AIG Stock Surges 6.10% as Two-Day Gains Hit 6.25% Elevated Volume Fuels Short-Term Bullish Momentum

American International Group (AIG) has experienced a 6.10% surge in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of gains with a cumulative 6.25% increase. This sharp upward movement, coupled with elevated volume, suggests a potential short-term bullish momentum. Below is a technical analysis integrating key methodologies to assess the stock’s near-term trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action forms a bullish engulfing pattern, with the two-day rally closing well above prior consolidation levels. Key support levels are identified at $76.42 (Dec 9 close) and $76.31 (Dec 8 low), while resistance aligns with the recent high of $81.08 (Dec 10 close). A break above $81.08 could target $82.69 (Dec 10 high), but a failure to hold $76.42 may trigger a retest of $75.55 (Dec 8 low). The candlestick structure implies strong buying pressure, though caution is warranted if the price fails to sustain above $77.03 (Dec 5 high), which could signal a bearish reversal.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum aligns with the 50-day moving average ($78.50 approximated from recent data), while the 200-day MA ($79.50 approximated) remains a critical psychological level. The price crossing above the 50-day MA confirms a bullish bias, and a potential golden cross with the 200-day MA could amplify this. However, the 100-day MA ($79.00 approximated) acts as a near-term hurdle. A sustained break above $81.08 would strengthen the case for a multi-week uptrend, whereas a pullback below $77.00 may invite further consolidation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows narrowing bearish divergence, suggesting waning downside momentum. A crossover above the signal line would validate bullish momentum, though the RSI (calculated at ~68) approaches overbought territory. The KDJ indicator (Stochastic) reveals a stochastic divergence, with price making a new high while the %K line fails to confirm, hinting at potential exhaustion. This divergence, combined with the RSI nearing 70, may indicate a short-term correction is probable unless the trend extends beyond $82.69.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the price testing the upper band at $82.69 (Dec 10 high). A breakout above this level could trigger a volatility expansion phase, but the current position near the upper band suggests caution. Conversely, a pullback to the lower band (~$75.50) would indicate renewed bearish pressure. The narrow band contraction observed in late November (e.g., Nov 24–25) historically preceded sharp moves, suggesting similar dynamics could unfold.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged on the Dec 10 rally (13.1 million shares), validating the price strength. However, volume has since declined, raising questions about sustainability. A follow-through rally above $81.08 with increasing volume would confirm institutional participation, while a lack of volume during new highs may signal a topping pattern. The recent divergence between price and volume (e.g., Nov 21–22) historically preceded reversals, warranting close monitoring.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI stands at ~68, approaching overbought levels. A close above 70 would confirm bullish momentum but historically increases the risk of a pullback. The RSI’s failure to reach prior highs (e.g., 83 in early November) suggests weakening momentum, even as price extends higher. This divergence may foreshadow a countertrend move, with potential support at the 50–60 level.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key retracement levels from the Nov 10 low ($75.50) to the Dec 10 high ($81.08) include 61.8% at $78.50 and 38.2% at $77.50. A breakdown below $77.50 could target the 23.6% level at $76.80, aligning with recent support. Conversely, a break above $81.08 would aim for the 127.2% extension at $84.00, though this requires confirmation from volume and momentum indicators.

The confluence of bullish candlestick patterns, strong volume on the Dec 10 rally, and the 50-day MA alignment suggest a high-probability continuation of the uptrend in the near term. However, the RSI’s proximity to overbought levels, stochastic divergence, and Bollinger Band positioning imply caution. A pullback to test $77.00–$77.50 could offer a low-risk re-entry point, but failure to hold these levels may signal a deeper correction. Traders should monitor volume during any new highs and watch for a breakdown below $76.42 as a bearish signal.