Ainvest Option Flow Digest - 2026-01-07: $83.8M Flows as Smart Money Hedges Big Tech, Bets on China Revival & Exits Bitcoin Proxy

January 7, 2026 | BIOTECH BEAR BET: $26.5M MLYS Multi-Leg Put Structure | PROFIT TAKING: $24M MSTR Call Exit | PORTFOLIO INSURANCE: $6.2M GOOG Puts Before Earnings | INCOME PLAY: $14.7M META Call Selling

The $83.8M Institutional Story: Hedging, Profit-Taking & Strategic Positioning

Today's unusual options activity tells a clear story: institutions are playing defense while selectively betting on turnarounds. The $83.8M in premium across 8 tickers splits into three distinct themes:

Massive Hedging & Bearish Bets ($47.6M): MLYS's complex $26.5M put structure, GOOG's $6.2M earnings insurance, and FCX's $1.9M downside protection

Profit-Taking & Income ($38.7M): MSTR's $24M call exit after Bitcoin rally and META's $14.7M covered call income play

Contrarian Bullish Bets ($10.5M): AMD's $8M LEAPS conviction, KWEB's $1M China recovery thesis, and RBLX's $1.5M advertising growth play

Total Flow: $83,800,000 | 8 Tickers | Expirations: Monthly to 2-Year LEAPs

Complete Flow Summary Table

The Headline Trades: What Smart Money Is Really Doing

1. MLYS - $26.5M Biotech Bear Bomb

DECODE THE COMPLEX $26.5M MULTI-LEG PUT STRATEGY

• Flow: $26.5M across 111,100 contracts in sophisticated bear spread (Long $30/$40 puts, Short $25/$35 puts)
• Strike/Exp: $25-$40 range / March 20, 2026 (72 days)
• Catalyst: Q1 2026 Phase 2 Explore-OSA topline results + CMO just sold $9.3M (50% of holdings)
• The Big Question: Does the CMO's massive insider dump signal OSA data disappointment?

This isn't a simple put buy - it's institutional-grade positioning for a 19-30% correction to $28-32. When the Chief Medical Officer sells half their stock days before a major clinical readout, smart money notices.

2. MSTR - $24M Bitcoin Proxy Exit

UNDERSTAND WHY $24M IN CALLS GOT LIQUIDATED

• Flow: $24M closing profitable long call position (10,440 contracts at $160 strike)
• Strike/Exp: $160 / March 20, 2026 (72 days)
• Catalyst: Q4 earnings Feb 3-4 will reveal $17.44B unrealized Bitcoin loss from Q4's 25% BTC drop
• The Big Question: Why exit now when Bitcoin could rally into halving?

This trade closed 22% of total open interest at this strike. The urgency (sold below bid) screams "get me out before earnings." When MSTR reports that $17B loss with 20%+ implied move priced in, this trader wants to be watching from the sidelines.

3. META - $14.7M Premium Collection Play

ANALYZE THE AGGRESSIVE COVERED CALL INCOME STRATEGY

• Flow: $14.7M selling 2,594 calls at $630 strike (currently 4% ITM at $656)
• Strike/Exp: $630 / March 20, 2026 (72 days)
• Catalyst: Q4 earnings late January + Avocado AI assistant launch + Reality Labs restructuring
• The Big Question: With META at all-time highs, is upside limited through Q1?

Selling ITM calls is aggressive. These traders collected 8.7% yield in 72 days betting META stays range-bound ($600-$670) through earnings volatility. They're monetizing uncertainty rather than betting on direction.

4. AMD - $8M AI Chip Conviction

SEE WHY SOMEONE COLLECTED $8M BETTING ON AI DOMINANCE

• Flow: $8M premium collected selling 1,000 puts at $250 strike (19% above current $210)
• Strike/Exp: $250 / January 21, 2028 (745 days - LEAP!)
• Catalyst: OpenAI 6-gigawatt MI450 deployment begins H2 2026 (potentially $100B+ deal)
• The Big Question: Can AMD capture significant AI market share from Nvidia's 80%+ dominance?

