Ainvest Option Flow Digest - 2025-12-15: $232M Whale Moves Before Triple Witching

GLD bulls dominate with $112.6M bet, while SPY hedgers position ahead of Friday's Triple Witching

Today at a Glance

Total Premium Flow: $232.2M

The Big Picture

Triple Witching Friday (Dec 19) is just days away - when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all expire simultaneously. Institutional traders are positioning aggressively. Three themes dominate:

Gold is the star - GLD saw $112.6M in call spreads, the largest single-name flow we've tracked in weeks. Traders continue betting on gold strength into year-end.

Hedging intensifies - SPY's $44.9M put butterfly and ORCL's $10.2M synthetic short show institutions aren't taking chances into year-end.

Triple Witching positioning - Weekly options on CEG, KEY, MRK, and GLD all expire Friday. Expect elevated volume, wider spreads, and potential gamma-driven price swings.

Trade Ideas by Investor Style

For the YOLO Trader (Weekly Expirations)

CEG Bull Call Spread - $8.9M flow targeting $260+ by December 19. Nuclear energy demand from AI data centers is real, and this weekly play offers defined risk with 2:1 potential reward. Read full CEG analysis

KEY Bull Call Spread - $13.4M bet on banking sector strength. Scotiabank's stake signals confidence, and weekly options offer leveraged upside into year-end. Read full KEY analysis

MRK Dividend Play - $4.7M in deep ITM covered calls ahead of the $0.81 dividend ex-date on December 16. Classic dividend capture strategy. Read full MRK analysis

Risk Reality: Weekly expirations mean theta decay is brutal. These are hit-or-miss trades - size accordingly.

For the Swing Trader (Monthly Expirations)

GLD Multi-Leg Spread - The $112.6M whale trade spans December 19 and January 30 expirations. Gold typically rallies post-Fed regardless of rate decision. Consider spreading entries across both timeframes. Read full GLD analysis

SPY Put Butterfly - January 2026 expiration gives time for year-end volatility to play out. The butterfly structure means max profit at a specific price level - this is a precision hedge, not a directional bet. Read full SPY analysis

ORCL Put Protection - $10.2M in synthetic short positioning after disappointing Q2 guidance. Mixed expirations (Dec 19, Jan 9, Mar 20) suggest staged hedging. Read full ORCL analysis

Risk Reality: Monthly options still decay, just slower. Set stop losses at 50% of premium paid.

For the Premium Collector (Quarterly Plays)

CI Short Calls - March 2026 expiration on a stock facing PBM regulatory headwinds. If you're bearish on healthcare policy, selling calls here collects premium while waiting for downside. Read full CI analysis

ASND Roll Forward - March 2026 calls rolled from earlier positions. The conviction play here is YORVIPATH approval momentum and CNP PDUFA in February 2026. Premium sellers could consider put spreads for defined risk income. Read full ASND analysis

Risk Reality: Longer expirations mean more time to be wrong. Keep position sizes small and define your max loss upfront.

For the Long-Term Investor (LEAPS)

NOW Position Close - $7.6M in LEAPS closed before the 4:1 stock split on January 13. If you hold NOW, the split creates opportunities for fresh LEAPS entries at adjusted strikes. The Armis acquisition adds to the long-term thesis. Read full NOW analysis

GOOGL Profit-Taking - The $27M position close after the Willow quantum chip rally shows smart money banking gains. Long-term AI thesis remains intact - consider buying the dip if one materializes. Read full GOOGL analysis

Risk Reality: LEAPS require patience. Don't check daily. Set calendar reminders for major catalysts only.

What's on the Calendar

What is Triple Witching? The simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options. This happens four times a year (March, June, September, December) and typically causes elevated volume and volatility, especially in the final hour of trading.

Risk Management Reminders

• Triple Witching volatility: Friday will see massive volume and potential whipsaws, especially in the final hour. Avoid new positions after 3pm ET.
• Year-end liquidity: Trading desks thin out - spreads widen, fills get worse.
• Position sizing: No single trade should risk more than 2-5% of your portfolio.
• Patience pays: The best trades often come from waiting, not chasing. Consider sitting out Friday afternoon entirely.

Bottom Line

Today's $232M in whale activity tells a clear story: GLD bulls are loaded, SPY and ORCL hedges are in place, and profit-taking is happening on AI winners like GOOGL and NOW. With Triple Witching on Friday, expect elevated volatility into year-end.

Trade the plan, not the emotion.

Today's Full Analysis Links

Premium analysis powered by Ainvest | Options data via ThetaData | Published December 15, 2025