Ainvest Option Flow Digest - 2026-02-04: Tech Giants, Gold Miners & Bitcoin Bears - $303.5M Institutional Positioning Ahead of GOOGL Earnings afterhour!

February 4, 2026 | MEGA-CAP EARNINGS SHOWDOWN: GOOGL Reports Tonight + NVDA $41M Bull Call Spread + QQQ $90M Put Spreads | Tech Volatility, Gold Safe Haven & Crypto Caution Dominate

The $303.5M Institutional Game Plan: Big Money Takes Sides Before Binary Events

MASSIVE DIVERSIFICATION: We tracked $303.5 MILLION in institutional options activity across 8 tickers - featuring a $41M profit-taking exit in GOOGL hours before tonight's earnings, a $90M defensive put spread structure in QQQ, and a $44M protective fortress in SNOW. Meanwhile, gold bugs are making $19.4M multi-year LEAPS bets on GDX while Bitcoin bears target RIOT with a $4.7M put spread.

Total Flow Tracked: $303,500,000 Biggest Single Trade: QQQ $90M Bull Put Spread - betting tech holds above $600 Pre-Earnings Protection: SNOW $44M + GOOGL $41M exit = $85M hedging activity AI Infrastructure Bet: NVDA $41M Bull Call Spread targeting $235 by June Safe Haven Play: GDX $19.4M LEAPS through January 2028 Contrarian Bearish: RIOT $4.7M Bear Put Spread - Bitcoin miner breakdown bet

THE COMPLETE WHALE LINEUP: All 8 Institutional Positions

1. QQQ - $90M Bull Put Spreads: Betting Tech Holds Above $600

ANALYZE THE $90M INSTITUTIONAL BET ON NASDAQ SUPPORT

• Flow: $90M across two bull put spreads ($51M + $39M) - betting QQQ stays above $600 through February
• What's Happening: Tech selloff from $620 highs + NVIDIA earnings Feb 25 + tariff uncertainty = institutions collecting premium while hedging tail risk
• Key Strikes: $580/$600 and $595/$605 put spreads - creating a defensive wall at key gamma support levels
• The Big Question: Will NVIDIA's Feb 25 earnings break QQQ below the $600 gamma wall, or validate the bulls?
• Expiration: Feb 13 and Feb 27 - short-dated premium collection strategy

2. SNOW - $44M Put Spread Calendar: Building a Fortress Before Earnings

DECODE THE $44M SOPHISTICATED MULTI-LEG PUT STRUCTURE

• Flow: $44M net premium across 9 trades - buying March/April puts, selling July puts for premium offset
• What's Happening: SNOW down 24% YTD, Feb 25 earnings looming, and 54% IV means big money is buying protection while betting it won't completely crash below $135
• Key Strikes: Long $170/$165 puts (protection), short $140/$135 puts (floor bet)
• The Big Question: Does the $44M defensive structure signal insider concerns about AI competition hitting Snowflake's growth story?
• Expiration: March 20 (Triple Witch), April 17, July 17 - layered protection through multiple catalysts

3. GOOGL - $41M Call Position Closed: Smart Money Cashing Out Before Tonight!

DISCOVER WHY BIG MONEY EXITED $41M HOURS BEFORE EARNINGS

• Flow: $41M in deep ITM $260 calls SOLD (5,000 contracts) - locking in profits at 09:40:34 this morning
• What's Happening: GOOGL at $342 near ATH + Q4 earnings TONIGHT + binary event risk = smart money says "good enough" and books gains
• Why It Matters: The trader rode $260 calls from likely $280-$300 entry, capturing massive gains while avoiding the earnings lottery
• The Big Question: Is tonight's earnings already priced in, or does the institutional exit signal concern about guidance?
• Catalyst: Q4 EARNINGS TONIGHT after market close - $111B revenue expected, Google Cloud +36% YoY

4. NVDA - $41M Bull Call Spread: AI King's $235 Target by June

SEE WHY $41M IS BETTING NVDA RALLIES 33% BY SUMMER

• Flow: $41M bull call spread - buying $205 calls, selling $235 calls (32,000 contracts) - net $15M risk for potential $81M profit
• What's Happening: Blackwell sales "off the charts" + Vera Rubin in full production + Feb 25 earnings + GTC March = multiple catalysts stacked
• Key Levels: $205 strike (16% upside) to $235 (33% upside) - aggressive but within LEAPS implied range
• The Big Question: Can NVDA break through the $175 gamma wall and run to $235 before June expiration?
• Expiration: June 18, 2026 - capturing Q4 earnings, GTC 2026, and H1 deployment news

