Ainvest Option Flow Digest - 2026-01-13: $81.1M in Smart Money Bets as Gold Surges, Tech Hedges, and Bank Earnings Loom

Monday, January 13, 2026 | Total Premium: $81.1M | 10 Unusual Trades

The Big Picture

Today's unusual options flow tells a fascinating story of institutional caution mixed with conviction. Gold and silver are seeing massive positioning ($43.2M combined) as geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven demand, while China tech bears emerged with $4.6M in put bets on PDD and KWEB ahead of regulatory uncertainty. Meanwhile, the financial sector saw sophisticated repositioning ($3.2M diagonal roll on XLF) as bank earnings season kicks into high gear.

The headline trade? Someone deployed $35.6M into deep ITM GLD LEAPS calls - essentially a leveraged long on gold with 8 months of runway. With gold spot prices hitting record highs above $4,600/oz following US military intervention in Venezuela and Iran tensions, this institutional bet signals continued conviction in the precious metals rally.

Today's Trades at a Glance

The Urgency Plays (Expiring Soon)

This Week (Jan 16 Expiration):

• JBL has a $3.7M leg in deep ITM $230 calls expiring Friday - immediate upside capture

Next 30 Days:

• CLS ($8.1M) - Bear call spread positioned around Q4 earnings Jan 28-29
• CMG ($1M) - Short put ahead of Q4 earnings Feb 3
• PLTR Q4 earnings Feb 2 - watch the $200 LEAP call seller's thesis

Theme Deep Dives

Safe Haven Frenzy: $43.2M in Precious Metals

The biggest story today is gold and silver institutional positioning:

GLD ($35.6M): Eight coordinated trades at 10:17:07 AM bought 82,000 net contracts of deep ITM September $250 calls. With GLD at $424.50, these are essentially leveraged long positions. Gold has rallied 72% YoY on Venezuela intervention, Iran tensions, and Fed independence concerns.

SLV ($7.6M): In contrast, someone closed out a profitable long call position after silver's 187% rally. Smart money is taking chips off the table following last week's flash crash where silver plunged 18% intraday before recovering.

The takeaway: Institutions are long-term bullish on gold but profit-taking on silver after extreme gains.

China Tech Under Pressure: $4.6M in Bearish Bets

PDD ($2.7M put): A $2.7M put bet on the Temu parent company ahead of March earnings. The company faces a SAMR investigation (with actual physical altercations between employees and officials), tariff headwinds (52% US DAU decline), and EU DSA probes.

KWEB ($1.9M put): 14,000 put contracts bought at Z-score 73.74 betting the China Internet ETF drops below $34 by May. This could be hedging or a directional bet on ADR delisting acceleration.

The takeaway: Despite DeepSeek AI hype driving recent rallies, institutional money is hedging China exposure.

AI Infrastructure: Sophisticated Positioning

JBL ($8.6M 4-leg structure): This complex trade shows confidence in the $230-$250 range through February. The company just beat Q1 earnings with +54% YoY growth in Intelligent Infrastructure and raised FY2026 guidance to $32.4B.

CLS ($8.1M strike roll): The trader rolled $320 calls to $330, then established a bear call spread capping upside at $340. They expect CLS to stay in a range through Q4 earnings, not explode higher despite the AI narrative.

The takeaway: AI infrastructure names remain favored, but traders are managing risk with sophisticated structures rather than naked directional bets.

Catalyst Calendar

Action Plans by Investor Type

For the YOLO Trader

High Risk, High Reward Plays:

GLD Jan 31 $430 Calls (~$3-4): If Iran tensions escalate or FOMC surprises dovish, gold could spike. This is a defined-risk bet on volatility around the January 27-28 meeting.

JBL $250 Calls Feb 20 (~$6.85): Follow the institutional whale who bought 3,100 contracts. If AI momentum continues, you ride the same wave.

CLS $340 Calls Feb 20 (~$30): High risk, but if Q4 earnings beat and 2026 guidance raises like Q3 did, the stock could gap through $340 resistance.

Warning: These are lottery ticket plays. Only risk what you can afford to lose entirely.

For the Swing Trader

Defined Risk, Multi-Week Holds:

GLD $420/$440 Bull Call Spread (Mar 20):

XLF $55/$57 Call Spread (Mar 20):

PDD $110/$100 Put Spread (Mar 20):

For the Premium Collector

Sell Volatility, Collect Theta:

CMG Feb 20 $32.50 Put (Cash-Secured):

PLTR Jun 19 $200 Call (Covered Call):

XLF Mar 20 $52 Put (Cash-Secured):

For the Entry Level Investor

Learning Opportunities:

Watch the GLD $420-$425 zone: This is where gamma support and resistance collide. A break below $420 signals exhaustion; a break above $425 signals continuation. This is how options flow creates price levels.

Follow bank earnings (Jan 14-15): BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS all report this week. Watch how XLF reacts - the diagonal roll tells you an institution expects consolidation, not breakout.

Mark PDD March 23: This is a perfect case study in hedging. The $2.7M put buyer isn't predicting collapse - they're managing risk ahead of earnings. Notice the strike is only 1.3% below current price.

Key lesson: Today's flow shows that even when institutions are bullish, they use sophisticated structures to manage risk. Naked directional bets are the exception, not the rule.

Risk Management Reminders

What today's flow teaches us about risk:

• Gold bulls are patient: The $35.6M GLD trade has 8 months to expiration. They're not trying to time a short-term move.
• Profit-taking is rational: The SLV trader closed after 187% gains. Don't fall in love with winning positions.
• Sophisticated structures dominate: JBL's 4-leg structure, CLS's strike roll + bear spread, XLF's diagonal roll - these all limit risk while maintaining exposure.
• Hedging isn't bearish: The PDD and KWEB puts could be portfolio protection, not directional bets.

Position sizing wisdom: The smallest trade today (CMG, $1M) is still institutional-sized. Scale your trades appropriately - if you can't afford to lose the premium, the position is too large.

The Bottom Line

Today's $81.1M in unusual activity reveals a market navigating multiple crosscurrents:

• Geopolitical safe havens: Gold is the conviction play ($35.6M bullish)
• China hedging: PDD and KWEB see defensive positioning ($4.6M bearish)
• AI infrastructure: Bullish but with sophisticated risk management
• Bank earnings: Expect consolidation, not fireworks (XLF diagonal roll)
• Crypto caution: IBIT position closing suggests reduced conviction ahead of catalysts

The smart money is positioning for scenarios, not predictions. They're collecting premium where they're confident, buying protection where they're uncertain, and using time to their advantage.

Your homework: Pick one trade from today that matches your style. Understand the thesis. Set your risk parameters. And remember - the institutions putting up $8M-$35M have more information than we do. Follow the flow, but always manage your risk.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. The unusual options activity described represents institutional trading behavior that may not be appropriate for retail accounts. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results.