This is maximum conviction on 2-year timeframe. Effective breakeven at $170 provides 19% cushion. The trader believes AMD's AI revolution is just beginning.

5. GOOG - $6.2M Earnings Insurance

DISCOVER THE $6.2M PORTFOLIO HEDGE BEFORE Q4 NUMBERS

• Flow: $6.2M buying 5,000 ATM puts at $320 strike
• Strike/Exp: $320 / February 6, 2026 (30 days - expires 3 days post-earnings)
• Catalyst: Q4 earnings February 3 after historic 65% rally to all-time highs
• The Big Question: At 23x forward P/E with DOJ breakup risk, is protection finally warranted?

Z-score: 495.54 - This happens 2-3 times per year. Someone managing a ~$160M GOOG position is buying earthquake insurance before the biggest earnings event of Q1.

6. FCX - $1.9M Copper Caution

EXPLORE THE DOWNSIDE BET AHEAD OF GRASBERG NEWS

• Flow: $1.9M buying 15,500 puts at $50 strike
• Strike/Exp: $50 / February 20, 2026 (44 days)
• Catalyst: Q4 earnings January 28 reveals Grasberg mine disaster impact + 35% production cuts
• The Big Question: Can FCX justify 38x P/E at 52-week highs with production still impaired?

The numbers don't add up: stock at highs while Grasberg operates at 65% capacity. This bet says reality catches up in January earnings.

7. RBLX - $1.5M Gaming Growth Bet

ANALYZE THE BULLISH BET ON ADVERTISING TRANSFORMATION

• Flow: $1.5M buying 2,000 calls at $80 strike (4.4% above current $76.63)
• Strike/Exp: $80 / March 20, 2026 (72 days)
• Catalyst: Q4 earnings Feb 5-18 with first detailed advertising revenue disclosure
• The Big Question: Will the advertising platform justify Roblox's valuation re-rating?

Z-score: 35.44 - Extreme unusual activity ahead of what could be a business model inflection point. Advertising revenue disclosure could unlock massive multiple expansion.

8. KWEB - $1M China Turnaround Thesis

DECODE THE MACRO BET ON CHINA INTERNET RECOVERY

• Flow: $1M buying 4,250 calls at $41 strike (15% above current $35.57)
• Strike/Exp: $41 / September 18, 2026 (254 days)
• Catalyst: Goldman Sachs 20% upside forecast + China "Two Sessions" policy March 2026
• The Big Question: Will Beijing's stimulus finally lift Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com?

Patient capital betting on China's internet giants. The 8-month timeframe gives multiple catalysts (earnings, policy meetings, stimulus) to play out.

Upcoming Catalysts: Don't Confuse Events with Expirations

Earnings Calendar (Trade Catalysts)

Clinical/Regulatory Catalysts

Macro Catalysts

Your Playbook by Investor Type

For the YOLO Trader (1-2% Portfolio Max)

High Risk/High Reward Binary Bets:

MLYS puts - If OSA data disappoints, this 72-day bet could 3-5x. CMO insider selling adds conviction.

RBLX calls - Advertising revenue surprise could send this 20%+ in February. Z-score 35.44 shows rare conviction.

KWEB calls - Levered bet on China turnaround. Goldman's 20% upside call provides air cover.

Warning: These are lottery tickets. Size accordingly - if you can't lose 100%, don't play.

For the Swing Trader (3-5% Portfolio)

2-8 Week Opportunities with Institutional Backing:

Earnings Fade: Consider GOOG puts or FCX puts into their respective January earnings

Bitcoin Caution: The MSTR exit signals smart money de-risking - consider following

Range-Bound Tech: META's covered call structure suggests $600-$670 trading range through Q1

Risk Management: Set 30% stop losses. Take 50% profit at 50% gains.

