Ainvest Option Flow Digest - 2025-12-26: 🔥 $118M Whale Wave: NVDA's $69M CES Bet + TSLA's $45M Robotaxi Wager + China Short Squeeze Setup
$118M Post-Holiday Whale Wave: NVDA's $69M CES bet, TSLA's $45M robotaxi wager, JPM's $2.2M LEAP, and FXI's $1.8M short cover. Complete breakdown with trading strategies for YOLO, swing, and income traders.
📅 December 26, 2025 | 🎄 Post-Holiday Institutional Positioning: AI Chips, EV Robotaxi, Banking LEAPs & China Policy Plays | ⚠️ Major Catalysts: CES Jan 5, TSLA Deliveries Jan 2, JPM Earnings Jan 15
🎯 The $118M Post-Christmas Institutional Tsunami
🔥 CONVICTION CAPITAL MOVES WHILE RETAIL SLEEPS: We tracked $118 MILLION in extraordinary options activity across 4 tickers on one of the thinnest trading days of the year. The headline: someone bet $69M on NVDANVDA-- ahead of Jensen Huang's CES keynote (10 days away), while another whale wagered $45M on TSLATSLA-- before Q4 deliveries (7 days away). Meanwhile, a sophisticated trader covered $1.8M in FXI short calls - removing bearish exposure right before China's Q1 policy announcements. When institutions trade this size on December 26th, they're not making holiday impulse decisions.
Total Flow Tracked: $118,000,000 💰
🚀 THE COMPLETE WHALE BREAKDOWN
1. 🤖 NVDA - The $69M CES Pre-Positioning Play
DECODE WHY SOMEONE BET $69 MILLION ON NVDA WITH CES 10 DAYS AWAY
- Flow: $69M deep in-the-money March $160 calls (19,000 contracts)
- What's Happening: Jensen Huang takes CES stage January 5th with expected Blackwell Ultra announcements + Groq partnership validates AI demand + China supply restrictions loosening for consumer GPUs
- YTD Performance: +172% ($51B stock buyback announced November)
- The Big Question: Will CES reveal next-gen architecture that justifies $4.58T market cap - or is this whale hedging a massive short elsewhere?
- Expiration: March 20, 2026 (Quarterly Triple Witch) - 84 days
Why This Trade Is Extraordinary: Deep ITM calls at $160 strike with NVDA at $190.84 means this trader paid $69M for $3.05 BILLION in stock exposure. They're not gambling on volatility - they want leveraged upside with defined risk. The March expiration captures both CES (Jan 5) and Q4 earnings (Feb 25).
2. ⚡ TSLA - The $45M Robotaxi Conviction Trade
ANALYZE THE $45M APRIL CALL BET POSITIONED FOR DELIVERIES + EARNINGS
- Flow: $45M April $510 calls (10,000 contracts) - one of the largest TSLA blocks of 2025
- What's Happening: Q4 deliveries drop January 2nd (7 days!), earnings January 28th, Cybercab production starts April 2026
- YTD Performance: Trading at 324x P/E - market pricing in robotaxi success
- The Big Question: Does this trader know delivery numbers will surprise, or is Cybercab timeline accelerating beyond public guidance?
- Expiration: April 17, 2026 (Quarterly) - 112 days
The Timing Is Surgical: This trade lands 7 days before deliveries, 33 days before earnings, and expires exactly as Cybercab production is scheduled to begin. With $510 strike requiring only 5.6% upside to break even, this is high-conviction positioning that spans THREE major catalysts.
3. 🏦 JPM - The $2.2M Deregulation LEAP
DISCOVER WHY $2.2M IS BETTING ON JPM $360 BY JANUARY 2027
- Flow: $2.2M January 2027 $360 calls (1,000 contracts) - 13-month runway
- What's Happening: Record 2024 performance (21% ROTCE vs 13-15% peers) + Basel III Endgame softening under Trump 2.0 + $50B buyback program + Investment banking renaissance
- YTD Performance: +65.6% (banking's best year since 2013)
- The Big Question: Can JPM sustain premium valuation as rate cuts begin and NII headwinds emerge?
- Expiration: January 15, 2027 (LEAP) - 385 days
The Deregulation Thesis: This isn't a Q1 trade - it's a structural bet on 13 months of regulatory tailwinds. Basel III softening could unlock $200B in lending capacity across big banks. Someone's betting JPM leads that charge to $360+ (10% upside from current $327.91).
