Ainvest Option Flow Digest - 2025-12-08: $639M Whale Wave Hits AI Chips, Crypto & Healthcare - Institutions Position for Year-End Breakouts

Generated by AI AgentAInvest Option Flow
Monday, Dec 8, 2025 3:21 pm ET6min read
Speaker 1
Speaker 2
AI Podcast:Your News, Now Playing
AVGO
--
COIN
--
CRWV
--
AMP
--
AI
--
BTC
--
TST
--
Aime RobotAime Summary

- Institutions allocated $639M in year-end bets, led by Broadcom’s $402M AI chip investment and CoreWeave’s $83M cloud positioning ahead of its IPO.

- Coinbase’s $63M calendar spread targets Bitcoin’s $100K test, while Robinhood’s $29M bet reflects crypto trading momentum and retail investor growth.

-

Healthcare
and defensive plays include Merck’s $14M post-Keytruda positioning and a $1.5M bear put spread on European equities, highlighting sector diversification.

December 8, 2025 | MASSIVE FLOW: AVGO's $402M AI Chip Bet + CRWV's $83M Cloud Moonshot + COIN's $63M Crypto Calendar | Semiconductors, Crypto & Biotech Lead the Charge

The $639M Institutional Tsunami: AI Infrastructure &
Crypto
Lead Year-End Positioning

UNPRECEDENTED CONCENTRATION: We just tracked $639 MILLION in explosive options activity across 9 tickers - headlined by Broadcom's jaw-dropping $402M 3-leg custom diagonal spread (the largest semiconductor options bet we've seen this quarter!), CoreWeave's $83M AI cloud positioning ahead of potential IPO, and Coinbase's $63M calendar spread as

Bitcoin
tests $100K. This is institutions making their year-end bets on AI infrastructure dominance, crypto momentum, and healthcare transformation stories.

Total Flow Tracked: $639,000,000 Most Shocking: AVGO $402M custom 3-leg call strategy - institutional conviction on AI chip dominance AI Infrastructure: AVGO $402M +

CRWV
$83M = $485M combined AI infrastructure bet Crypto Momentum: COIN $63M + HOOD $29M = $92M crypto/fintech positioning Healthcare Plays: MRK $14M + VTYX $2.2M = $16.2M pharma/biotech strategies

THE COMPLETE WHALE LINEUP: All 9 Institutional Positions

1. AVGO - The $402M AI Chip Infrastructure Powerhouse

DISCOVER WHY $402M IS BETTING ON THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE BACKBONE

  • Flow: $402M custom 3-leg diagonal call spread
  • Strategy: Debit spread capturing AI infrastructure upside
  • YTD Performance: +120% (AI networking + VMware synergies)
  • Expiration: January 17, 2025 / December 19, 2025
  • The Big Question: Will Q4 earnings confirm VMware integration synergies + AI networking dominance?
  • Catalyst: Q4 earnings December 12, 2025 - VMware revenue contribution + AI chip demand

2. CRWV - The $83M AI Cloud Infrastructure Moonshot

ANALYZE THE MASSIVE $83M BET ON AI CLOUD GIANT BEFORE IPO

  • Flow: $83M diagonal call spread (long-term bullish with near-term protection)
  • Strategy: January 2028 / March 2026 diagonal positioning
  • YTD Performance: +112% from IPO price
  • Expiration: January 2028 / March 2026 (LEAPS positioning)
  • The Big Question: Can
    CoreWeave
    sustain hyperscaler-level growth as AI infrastructure leader?
  • Catalyst: 2026 IPO potential, AI cloud capex expansion, GPU capacity buildout

3. COIN - The $63M Bitcoin $100K Play

DECODE THE CALENDAR SPREAD AHEAD OF BITCOIN'S $100K TEST

  • Flow: $63M calendar spread
  • Strategy: Time decay harvesting with directional upside
  • YTD Performance: +92% (crypto infrastructure winner)
  • Expiration: January 17, 2025 / December 20, 2024
  • The Big Question: Will Bitcoin breaking $100K trigger institutional FOMO into crypto exchanges?
  • Catalyst: Bitcoin ETF flows, crypto regulatory clarity, Q4 trading volumes

4. HOOD - The $29M Fintech Crypto Convergence

UNDERSTAND WHY $29M IS BETTING ON ROBINHOOD'S CRYPTO SURGE

  • Flow: $29M bullish 3-leg call spread
  • Strategy: Multi-expiration bullish positioning
  • YTD Performance: +233% (crypto-driven revenue acceleration)
  • Expiration: February 21, 2025 / December 19, 2025 / December 20, 2024
  • The Big Question: Can Robinhood's crypto revenue sustain post-Bitcoin rally growth?
  • Catalyst: Q4 earnings, crypto trading volume, retail investor sentiment

5. U - The $27M Unity Bear Call Spread

ANALYZE THE BEARISH $27M BET ON GAMING ENGINE TURNAROUND

  • Flow: $27M bear call spread
  • Strategy: Premium collection with limited upside belief
  • YTD Performance: +67% recovery from lows
  • Expiration: January 17, 2026
  • The Big Question: Is Unity's turnaround already priced in after management changes?
  • Catalyst: Gaming industry spending, AR/VR adoption, pricing model stabilization