5. IBM - $37.4M Calendar Spread Roll: Institutional Confidence Through Earnings Season

ANALYZE THE $37.4M MULTI-MONTH POSITIONING STRATEGY

• Flow: $37.4M calendar spread - buying May 2026 $220 calls, selling October 2026 $230 calls - coordinated 6-month position
• What's Happening: IBM's AI consulting revenue growing 40%+ YoY + quantum computing leadership + steady dividend yield = institutional value play
• Key Strikes: $220 May entry, $230 October cap - expecting gradual appreciation over 6 months
• The Big Question: Can IBM's Watsonx AI platform capture enterprise spending that's fleeing to cheaper alternatives?
• Expiration: May 2026 / October 2026 - patient capital with time decay advantage

6. AMGN - $26M Calendar Roll: Post-Earnings Conviction Play

UNDERSTAND THE $26M BIOTECH CALENDAR ROLL STRATEGY

• Flow: $26M calendar roll - buying Feb 20 and April 17 $305 calls simultaneously - doubling down on conviction
• What's Happening: MariTide obesity drug Phase 3 readout Q4 2026 + strong Q4 earnings beat + biosimilar competition concerns = near-term bullish, long-term watch
• Key Strike: $305 calls across multiple expirations - betting stock holds above current levels
• The Big Question: Will MariTide obesity data in Q4 deliver the next leg up, or is Amgen late to the GLP-1 party?
• Expiration: February 20, April 17, 2026 - building position through near-term catalysts

7. GDX - $19.4M LEAPS: Multi-Year Bet on Gold Miners as Safe Haven

EXPLORE THE $19.4M LEAPS WHALE BET THROUGH JANUARY 2028

• Flow: $19.4M across multiple strikes - $15M in January 2028 LEAPS + $4.4M in March 2026 calls
• What's Happening: Gold at $2,810/oz near ATH + central bank buying + geopolitical tensions + tariff uncertainty = flight to safety
• Key Strikes: $110, $115, $120 calls - expecting 20-30% rally in gold miners over 2 years
• The Big Question: Is this the beginning of a gold super-cycle, or a macro hedge against potential equity correction?
• Expiration: March 2026 / January 2028 - patient multi-year thesis

8. RIOT - $4.7M Bear Put Spread: Bitcoin Miner Breakdown Bet

DECODE THE BEARISH $4.7M BET ON BITCOIN MINER COLLAPSE

• Flow: $4.7M bear put spread - betting RIOT tanks below $15 by February 20th
• What's Happening: Bitcoin crashed below $73K + mining margins squeezed + post-halving economics biting hard + RIOT down 45% in one month
• Key Strike: $15 target - expecting further pain for high-cost miners
• The Big Question: Is this the flush that capitulates weak miners, or the start of a broader crypto winter?
• Expiration: February 20, 2026 - near-term bearish conviction

URGENT: Critical Expirations & Catalysts

TONIGHT - GOOGL Q4 Earnings (February 4, After Market Close)

• GOOGL - $41M position closed - smart money exiting before binary event
• Expected revenue $111B, EPS $2.64, Google Cloud +36% YoY
• 5.7% implied move priced in - market expects fireworks

9 DAYS - February 13 QQQ Put Spread Expiry

• QQQ - $39M roll position resolves - $605/$595 spread at risk if tech continues falling

16 DAYS - February 20 Monthly OPEX

• AMGN $305 calls - near-term calendar leg expiry
• RIOT bear put spread - $4.7M bearish thesis resolves

21 DAYS - February 25 NVIDIA Q4 Earnings (THE BIG ONE)

• NVDA - $41M bull spread positioned for this catalyst
• SNOW - $44M put structure - earnings day hedge
• QQQ - $51M put spread expires Feb 27 - NVDA is 9% of QQQ

23 DAYS - February 27 QQQ Put Spread Expiry

• QQQ - $51M bull put spread - $600/$580 spread final verdict

Smart Money Themes: What Institutions Are Really Betting

Pre-Earnings Hedging & Profit-Taking ($135M Defensive Positioning)

Smart Money Managing Binary Event Risk:

