Ainvest Option Flow Digest - 2026-01-28: $152M Institutional Wave Hits 8 Tickers - Earnings, Silver Squeeze & M&A Mania

$152M+ institutional options flow across 8 tickers. MU $42M put hedge at all-time highs. PLTR $23M call sweep 5 days before earnings. SLV $16.6M risk reversal bets silver doubles. Full analysis with gamma levels, implied moves, and trading strategies for every risk level.

January 28, 2026 | $152M+ Unusual Options Activity | PLTR Earnings in 5 Days | MU $42M Hedge at All-Time Highs | SLV "Silver Doubles" Risk Reversal | WBD M&A Bidding War Heats Up

The $152M Institutional Tsunami: What Smart Money Did Today

We just tracked $152 million in unusual options activity across 8 tickers spanning semiconductors, energy, precious metals, and media. The standout? A $42M put hedge on Micron at all-time highs - the largest single position today - suggesting a whale is bracing for turbulence even as the memory supercycle rages on. Meanwhile, PLTR drew a $23M call bet 5 days before earnings, a $16.6M risk reversal bets silver DOUBLES by summer, and WBD attracts $7.1M amid a Netflix vs. Paramount bidding war.

Total Flow Tracked: $152,000,000+ Largest Trade: MU $42M put hedge - Insurance on a 278% rally Most Urgent: PLTR $23M call sweep - Earnings Feb 2 (5 days!) Wildest Bet: SLV $16.6M risk reversal - Silver to $210 by July? M&A Play: WBD $7.1M call buy - Bidding war between Netflix & Paramount

Today's Flow At a Glance

The Complete Whale Lineup

1. MU - $42M Put Hedge: Insurance at All-Time Highs

SEE WHY SMART MONEY PAID $42M FOR DOWNSIDE PROTECTION ON THE HOTTEST MEMORY CHIP STOCK

After a staggering 278% rally, Micron sits at all-time highs on the back of the most powerful memory supercycle in history. Someone isn't selling - they're insuring. This $42M put position at the $390 strike through May gives them 9% of downside cushion while staying fully long. With DRAM pricing up 55-60% QoQ (historically extreme), Q2 earnings in March will either validate peak pricing fears or prove the AI-driven supercycle has more room to run.

The Big Question: Every memory supercycle has ended with a pricing cliff. Is this time different because of AI?

2. SNDK - $24M Profit Cash-Out: Selling the Day Before Earnings

DECODE WHY AN INSTITUTION CASHED OUT $24M THE DAY BEFORE SANDISK'S BIGGEST EARNINGS REPORT

An institution sold 499 deep ITM $50-strike calls on a $523 stock - that's essentially selling shares with extra steps. After riding SanDisk's 1,000%+ post-spinoff rally, they're banking profits the day before Q2 earnings (January 29). The options market is pricing +/-9.5% around the event. When someone with a multi-bagger exits the day before the big reveal, that's a powerful signal that risk/reward has shifted.

The Big Question: If the biggest winners are cashing out, should you be adding?

3. PLTR - $23M Call Bet: 5 Days to Earnings

DISCOVER WHY $23M JUST LANDED AT PALANTIR'S GAMMA INFLECTION POINT BEFORE THE BIGGEST EARNINGS OF 2026

With PLTR down 19% from its all-time high on DOGE spending fears, someone sees opportunity where others see danger. 15,000 March $160 calls at $15.45/contract - struck exactly at the highest gamma level on the entire board. This isn't random: a breakout above $160 would force dealer hedging that accelerates the rally. Q4 earnings on February 2 will determine if the 63% revenue growth can sustain through 2026 guidance. At 391x P/E, the bar is exceptionally high.

The Big Question: Is the 19% pullback a gift or a warning?

4. HAL - $16.8M Double Bull Bet: 45,000 Calls in Two Clips

SEE WHY $16.8M IS BETTING ON HALLIBURTON'S VENEZUELA COMEBACK AND AI DATA CENTER PIVOT

Two clips of $8.4M each, 7 minutes apart, loading 45,000 September $35 calls. Halliburton just posted a Q4 beat and the CEO dropped a bombshell: they can "mobilize in weeks" for Venezuela re-entry. Add the emerging AI data center cooling pivot (oil companies applying thermal expertise to liquid-cooled GPU racks), and this whale sees Halliburton as more than an oil trade. This is an energy transformation play with an 8-month runway.

The Big Question: Can Halliburton reinvent itself from pure oilfield services to AI infrastructure?

