Airbus's 2025 Momentum: Deliveries, Orders, and the Road to Long-Term Value

The aviation industry is no stranger to turbulence, but Airbus is navigating the headwinds of 2025 with a blend of resilience and strategic foresight. For investors, the question isn't just whether Airbus can maintain its delivery cadence—it's whether the company's operational strength and growing order backlog will translate into sustainable value creation. Let's break down the numbers, the challenges, and the catalysts that could make Airbus a compelling long-term play.

Deliveries: A Mixed Bag, But Momentum Remains

In Q2 2025, Airbus delivered 11,308 commercial aircraft units, a 6% dip from Q2 2024's 12,048. The slowdown? Supply chain bottlenecks, particularly engine shortages for the A320 Family, which delivered just 113 units in Q2 2025 versus 159 in Q2 2024. Yet, the broader picture is less bleak. Year-to-date, Airbus has delivered 373 commercial aircraft through July 2025, putting it on track for its 820-unit annual target. The A320 Family remains the backbone, accounting for 78% of deliveries so far.

The key here is production scalability. Airbus is targeting 75 A320s per month by 2027 and 12 A350s per month by 2028. While current constraints are real, the company's ability to absorb these shocks—without derailing its EBIT Adjusted growth—speaks to its operational discipline. Consolidated EBIT (reported) for Q2 2025 hit €1,144 million, a 35% jump year-on-year, driven by lower charges in its Space Systems division. This resilience is critical for investors: it shows Airbus isn't just surviving; it's adapting.

Orders: A Backlog That's a Goldmine

The real story in 2025 is the order intake. In H1 2025, Airbus secured 494 gross orders (402 net), a 30% increase from H1 2024. Its year-end backlog now stands at 8,754 aircraft—a 2% rise from 2024. This isn't just a number; it's a pipeline of future revenue. With 82% of the backlog in the A220 and A320 Families, Airbus is positioned to capitalize on the single-aisle market's dominance, which accounts for over 70% of global commercial aircraft demand.

But here's the kicker: backlog isn't just volume—it's timing. If Airbus can resolve its supply chain issues, particularly with Spirit AeroSystems, it could accelerate deliveries and convert this backlog into cash flow faster than expected. The pending acquisition of Spirit's work packages, set to close in Q4 2025, is a game-changer. By integrating these components, Airbus aims to stabilize its A350 and A220 programs, which have been plagued by supplier volatility.

Supply Chain: A Thorn in the Side, But a Solvable One

Spirit AeroSystems' financial woes and its pending merger with Boeing have created a perfect storm for Airbus. Spirit's Q2 2025 loss of $133 million and its litigation with former CEO Larry Lawson underscore the fragility of its operations. However, Airbus is doubling down on its support, injecting an additional $94 million to ensure a smooth transition. This isn't just a rescue—it's a strategic investment in supply chain stability.

The acquisition's closure in Q4 2025 will be a pivotal moment. If successful, it could reduce Airbus's dependency on third-party suppliers for critical parts, a move that would bolster margins and delivery timelines. For investors, this is a risk-reward scenario: the short-term pain of supply chain delays could be offset by long-term gains in operational efficiency.

Financials: EBIT and Cash Flow as Confidence Builders

Airbus's financials in Q2 2025 tell a story of cautious optimism. EBIT Adjusted for the full company rose 94% year-on-year to €1,580 million, while net income hit €732 million. Earnings per share surged 221% to €0.93. These figures aren't just impressive—they're a testament to the company's ability to manage costs and leverage its scale.

Free cash flow before customer financing is projected at €4.5 billion for 2025, a number that could rise if delivery rates stabilize. This liquidity provides Airbus with flexibility to reinvest in production, fund R&D for next-gen aircraft like the A321XLR, or return value to shareholders via dividends. The €2.00 per share dividend and a special €1.00 payout in 2024 already signal a shareholder-friendly approach.

The Verdict: A Buy for the Long Haul

For long-term investors, Airbus's 2025 performance is a case study in resilience. The company is navigating supply chain chaos while maintaining delivery guidance, growing its order backlog, and investing in strategic acquisitions. The risks are real—Spirit's financial instability and the A320's production hurdles—but Airbus's track record of overcoming challenges (e.g., post-pandemic recovery) suggests it's up to the task.

The key catalysts for value creation in the next 12–24 months will be:
1. Successful integration of Spirit AeroSystems' work packages by Q4 2025.
2. Acceleration of A320 Family production to 75 units per month by 2027.
3. Conversion of the 8,754-aircraft backlog into cash flow, supported by stable demand for fuel-efficient models.

If these checks off, Airbus could see its EBIT Adjusted reach €7.0 billion in 2025 and maintain a double-digit free cash flow margin. For investors with a 5–10 year horizon, this is a stock that balances near-term pragmatism with long-term ambition.

In the end, Airbus isn't just flying through the clouds—it's building a runway for the future.