6. DAL - The $18M Complex Roll Strategy

EXPLORE THE 6-LEG INSTITUTIONAL REBALANCE INTO AIRLINE LEADER

  • Flow: $18M complex 6-leg roll
  • Strategy: Position management across multiple expirations
  • YTD Performance: Near 52-week highs
  • Expiration: January 17, 2025 / December 19, 2025 / January 16, 2026
  • The Big Question: Will holiday travel demand sustain airline momentum into 2026?
  • Catalyst: Q4 travel volumes, fuel cost trends, capacity management

7. MRK - The $14M Post-Keytruda Era Positioning

DECODE THE DOUBLE CALENDAR SPREAD FOR PHARMA GIANT

  • Flow: $14M double calendar spread
  • Strategy: Time decay harvesting across two expirations
  • YTD Performance: -22% from highs (Keytruda patent cliff concerns)
  • Expiration: March 21, 2025 / April 17, 2025
  • The Big Question: Can Merck's pipeline offset Keytruda revenue decline post-2028?
  • Catalyst: FDA approvals, pipeline updates, Keytruda biosimilar timeline

8. VTYX - The $2.2M Biotech Catalyst Play

UNDERSTAND THE CLOSING SPREAD BEFORE Q1 2026 R&D DAY

  • Flow: $2.2M closing spread repositioning
  • Strategy: Position adjustment ahead of R&D catalyst
  • YTD Performance: +43.5% in past 2 weeks
  • Expiration: March 21, 2026
  • The Big Question: Will NLRP3 pipeline data validate the clinical thesis?
  • Catalyst: Q1 2026 R&D Day, inflammatory disease trial updates

9. FEZ - The $1.5M European Hedge

ANALYZE THE BEARISH SPREAD ON EUROZONE RALLY

  • Flow: $1.5M bear put spread
  • Strategy: Downside protection on European equities
  • YTD Performance: +34.6%
  • Expiration: January 17, 2026
  • The Big Question: Is European equity rally exhausted after strong 2025?
  • Catalyst: ECB policy, European economic data, geopolitical risks

Complete Summary Table

URGENT: Critical Expiries & Catalysts

4 DAYS TO
AVGO
EARNINGS (December 12)

December Options Expiration Week (December 19-20)

January 2025 Expiry Cluster

Q1 2026 Catalyst Window

Smart Money Themes: What Institutions Are Really Betting

AI Infrastructure Dominance (76% of Today's Flow: $485M)

The AI Arms Race Intensifies:

Crypto & Fintech Momentum ($92M Combined)

Bitcoin $100K Positioning:

Bearish & Defensive Positioning ($28.5M Hedges)

Institutions Taking Profits & Hedging:

Healthcare Strategic Plays ($16.2M)

Pharma & Biotech Catalysts:

Your Action Plan: How to Trade Each Signal

YOLO Plays (1-2% Portfolio MAX)

EXTREME RISK - Binary events with asymmetric payoff

Semiconductor Earnings Gamble:

  • AVGO weekly calls
     - December 12 earnings binary (Q4 guidance is everything)
  • Risk: Total loss if guidance disappoints
  • Reward: 3-5x if VMware synergies + AI demand exceed expectations

Crypto Momentum Chase:

  • COIN short-dated calls
     - Bitcoin $100K breakout play
  • Risk: Crypto pullback destroys premium
  • Reward: 200-300% if Bitcoin sustains above $100K

Biotech Catalyst Lottery:

  • VTYX March calls
     - R&D Day binary (EXTREME volatility)
  • Risk: Pipeline data disappoints = total loss
  • Reward: 5x+ if NLRP3 data validates thesis

Swing Trades (3-5% Portfolio)

Multi-week opportunities with institutional backing

AI Infrastructure Basket:

Crypto Conviction:

Healthcare Calendar Plays:

  • MRK Mar/Apr calendars
     - Copy institutional calendar strategy
  • Timeline: Hold through Q1 2025 pipeline updates

Premium Collection (Income Strategy)

Follow institutional sellers to harvest premium

High IV Plays:

Defensive Premium:

  • FEZ put spreads
     - European downside protection with defined risk
  • Timeline: Quarterly expiries for optimal theta decay

Entry Level (Learning Mode)

Start small, focus on education, build experience

Recommended Starting Points:

  • Paper trade first: Track AVGO earnings reaction, COIN crypto moves, MRK calendar behavior for 30 days
  • Quality shares: Consider AVGO shares for AI exposure (avoid complex options initially)
  • ETF exposure: QQQ for semiconductor/tech, IBIT for crypto exposure without single-stock risk
  • Educational focus: Study the calendar spread mechanics from MRK ($14M), diagonal structure from CRWV ($83M)

    • Why this approach: Options amplify both gains AND losses. AVGO's $402M bet is a 3-leg diagonal - complex for beginners. Start by understanding why institutions use these structures before replicating.