5. SLV - $16.6M Risk Reversal: Silver Doubles by July?

UNPACK THE $16.6M BET THAT SILVER HITS $210 BY SUMMER AMID CHINA'S SUPPLY STRANGLEHOLD

This is the wildest structure of the day: sell $65 puts, buy $210 calls through July. The trader collects $5.6M premium on the puts (agreeing to buy $117M of silver in a crash) and pays $11M for calls at $210 - roughly double current levels. Silver is up 60% in January alone on China's export restrictions, and this whale thinks the supply shock is just beginning. At 3.8x the 60-month moving average, this is either prescient or reckless.

The Big Question: Is China's silver export ban the start of a generational commodity supercycle?

6. IWM - $13.4M Put Roll: Locking Profits After Record Streak

UNDERSTAND WHY SMART MONEY BANKED PROFITS ON 100K IWM CONTRACTS DURING THE "GREAT ROTATION"

Someone closed 100,000 short puts across the $253/$251 strikes, banking profits as IWM's small-cap rally tied a 2008-era 13-session outperformance record. This is disciplined risk management: take the win, reset the board. With FOMC meeting today (Jan 28-29) and 50% of Russell 2000 debt on floating rates, the next Fed statement could either extend or snap this historic run.

The Big Question: Can the "Great Rotation" into small caps survive a hawkish Fed?

7. SMH - $9.1M Call Sweep: ASML Record Orders Ignite Chips

ANALYZE WHY TWO URGENT CALL SWEEPS ABOVE THE ASK TARGETED SEMICONDUCTORS AFTER ASML'S RECORD QUARTER

Both trades hit ABOVE the ask price - the market maker's way of screaming urgency. ASML just reported orders 109% above consensus, and with AMD (Jan 28), Qualcomm (Jan 29), and NVIDIA (Feb 25) all on deck, this $9.1M bet captures the entire semiconductor earnings tsunami. The $410 calls were bought to open; the $430s appear to cover existing short calls. Either way, this is aggressive bullish semiconductor positioning.

The Big Question: After ASML's record orders, will NVIDIA's guidance blow the doors off expectations?

8. WBD - $7.1M M&A Call Play: Netflix vs. Paramount Bidding War

DISCOVER HOW $7.1M IS POSITIONED FOR THE $82.7B WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY BIDDING WAR

Warner Bros. Discovery sits at the center of media's biggest deal in decades: Netflix offered $27.75/share, Paramount Skydance countered at $30. This $7.1M call position at the $25 strike gives immediate delta exposure with a $5.8B breakup fee providing a soft floor. The April shareholder vote is the next binary event, and with two mega-bidders competing, the price may only go one direction.

The Big Question: How high does the bidding war go before shareholders say yes?

Upcoming Catalysts & Expiration Map

Earnings Calendar (Sorted by Date)

Macro & Sector Catalysts

Expiry Timeline Tags

Monthly (Feb 20 - 23 Days)

• IWM - $13.4M put roll (BTC) - FOMC catalyst today
• SMH - $9.1M dual call sweep - 3 chip earnings in 28 days

Quarterly (Mar-May - 51-107 Days)

• PLTR - $23M call buy, Mar 20 - Q4 earnings Feb 2
• SNDK - $24M STC, Mar 20 - Earnings TOMORROW
• WBD - $7.1M call buy, Mar 20 - M&A vote April
• MU - $42M put hedge, May 15 - Q2 earnings March
• SLV - $16.6M risk reversal, Jul 17 - China supply shock

LEAP-Adjacent (Sep 2026 - 233 Days)

• HAL - $16.8M call buy, Sep 18 - Venezuela re-entry + AI pivot

Your Action Plan by Investor Type

YOLO Trader (1-2% Portfolio MAX - Accept 100% Loss)

Pre-Earnings Lottery Tickets: - PLTR March $165 calls - Follow the $23M whale into Feb 2 earnings. If PLTR beats AND guides 40%+ growth, negative gamma positioning could catapult the stock past $180. Risk: 391x P/E means even a good quarter might get "sell the news" treatment. - SMH Feb $420 calls - ASML's record orders set the stage, NVIDIA Feb 25 earnings is the main event. Risk: 25% semiconductor tariffs could gap the ETF down overnight.

Commodity Moonshot: - SLV OTM calls - If China's silver export ban creates a true supply crisis, the upside is generational. Risk: Silver at 3.8x its 60-month average is historically extreme - mean reversion could be brutal.

Swing Trader (3-5% Portfolio, 2-8 Week Hold)

Earnings Momentum Plays: - PLTR post-earnings entry - Wait for Feb 2 results, then enter March call spreads if stock holds above $155 gamma support. Institutional flow validates the thesis; letting earnings de-risk the trade is smarter than gambling. - SMH call spreads through NVIDIA Feb 25 earnings - AMD and QCOM report this week; if both beat, the semiconductor thesis gets a double confirmation before the big NVDA event.

