AI Investment Surge Sparks Dot-Com Bubble Fears, OpenAI CEO Warns

The recent surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, sparked by the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, has raised concerns among industry experts. The founder of ChatGPT has expressed unease about the current state of AI investment, noting that many startups are securing hundreds of millions of dollars in funding based on little more than a business plan. This trend has led to comparisons with the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, where excessive speculation and overvaluation of internet-based companies ultimately led to a market crash.

OpenAI's CEO acknowledged the current enthusiasm for AI investments but emphasized the long-term societal benefits of the technology. "I think investors are overall too excited about AI right now," the CEO stated during a recent dinner with journalists. "But is AI the most important breakthrough in human history? My answer is yes." The CEO repeated the word "bubble" three times in 15 seconds, half-jokingly adding, "I guess someone will make a sensational headline out of this. Although I hope you won't, it doesn't matter."

Despite warnings about current valuations, OpenAI is prepared to invest heavily in infrastructure. "OpenAI will invest tens of billions of dollars in data centers in the near future," the CEO said. "Economists will surely worry and say, 'This is too crazy, too reckless,' and we will respond, 'Let's just do it.'" OpenAI has already begun to exceed the capacity limits of Microsoft Azure's cloud services and is seeking partnerships with other providers. Following a spring agreement with Google Cloud, the CEO admitted that the company's computational needs have surpassed the capabilities of any single large-scale supplier.

"We will acquire as much computing power as possible," the CEO added. "We are betting on sustained demand growth and unending training needs. Our investment may exceed any company betting on technological progress, as we are deeply convinced of the prospects we see." This trend is not limited to OpenAI; all major tech giants are aggressively pursuing AI advancements.

Recent financial reports indicate that tech giants are increasing their capital expenditures to meet AI demands. Microsoft has set its annual capital expenditure target at 120 billion dollars, Amazon has surpassed 100 billion dollars, Alphabet has increased its target to 85 billion dollars, and Meta has raised its capital expenditure ceiling to 72 billion dollars. A securities analyst noted that the demand for AI infrastructure has surged by 30-40% in recent months, describing this capital expenditure spree as a "moment of truth" for the industry.

The analyst acknowledged the presence of "local bubbles" in the market but emphasized that the AI revolution, including autonomous driving, is just beginning. "This is only the second inning of a nine-inning game," the analyst stated. A Citigroup analyst countered the comparison of the current AI boom to the dot-com bubble, arguing that today's companies are profitable and cash-rich, primarily relying on their own funds for growth, unlike the highly leveraged, loss-making companies of the past.

Concerns about overheating persist. Before the tech giants announced their latest capital expenditure plans, a prominent figure in the tech industry warned about the risks of AI investment. At a global investment summit, the figure expressed concerns about the AI bubble in the United States, the scale of data center construction, and the necessity of investing trillions of dollars. The figure questioned the wisdom of building data centers without clear demand and warned of the associated risks.

OpenAI's CEO views such cycles as a natural part of technological progress. The dot-com bubble burst eliminated many companies but laid the foundation for the modern internet. The CEO expects AI to follow a similar trajectory, experiencing high-profile failures before achieving lasting change. "Some investors may suffer significant losses, which is unfortunate. But overall, the value AI creates for society will be immeasurable."