For the Premium Collector (Income Focus)

Follow the Institutional Sellers:

META covered calls - $14.7M in premium sold at $630 strike. If you own META, consider selling March calls for 8%+ yield

AMD cash-secured puts - The $8M whale sold at $250. If you'd own AMD at $170 effective cost, this is your play

High IV harvesting - MLYS and MSTR have elevated volatility. Sell premium if you understand the risks

Golden Rule: Only sell premium on stocks you're willing to own. Close winners at 50% profit.

For the Entry-Level Investor (Learning Mode)

Start Here Before Trading Options:

Watch, don't trade the GOOG put through earnings - see how portfolio insurance works

Study the META covered call structure - understand income generation vs. directional betting

Paper trade the MLYS bear spread - learn multi-leg strategy mechanics before risking capital

If you must participate: Consider small ETF positions (QQQ, XLK) rather than single-stock options

Critical: If you don't understand Greeks (delta, theta, vega), spend 30 days studying before trading real money.

Risk Warnings: What Could Go Wrong

If You're Bullish (AMD, RBLX, KWEB):

• AMD: Nvidia's 80% AI market share is entrenched. MI400/MI500 execution risk is real.
• RBLX: Advertising revenue could disappoint. User growth in mature markets is slowing.
• KWEB: China policy is unpredictable. Geopolitical tensions could overwhelm stimulus.

If You're Bearish (MLYS, FCX, GOOG):

• MLYS: OSA data could surprise positively. Biotech sentiment can turn on a dime.
• FCX: Grasberg recovery could accelerate. Copper demand from AI/EVs could surge.
• GOOG: AI momentum could drive another leg higher. Cloud growth reaccelerating.

If You're Selling Premium (META):

• META: Unexpected breakout above $700 on AI announcements destroys short call positions.

Universal Reminder:

Today's $83.8M represents sophisticated institutional strategies. We see the visible trades - we don't see their hedges, their other positions, or their risk management. Don't blindly copy. Understand the thesis, size appropriately, and manage risk.

Expiration Tags

Monthly (Feb 2026)

• GOOG - Feb 6 expiry (30 days)
• FCX - Feb 20 expiry (44 days)

Quarterly (Mar 2026)

• MLYS - Mar 20 expiry (72 days)
• MSTR - Mar 20 expiry (72 days)
• META - Mar 20 expiry (72 days)
• RBLX - Mar 20 expiry (72 days)

Quarterly (Sep 2026)

• KWEB - Sep 18 expiry (254 days)

LEAP (Jan 2028)

• AMD - Jan 21, 2028 expiry (745 days)

Complete Analysis Links

Bearish & Defensive Positioning ($34.6M)

• MLYS $26.5M Multi-Leg Put - Biotech Bear Bet
• GOOG $6.2M Long Put - Portfolio Insurance
• FCX $1.9M Long Put - Copper Hedge

Profit-Taking & Income ($38.7M)

• MSTR $24M Close Long Call - Bitcoin Exit
• META $14.7M Short Call - Covered Call Income

Bullish Conviction ($10.5M)

• AMD $8M Short Put - AI Chip LEAPS
• RBLX $1.5M Long Call - Advertising Growth
• KWEB $1M Long Call - China Recovery

Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The unusual activity tracked here represents sophisticated institutional strategies that may be part of larger hedged portfolios not visible to retail traders. Always practice proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Total Flow Summary:

• Total Tracked: $83,800,000
• Largest Position: MLYS $26.5M (32% of total flow)
• Theme Leaders: Hedging/Bearish $34.6M (41%), Profit-Taking/Income $38.7M (46%), Bullish $10.5M (13%)
• Tickers Analyzed: 8 companies across biotech, tech, semiconductors, crypto, gaming, commodities, China internet
• Expiry Range: February 2026 through January 2028 (LEAP)