Airbnb Earnings Preview: Can ABNB Avoid a Drop to $114 as Travel Demand Softens?

Airbnb (ABNB) will release its second-quarter 2025 results after the close today, with sentiment running cautious as shares hover below the 200-day moving average of $132.40. The technical setup looks fragile—any earnings disappointment could see the stock slide toward the $114 support zone. While the long-term story remains tied to global travel demand and the company’s push into new products like experiences and services, near-term risks around slowing U.S. travel, rising costs, and margin pressure loom large. Investors are focused on whether Airbnb can prove it still has the momentum to defend its premium valuation despite growing competitive and regulatory headwinds.

Expectations heading into the print are modest. Consensus calls for EPS of $0.94, up 9.3% year-over-year, and revenue of $3.03 billion, up 10.2%. Company guidance pegs revenue in the $2.99–$3.05 billion range, suggesting growth of 9–11%, with Easter’s timing expected to add roughly two percentage points. While estimates have seen more upward than downward revisions over the past three months, analysts remain cautious on the back half of 2025, with Deutsche Bank noting that close-in bookings strength may offset some of the slowdown but Truist warning of softness in RevPAR trends and broader travel demand.

Key metrics to watch this quarter include nights and experiences booked, average daily rate (ADR), and adjusted EBITDA margin. Nights and experiences are expected to show year-over-year growth, with Latin America leading the charge, though growth in Asia-Pacific and Europe has cooled in recent months. ADR is anticipated to be flat versus last year, reflecting softness in the U.S. market where broader economic uncertainties are weighing on discretionary spending. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be flat to slightly lower compared to last year, with marketing tied to the company’s Summer Release weighing on profitability.

The Q1 2025 backdrop offers important context. Airbnb delivered $2.3 billion in revenue, up 6% year-over-year, with 143 million nights and experiences booked. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $417 million, for an 18% margin, while free cash flow hit a strong $1.8 billion. Regional growth was mixed: Latin America surged in the low-20% range, Asia-Pacific rose in the mid-teens, while Europe posted mid-single-digit growth and North America lagged at low-single-digits. CEO Brian Chesky touted the success of initiatives like Guest Favorites—credited with over 350 million nights booked—and the rollout of a total price display. Still, CFO Ellie Mertz flagged that profitability would be pressured in Q2 due to higher marketing and investment expenses.

Looking ahead to tonight’s results, analysts and investors will be listening for commentary around three themes:

U.S. Travel Weakness – Domestic softness remains a concern. Truist flagged volatility in consumer confidence and government-related cutbacks weighing on bookings, while Wedbush noted an “emerging slowdown” in Q2 commentary. If U.S. trends remain sluggish, international strength may not be enough to offset.

International Momentum – Emerging markets are growing at more than twice the rate of core markets, according to AirDNA. Continued expansion in Latin America and Asia-Pacific could help cushion the slowdown in North America

Product Expansion – The May Summer Release introduced services and social features, with a loyalty program reportedly under consideration. Cantor notes the initiatives could meaningfully expand Airbnb’s total addressable market, but financial contributions will take time.

On the profitability side, margin trends are under the microscope. Gross margin erosion has been a nagging issue across the lodging sector, and Airbnb is not immune. Marketing costs tied to new initiatives and rising headcount will likely keep Q2 EBITDA margin flat versus last year, despite stronger top-line growth. Management’s FY2025 target of at least a 34.5% EBITDA margin remains intact, but execution risk is growing.

Airbnb’s FY2026 outlook will also be key. Investors will also want clarity on whether the new offerings—experiences, services, and potential loyalty programs—can materially lift growth by late 2025 or if their impact will be more long-dated.

In sum, Airbnb’s Q2 report will be a balancing act between promising long-term initiatives and mounting near-term headwinds. Strong guidance on bookings and international growth could steady sentiment, but any softness in U.S. demand or margin trajectory may push shares lower, especially given the fragile technical setup. Investors will be watching closely whether the company can deliver results strong enough to support its elevated valuation—or if tonight’s release triggers a deeper correction.