SAF)).

CFM has become the weakest link. Despite Airbus's 2027 ramp-up goal, the company's engine production remains stuck at levels that support only 60 A320neos per month. GE's struggles to boost LEAP output—due to supply chain hiccups and a focus on aftermarket demand—mean delays could last years.

But here's the opportunity: If CFM can resolve its bottlenecks, the upside is massive. The LEAP engine backlog alone is worth $75 billion.

Action Alert: Buy Safran (EPA: SAF) on dips. While GE's U.S. exposure to broader economic fears drags its stock, Safran's European focus and direct role in CFM's engine production make it a better leveraged play.

Long-Term Demand: The A320neo Moonshot

Despite the chaos, demand for narrowbodies remains white-hot. The A320neo's backlog of over 6,000 jets (as of March 2025) isn't shrinking—it's growing. Airlines need these planes to modernize fleets and cut emissions, and Airbus's pricing power is intact.

The 75-per-month target isn't just a production goal—it's a catalyst. If Airbus hits it by 2027 (or even 2029), it could unlock a $100 billion revenue windfall and validate the industry's recovery.

Action Alert: Buy Airbus (EPA: AIR) at current levels. The stock trades at a 30% discount to its pre-pandemic highs, yet its order book is stronger than ever. This is a “buy the dip” opportunity.

The Playbook for Supply Chain Winners

1. Short Leasing Firms: Air Lease Corp's stock is a proxy for delayed deliveries.
2. Back Engine Suppliers: Safran's direct role in CFM's LEAP engine production gives it upside if bottlenecks ease.
3. Buy Airbus: The company's backlog dominance and pricing power make it a long-term winner if production ramps up.

The aerospace sector is in a “grind it out” phase—but that's exactly when the best opportunities emerge. Don't let the noise of delays distract you from the $1.5 trillion commercial aviation market still waiting to take off.

Bottom Line: This is a crisis with a clear resolution. The companies solving the supply chain puzzle—and the investors betting on them now—will reap the rewards.

Invest wisely, and remember: In a supply chain war, the first to fix the weakest link wins.