• → SNOW: $44M put spread calendar - building fortress before Feb 25 earnings
• → QQQ: $90M bull put spreads - betting tech holds but hedging NVDA risk
• → GOOGL: $41M call exit - taking profits hours before tonight's report

AI Infrastructure Conviction ($78.4M Bullish Bets)

Institutions Still Believers in the AI Buildout:

• → NVDA: $41M bull call spread - betting on $235 by June
• → IBM: $37.4M calendar spread - Watsonx AI enterprise play

Safe Haven & Macro Hedging ($19.4M Gold Bet)

Flight to Safety Amid Uncertainty:

• → GDX: $19.4M LEAPS through 2028 - multi-year gold miner conviction

Contrarian Bearish ($4.7M Short Bet)

Smart Money Fading Crypto:

• → RIOT: $4.7M bear put spread - Bitcoin miner breakdown play

Your Action Plan: Strategies for Every Investor Type

YOLO Trader (1-2% Portfolio MAX - Expect Total Loss Possible)

HIGH RISK BINARY BETS - Only for Capital You Can Lose Entirely

Tonight's Earnings Gamble:

• GOOGL straddles - 5.7% implied move means premiums are expensive, but if guidance surprises either direction, you profit
• Risk: IV crush destroys value even if you're right on direction
• Reward: 100-200% if GOOGL moves 8%+ tonight

NVDA Earnings Lottery:

• NVDA Feb 28 calls - Feb 25 earnings with Blackwell demand thesis
• Risk: Q4 revenue already priced in, guidance could disappoint on margins
• Reward: 3-5x if NVDA gaps above $185 on blowout numbers

Crypto Collapse Bet:

• RIOT puts - follow the $4.7M bear spread thesis
• Risk: Bitcoin bounces and RIOT squeezes higher
• Reward: 200%+ if Bitcoin breaks $65K and miners capitulate

Swing Trader (3-5% Portfolio - 2-8 Week Holds)

DEFINED RISK MULTI-WEEK OPPORTUNITIES

AI Infrastructure Basket:

• NVDA June $205/$235 spread - copy the $41M whale through GTC and beyond
• IBM May $220 calls - enterprise AI recovery play
• Timeline: Hold through Q4 earnings season into spring catalysts

Pre-Earnings Momentum:

• SNOW March $160 puts - follow institutional hedge into Feb 25 earnings
• AMGN April $305 calls - biotech conviction play through spring catalysts

Defensive Positioning:

• GDX March $115 calls - gold safe haven with near-term expiry
• QQQ bull put spreads at wider strikes - $580/$560 for more cushion

Premium Collector (Income Strategy - 5-10% Monthly Returns Target)

HARVEST PREMIUM FROM ELEVATED IV

High IV Earnings Plays:

• SNOW covered calls - sell $175-$180 strikes ahead of Feb 25 earnings (54% IV = juicy premium)
• NVDA iron condors - sell $155/$145 puts / $195/$205 calls for Feb 28 expiry

Calendar Spread Income:

• IBM calendar spreads - sell near-term calls against long May position
• QQQ put spreads at $585/$575 - collect premium on tech stability thesis

Risk Management:

• Only sell premium on stocks you'd own at assignment price
• Close winners at 50-60% max profit
• Roll losers BEFORE expiration week

Entry Level Investor (Learning Mode - Start Small, Build Experience)

PRIORITIZE EDUCATION OVER PROFITS

Recommended Starting Points:

Paper trade first: Practice GOOGL earnings straddles, NVDA spreads, and QQQ put spreads on paper for 30 days

ETF exposure: Consider QQQ shares or GDX shares instead of options to avoid IV crush and theta decay

Study the strategies:

Critical Rules for Beginners:

• Never risk more than 1% per trade until 100+ trades completed
• Don't trade earnings week until you've watched 10+ cycles
• Avoid YOLO plays entirely until experienced
• Understand Greeks (delta, theta, vega, gamma) before trading options

Risk Management: What Could Destroy These Trades

If You're Following the Bulls (NVDA, IBM, AMGN)

• NVDA earnings miss: Blackwell demand disappoints, China export restrictions tighten
• AI monetization concerns: Hyperscaler capex cuts if ROI doesn't materialize
• Tariff escalation: Tech supply chains disrupted by trade war expansion
• Fed hawkish surprise: Sticky inflation forces higher-for-longer rates