4. 🇨🇳 FXI - The $1.8M Short Squeeze Setup
UNDERSTAND WHY SMART MONEY COVERED $1.8M IN CHINA SHORT CALLS
- Flow: $1.8M BUY TO CLOSE June $42 calls (12,000 contracts) - closing bearish exposure
- What's Happening: PBOC rate cuts expected Q1 + Two Sessions policy announcements March + DeepSeek AI breakthrough re-rating Chinese tech + 26.33% YTD rally
- YTD Performance: +26.33% despite persistent deflation and property crisis
- The Big Question: Why cover short calls now if you don't think China's about to rip higher?
- Expiration: June 18, 2026 - 174 days (original position closed)
The Signal Behind The Cover: This wasn't opening a new position - someone CLOSED their bearish bet. When sophisticated money pays $1.8M to eliminate upside risk 6 months out, they're either taking profits or worried about catalysts. With Two Sessions in March and PBOC cuts expected Q1, this looks like defensive positioning ahead of policy tailwinds.
⏰ CRITICAL CATALYST CALENDAR
🚨 THIS WEEK & NEXT (Immediate Action Required)
📅 JANUARY EARNINGS SEASON
🗓️ Q1 2026 POLICY CATALYSTS
📊 Smart Money Themes: Reading Between The Trades
🤖 AI Infrastructure Dominance (60% of Flow: $69M)
The NVDA trade isn't just bullish - it's STRUCTURAL. Deep ITM calls with 84 days to expiry through CES and earnings suggests this trader wants stock-like exposure with leverage. They're not betting on volatility (they'd buy OTM) - they're betting on direction.
→ NVDA: Full technical setup, gamma levels, and trading ideas
⚡ EV/Robotaxi Conviction (38% of Flow: $45M)
The TSLA trade is binary betting at scale. $510 calls need a 5.6% move to break even, but this trader gave themselves 112 days spanning deliveries, earnings, AND Cybercab production start. Either they know something about the timeline or they're comfortable with asymmetric risk.
→ TSLA: Complete catalyst breakdown and risk analysis
🏦 Banking Deregulation Play (2% of Flow: $2.2M)
The JPM LEAP is a 13-month thesis, not a trade. This is patient capital betting on structural tailwinds: Basel III softening, sustained buybacks, and investment banking recovery. The long duration suggests institutional positioning, not speculation.
→ JPM: Deep dive on regulatory catalysts and price targets
🇨🇳 China Policy Pivot (2% of Flow: $1.8M)
The FXI cover is the most interesting signal. When bearish traders close positions, they're not adding to bullish bets - they're removing risk. Someone decided $1.8M was worth paying to NOT be short China into Q1. That's not capitulation - that's informed caution.
→ FXI: Policy catalyst analysis and gamma levels
🎯 Your Action Plan by Investor Type
🎰 YOLO Trader (1-2% Portfolio MAX Per Position)
⚠️ EXTREME RISK - Binary outcomes, asymmetric payoff
High-Conviction Lottery Tickets:
NVDA CES Catalyst (10 DAYS TO KEYNOTE)
Exit Strategy: Take 100%+ gains immediately. Cut losses at 50%. Never hold through binary event unless that's your explicit thesis.