    Critical rules for beginners:

    • Never risk more than 1% of portfolio per trade
    • Don't trade AVGO earnings week until you've watched 10+ cycles
    • Avoid VTYX biotech binary - too speculative for new traders
    • If you don't understand delta/theta/vega, study before trading

    Expiry Classification: Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly & LEAPS

    Weekly/Near-Term (December 2024)

    • COIN December 20, 2024 leg - calendar spread short leg
    • HOOD December 20, 2024 leg - multi-leg positioning

    Monthly (January-February 2025)

    • AVGO January 17, 2025 + December 19, 2025 - earnings + AI thesis
    • COIN January 17, 2025 - calendar long leg
    • DAL January 17, 2025 + December 19, 2025 - complex roll legs
    • HOOD February 21, 2025 - extended crypto thesis

    Quarterly (Q1-Q2 2026)

    • U January 17, 2026 - gaming sector assessment
    • FEZ January 17, 2026 - European outlook
    • DAL January 16, 2026 - long-term airline positioning
    • MRK March 21, 2025 + April 17, 2025 - calendar structure
    • VTYX March 21, 2026 - R&D catalyst play

    LEAPS (2026+)

    • CRWV January 2028 / March 2026 - multi-year AI cloud thesis
    • HOOD December 19, 2025 leg - extended crypto momentum

    Risk Management: What Could Destroy These Trades

    If You're Following the Bulls

    AI Infrastructure Plays (AVGO, CRWV):

    • AVGO Q4 guidance disappoints on VMware integration timeline
    • AI chip demand slows as hyperscaler capex normalizes
    • CRWV faces competition from AWS/Azure/GCP internal builds
    • Valuation compression if growth rates decelerate

    Crypto Momentum (COIN, HOOD):

    • Bitcoin fails $100K and reverses sharply
    • Regulatory crackdown on crypto exchanges
    • Retail trading volume declines post-hype
    • Competition from traditional brokers intensifies

    Healthcare Bets (VTYX):

    • NLRP3 data disappoints at R&D Day
    • Biotech sector rotation into large-cap pharma
    • Clinical trial delays or safety signals

    If You're Following the Bears

    Unity Bear Spread (U):

    • Gaming industry recovery stronger than expected
    • AR/VR catalyst accelerates Unity adoption
    • M&A speculation drives stock higher
    • New management exceeds turnaround expectations

    European Hedge (FEZ):

    • ECB dovish pivot supports European equities
    • European earnings surprise to upside
    • Geopolitical de-escalation benefits EU markets

    The Bottom Line: AI Infrastructure Leads $639M Year-End Positioning Wave

    This is institutions making their final 2025 bets. $639 million concentrated across AI infrastructure ($485M AVGO + CRWV), crypto momentum ($92M COIN + HOOD), and strategic healthcare positioning ($16.2M MRK + VTYX). The unified theme: conviction on AI infrastructure as the decade's defining investment thesis, crypto as institutional-grade asset class, and selective healthcare catalyst plays.

    The biggest questions:

  • Will AVGO's $402M bet pay off on December 12 earnings?
  • Can CRWV's $83M positioning capture the AI cloud infrastructure opportunity?
  • Will Bitcoin's $100K test validate COIN's $63M calendar spread?
  • Is HOOD's $29M bet on retail crypto the right call at +233% YTD?

    • Your move: This concentrated positioning on AI infrastructure and crypto suggests institutions with strong year-end conviction. Follow the themes that align with your thesis - but remember these are sophisticated multi-leg strategies that may be part of larger portfolios we cannot see.

    Risk reminder: Don't blindly copy institutional trades. These $639M in positions come from sophisticated players with risk management we cannot observe. Position size appropriately, use stop losses, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.

    Complete Link Directory

    AI Infrastructure Plays

    Crypto & Fintech

    Bearish & Defensive

    Healthcare & Biotech

    Transportation

    Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The unusual activity tracked here represents sophisticated institutional strategies that may be part of larger hedged portfolios not visible to retail traders. These positions represent past institutional behavior and don't guarantee future performance. AVGO's $402M bet ahead of December 12 earnings is particularly high-stakes given binary earnings outcome. Always practice proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Entry level investors should paper trade extensively before committing real capital. Options can expire worthless, resulting in 100% loss of premium paid.

    Total Flow Summary:

    • Total Tracked: $639,000,000
    • Largest Position: AVGO $402M (63% of total flow)
    • Sector Leaders: AI Infrastructure $485M (76%), Crypto/Fintech $92M (14%), Healthcare $16.2M (3%)
    • Tickers Analyzed: 9 companies across semiconductors, AI cloud, crypto, fintech, gaming, airlines, pharma, biotech, European equities
    • Expiry Range: December 2024 through January 2028 (LEAPS)

    author avatar
    AInvest Option Flow

    Ainvest Option Flow Digest is published daily, analyzing institutional options positioning to help retail traders understand smart money flows. Subscribe for daily updates and in-depth analysis.

    Comments

    

    Add a public comment...
    No comments

    No comments yet