AI Winter Looms: GPT-5, CoreWeave, and McKinsey's Skepticism Spark Concerns Over AI's Tangible Progress

The article suggests that the AI "winter" of 2025 may have arrived, with the recent release of GPT-5 from OpenAI receiving a tepid response. The model was criticized for not living up to expectations, and CoreWeave Inc.'s stock plummeted after guidance that showed revenue growth would be outpaced by capital expenditure increases. Research from McKinsey & Company also found that despite widespread adoption of generative AI, many companies have not seen significant bottom-line impact. The article concludes that these developments may be a sign that investors are becoming more skeptical of AI hype and that the field may be facing a period of reduced progress.

The year 2025 has seen a significant shift in investor sentiment towards AI, with some experts suggesting that an "AI winter" may be upon us. The recent release of GPT-5 from OpenAI has been met with a tepid reception, and CoreWeave Inc.'s stock plummeted after guidance indicated that revenue growth would be outpaced by capital expenditure increases. These developments, along with research from McKinsey & Company, suggest that investors are becoming more skeptical of AI hype and that the field may be facing a period of reduced progress.

The release of GPT-5, OpenAI's long-awaited new model, was anticipated to be a significant step towards artificial general intelligence. However, the model received a poor reception, with some users criticizing its performance and the company being forced to roll back to older models. This has led to a reevaluation of the progress being made in the AI field and has sparked debate among AI skeptics [1].

CoreWeave Inc., one of the few pure-play AI stocks, experienced a significant drop in its stock price after releasing guidance that showed revenue growth would be outpaced by capital expenditure increases. The company reported 207% year-over-year revenue growth but also incurred a net loss of $290.5 million and planned to spend $20-23 billion on capital expenditures [2]. This has led to a decline in investor confidence and a sell-off of the stock, despite the company's strong partnerships with major tech companies.

McKinsey & Company's research has also raised questions about the practical impact of AI in the business world. Despite widespread adoption of generative AI, only eight out of ten companies surveyed reported that it had not had a significant bottom-line impact [1]. This suggests that while AI may be making progress in certain areas, its overall impact on businesses remains to be seen.

These developments suggest that investors are becoming more cautious about AI investments. The AI winter of 2025 may reflect a period of reduced progress and increased skepticism, as companies and investors alike reassess their expectations for the field. However, it is important to note that the AI compute market is still growing rapidly, and companies like CoreWeave are well-positioned to capture a significant share of this growth.

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-18/is-chatgpt-5-the-start-of-ai-winter
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/coreweave-capitalizing-ai-compute-demand-short-term-volatility-2508/