⚖️ Swing Trader (3-5% Portfolio Per Position)
Multi-week opportunities with institutional backing
Primary Swing Plays:
TSLA Multi-Catalyst Play (Hold through Jan 28)
China Recovery Basket (Hold through March Two Sessions)
💰 Premium Collector (Income Focus)
Harvest volatility premium from institutional activity
High IV Opportunities:
NVDA Calendar Spread
JPM Covered Call Enhancement
🛡️ Entry Level Investor (Learning Mode)
Start small, focus on education, build experience
Recommended Learning Path:
Observe how IV crush affects options after events
Study The Strategies
FXI BTC Order: What does "buy to close" mean? Read analysis
If You Must Trade (Small Size)
Critical Rules: - Never risk more than 1% per trade until you have 100+ trades of experience - Avoid earnings plays until you've watched 10+ cycles - Study Greeks before trading (delta, theta, vega, gamma)
🚨 What Could Destroy These Trades
😱 If You're Following the Bulls
NVDA Risks: - CES announcements disappoint ("sell the news" after +172% YTD) - China restrictions tighten unexpectedly - Hyperscaler capex slowdown rumors - Q4 earnings miss in February
TSLA Risks: - Q4 deliveries miss badly (-20% YoY instead of -14%) - California DMV Autopilot suspension (11% of global volume) - Cybercab production delays announced - 324x P/E multiple questioned in risk-off environment
JPM Risks: - Basel III softening doesn't materialize under new administration - NII compression worse than expected - Credit deterioration in commercial real estate - Rate cuts accelerate, hurting bank margins
FXI Risks (for bullish follow-on trades): - Deflation worsens (CPI at 0.1%) - Property crisis contagion (Vanke record losses) - US tariff escalation under Trump 2.0 - Fund outflows continue despite gains ($2.36B outflows despite +26% YTD)
⚠️ Risk Management: The Non-Negotiables
Position Sizing (NEVER Break These)
- YOLO: 1-2% max per position
- Swing: 3-5% max per position
- Premium Collector: 10-15% max allocated to sold premium
- Entry Level: 1% max per position until 100+ trades
Stop Losses Are Mandatory
- Options: 30-50% loss triggers exit
- Spreads: 50% of max loss
- Never average down on losing options positions
Time Decay Awareness
- January expiries losing 3-5% value per day now
- February expiries enter rapid decay after Jan 15
- LEAPS (2026-2027) safer for beginners due to slower theta decay
The Institutional Reality Check
These $118M in trades represent sophisticated players with: - Research we don't see - Hedges in multiple instruments we can't observe - Portfolio context that changes the risk profile - Ability to withstand 50%+ drawdowns
We see: NVDA $69M call buy They might have: Short NVDA stock, long AMD puts, short semiconductor futures
Don't blindly copy institutional trades. Use them as signals to inform YOUR thesis.
🔗 Complete Analysis Directory
🤖 AI & Tech:
⚡ EV & Robotaxi:
🏦 Banking & Financials:
🇨🇳 China & Emerging Markets:
📈 Ainvest Stock/ETF Deep Dives:
📊 Option Chain Analysis:
🏷️ Expiration Tags
📅 Weekly (Jan 2-10)
- TSLA Q4 Deliveries Jan 2 - binary catalyst
- NVDA CES Keynote Jan 5 - event volatility
📆 Monthly (Jan 15-28)
- JPM Q4 Earnings Jan 15
- TSLA Q4 Earnings Jan 28
🗓️ Quarterly (Mar 20, Apr 17)
- NVDA Mar 20 (Triple Witch) - $69M position expiry
- TSLA Apr 17 (Quarterly) - $45M position expiry
🚀 LEAPS (2026-2027)
- FXI Jun 18, 2026 - covered short calls (closed position)
- JPM Jan 15, 2027 - $2.2M LEAP calls
🎯 Bottom Line: $118M Holiday Conviction
This isn't holiday noise - this is institutional conviction. When whales deploy $118 million across 4 strategic positions on December 26th, they're making calculated bets on:
The unified theme: These aren't speculative bets - they're structural positions spanning 3-13 months through multiple catalysts. Patient capital is positioning for 2026 while retail waits for January.
Your move: The catalyst calendar is loaded. TSLA deliveries in 7 days, CES in 10 days, JPM earnings in 20 days. If you're going to follow institutional flow, do it with proper sizing, defined risk, and clear exit rules.
Remember: We see the trades. We don't see the hedges. Position accordingly.
⚠️ Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The unusual activity tracked here represents sophisticated institutional strategies that may be part of larger hedged portfolios not visible to retail traders. These positions represent past institutional behavior and don't guarantee future performance. Always practice proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Options can expire worthless, resulting in 100% loss of premium paid.
📊 Flow Summary: - Total Tracked: $118,000,000 - Largest Position: NVDA $69M (58% of total flow) - Sector Breakdown: AI/Tech $69M (58%), EV/Robotaxi $45M (38%), Banking $2.2M (2%), China $1.8M (2%) - Expiry Range: Weekly (Jan 2-10) through LEAP (Jan 2027) - Sentiment: Overwhelmingly bullish directional with one defensive cover
Ainvest Option Flow Digest is published daily, analyzing institutional options positioning to help retail traders understand smart money flows. Subscribe for daily updates and in-depth analysis.
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