Multi-Week Structural Plays: - HAL Sep $35 calls - 8-month runway with Venezuela re-entry catalyst. Can scale in over weeks. Lower urgency but higher conviction given dual institutional clips. - WBD Mar $25 calls - M&A bidding war creates an asymmetric setup where the floor is the deal price. Keep position small given regulatory risk.

Premium Collector (Income Strategy - 5-10% Monthly Target)

High IV Harvesting: - SNDK covered calls - IV is spiking into tomorrow's earnings. Sell OTM calls to collect premium. The $24M institutional exit tells you smart money thinks risk/reward is stretched. - PLTR post-earnings iron condors - After Feb 2 earnings crush IV, sell both-side premium in the $150-$180 range to collect theta decay.

Structural Premium: - MU calendar spreads - Sell March $420 puts, buy May $390 puts (mirror the whale's hedge at lower cost). Collect time decay differential while maintaining downside protection.

Entry Level Investor (Learning Mode - Start Small)

Education First: - Paper trade the PLTR earnings play: watch how the $23M call performs through Feb 2. Notice how IV crush affects option prices even when the stock moves the right direction. - Study the MU hedge: This $42M put buy is textbook portfolio insurance. The whale isn't bearish - they're protecting a winner. This is how professionals manage risk.

If You Must Trade: - Consider buying a few shares of SMH (the semiconductor ETF) rather than individual chip stocks. You get diversified exposure to the same AI thesis without single-stock risk. - Watch WBD as a case study in M&A dynamics: how deal prices, breakup fees, and competing bids create price floors and catalysts.

Do NOT: - Trade earnings on SNDK or PLTR until you've watched at least 10 earnings cycles play out - Buy OTM calls on SLV - the risk reversal is a sophisticated structure that doesn't translate to simple call buying - Follow institutional flow blindly - these whales have hedges and portfolio context you can't see

Risk Management: Universal Rules

Do not blindly follow unusual options activity. These institutions have: - Research teams, quant models, and information edges we lack - Complex hedged portfolios where one visible leg is offset by invisible positions - Capital reserves to withstand 50%+ drawdowns on any single position - Time horizons and risk tolerances vastly different from retail traders

Position sizing discipline: - YOLO: 1-2% max per position (expect total loss) - Swing: 3-5% max per position (set 30% stop loss) - Premium: 10-15% total allocated to sold premium (never naked) - Beginner: 1% max per position until 100+ trades experience

Today's specific warnings: 1. PLTR at 391x P/E - Even exceptional earnings might not satisfy expectations at this valuation 2. SLV at 3.8x 60-month MA - Historically extreme; only reached 3 times since 1954 3. Semiconductor tariffs - 25% already in effect; escalation is a real overnight gap risk 4. MU memory cycle peak - Every supercycle in history ended with a pricing cliff 5. WBD regulatory risk - If both Netflix AND Paramount deals get blocked, stock drops 60%+

Trust your discipline over FOMO. Patience is the most valuable edge a retail trader has.

Complete Analysis Links

Semiconductors & Technology: - MU $42M Put Hedge - Insurance on Memory Supercycle Rally - SNDK $24M Call Sale - Profit-Taking Before Earnings - PLTR $23M Call Sweep - Loading Up Before Earnings - SMH $9.1M Call Sweep - Semiconductors Before Earnings Avalanche

Commodities & Energy: - SLV $16.6M Risk Reversal - Silver Doubles by July? - HAL $16.8M Double Bull Bet - 45,000 Calls on Halliburton

ETFs & Indices: - IWM $13.4M Put Roll - Covering Short Puts During Small-Cap Surge

Media & M&A: - WBD $7.1M Call Buy - M&A Fireworks Ahead

Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The unusual activity tracked here represents sophisticated institutional strategies that may be part of larger hedged portfolios not visible to retail traders. These positions represent past institutional behavior and do not guarantee future performance. Always practice proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. This is educational content, not financial advice.

Total Flow Summary: - Total Tracked: $152,000,000+ - Bullish Directional: $55.9M (PLTR $23M + HAL $16.8M + SLV $16.6M net debit) - Profit-Taking: $37.4M (SNDK $24M + IWM $13.4M) - Hedging: $42M (MU put protection) - Semiconductor Momentum: $9.1M (SMH calls) - M&A Positioning: $7.1M (WBD calls) - Tickers: 8 across semiconductors, energy, metals, media, small caps, AI software - Expiry Range: February 2026 (Monthly) through September 2026 (LEAP-adjacent)