If You're Following the Defensive Plays (QQQ, SNOW, GDX)

• QQQ rallies: Tech earnings beat across the board, NVDA gaps to $200
• SNOW guidance beats: AI product adoption accelerates faster than expected
• Gold drops: Risk-on sentiment returns, dollar strengthens

If You're Following the Bears (RIOT)

• Bitcoin bounces: Institutional buying resumes, RIOT squeezes 50%+
• Crypto regulatory clarity: Positive legislation drives mining resurgence

Universal Risks:

• Liquidity events: Large institutional unwinds can move markets against you
• Black swan events: Geopolitical shocks, flash crashes, unexpected volatility spikes
• Position sizing: The biggest risk is always sizing too large for your account

Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly & LEAP Expiration Tags

This Week (February 6-7)

• Weekly OPEX - implied moves resolve
• GOOGL earnings volatility settles

Monthly (February 13-27)

• Feb 13: QQQ $39M roll position expiry
• Feb 20: AMGN near-term calls, RIOT bear spread expiry
• Feb 25: NVDA/SNOW earnings
• Feb 27: QQQ $51M put spread expiry

Quarterly (March-April 2026)

• Mar 20 (Triple Witch): SNOW March puts, GDX March calls
• Apr 17: AMGN April calls, SNOW April puts

LEAPS (2026-2028)

• May 2026: IBM calendar spread entry
• June 2026: NVDA $41M bull call spread
• July 2026: SNOW put calendar completion
• October 2026: IBM calendar spread cap
• January 2028: GDX $15M LEAPS - multi-year gold thesis

Flow Summary Table

The Bottom Line: Institutional Money Taking Sides Before Binary Events

Real talk: $303.5 million in positioning reveals a market bracing for volatility but not panicking. The dominant theme is defensive premium collection - institutions betting tech doesn't crash while collecting income (QQQ $90M, GOOGL $41M exit). Meanwhile, conviction plays continue in AI infrastructure (NVDA $41M, IBM $37.4M) and safe haven hedging gains traction (GDX $19.4M).

What to watch:

GOOGL earnings TONIGHT - Does the $41M exit signal concern, or just prudent risk management?

QQQ $600 level - The $90M bet hinges on this gamma support holding through Feb 25 NVDA earnings

SNOW Feb 25 earnings - Does the $44M protective structure suggest insider worry?

Gold breakout potential - $19.4M LEAPS through 2028 is serious conviction on macro uncertainty

Your move: This is a market of stock pickers, not a stock market. The institutional flow suggests selective conviction - bullish on AI infrastructure, defensive on tech broadly, hedging with gold, and bearish on crypto miners. Pick your spots carefully, size appropriately, and remember: the institutions we're tracking have risk management departments and hedged portfolios we can't see.

Mark your calendar:

• Tonight: GOOGL Q4 earnings - the first domino
• Feb 25: NVDA Q4 earnings - the main event
• Feb 27: QQQ put spread verdict - $90M thesis resolves

Get Complete Analysis on Every Trade

Pre-Earnings & Defensive Positioning:

• QQQ $90M Bull Put Spreads - Tech Selloff Hedge
• SNOW $44M Put Spread Calendar - Fortress Building
• GOOGL $41M Call Exit - Profit-Taking Before Tonight

AI Infrastructure Conviction:

• NVDA $41M Bull Call Spread - $235 Target by June
• IBM $37.4M Calendar Spread - Enterprise AI Play

Biotech & Healthcare:

• AMGN $26M Calendar Roll - MariTide Optionality

Safe Haven & Macro:

• GDX $19.4M LEAPS - Multi-Year Gold Miner Bet

Contrarian Bearish:

• RIOT $4.7M Bear Put Spread - Bitcoin Miner Breakdown

Total Flow Summary:

• Total Tracked: $303,500,000
• Largest Position: QQQ $90M (30% of total flow)
• Sector Leaders: Tech Defensive $175M (58%), AI Infrastructure $78M (26%), Safe Haven $19M (6%), Bearish $5M (2%)
• Tickers Analyzed: 8 across tech, semiconductors, cloud, biotech, gold miners, crypto
• Expiry Range: February 2026 through January 2028

Remember: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. These trades represent sophisticated institutional strategies that may be part of larger hedged portfolios. Always practice proper position sizing, set stop losses, and never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Patience and discipline beat FOMO every time.