AI Infrastructure Stocks: Why Vertiv (VRTX) and Coinbase (COIN) Are Catching Momentum in 2025

The AI revolution is no longer a speculative future—it's a present-day economic force reshaping industries, from finance to manufacturing. At the heart of this transformation lie two distinct but interconnected infrastructure plays: Vertiv (VRTX) and Coinbase (COIN). While Vertiv builds the physical backbone of AI computing, Coinbase is redefining the financial layer of the digital ecosystem. Both are gaining momentum in 2025, driven by surging demand for AI hardware, strategic partnerships, and a growing consensus among analysts. For investors, understanding their unique roles and operational strengths is key to capitalizing on the AI-driven economy.

Vertiv: Cooling the AI Fire

The most immediate bottleneck in AI infrastructure is thermal management. As AI models grow denser and more compute-intensive, traditional air-cooling systems are obsolete for racks exceeding 50–100 kW. Vertiv, a leader in data center infrastructure, has emerged as a critical player in this space with its liquid cooling solutions, including immersion cooling and direct-to-chip systems.

In Q1 2025, Vertiv delivered a masterclass in operational execution. Revenue rose 24% year-over-year to $2.036 billion, driven by a $7.9 billion backlog and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x. Adjusted EPS surged 49% to $0.64, and the company raised its full-year guidance to $11.85–$12 billion. These results underscore a business scaling with the AI boom.

Strategic positioning is Vertiv's core strength. Its partnership with NVIDIA is a differentiator: Vertiv has developed reference designs for NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 NVL72 platforms, enabling mass deployment of AI infrastructure. This alignment is critical, as 72% of AI infrastructure spending in 2024 was hardware-driven, with GPUs dominating the bill of materials.

Analyst sentiment has turned bullish. Citi, Mizuho, and Melius Research have upgraded their price targets, with the consensus price target now at $135.65 (an 8.18% upside from current levels). The company's $2.3 billion in liquidity and 0.8x net leverage ratio provide flexibility for R&D and capacity expansion.

However, risks persist. GPU shortages and geopolitical trade tensions could delay projects, and water usage in data centers remains a regulatory concern. Yet, Vertiv's early-mover advantage in liquid cooling—expected to grow at 39% CAGR through 2030—positions it as a durable long-term play.

Coinbase: The Financial Layer of AI

While Vertiv focuses on the physical layer, Coinbase operates in the financial and digital infrastructure space. The overlap between AI and crypto is striking: both require massive computational power, access to low-cost renewable energy, and advanced cooling solutions. This synergy has created a unique opportunity for Coinbase, which is leveraging its expertise in crypto infrastructure to pivot toward AI-driven services.

In Q2 2025, Coinbase announced a strategic partnership with Copper's ClearLoop network, enabling institutional clients to trade crypto with instant, off-exchange settlement using USDC. This move reduces counterparty risk and improves capital efficiency for hedge funds and institutional players. Additionally, Coinbase has expanded its onchain finance capabilities by acquiring talent from DeFi firm Opyn, signaling its intent to lead in decentralized derivatives and options trading.

The stock has responded positively, trading near its 52-week high of $398.50. While volatility remains a challenge—Coinbase's beta of 3.70 and P/E ratio of 68.03 reflect its high-risk, high-reward profile—its financial stability is notable. A quick ratio of 2.52 and a $92.44 billion market cap provide a buffer against macroeconomic headwinds.

Analysts are divided but cautiously optimistic. Thirteen of 24 analysts maintain a “Buy” rating, with an average price target of $313.10 (23.77% downside from current levels). Key drivers include projected 2025 revenue growth of 19.27% to $7.51 billion and the broader crypto adoption wave, with Bitcoin surging past $120,000.

Yet, Coinbase's reliance on transaction fees makes it vulnerable to crypto price swings. EPS is expected to decline in 2025, and regulatory uncertainty—particularly around tokenized assets and staked-asset services—adds complexity. For investors, patience is key: Coinbase's success hinges on its ability to adapt to evolving regulations and maintain its institutional client base.

Market Tailwinds and Earnings Catalysts

Both companies are riding broader market trends. The AI cooling market is projected to grow at 16.46% CAGR, reaching $40.72 billion by 2030, while liquid cooling alone is expected to expand at 39% annually. Vertiv's $275 million capex investment in 2025 directly addresses these needs, while Coinbase's pivot to AI cloud services mirrors the industry's shift toward sustainability.

Earnings catalysts are imminent. Vertiv's Q2 2025 results, due on July 30, 2025, will provide clarity on its ability to maintain its 18% sales growth guidance. Similarly, Coinbase's Q2 report on July 31 will highlight the impact of its ClearLoop integration and DeFi expansion. Both events could drive near-term momentum.

Historically, earnings releases have had divergent impacts on these stocks. For VRTX, 13 releases since 2022 have shown consistent underperformance, with the largest post-earnings decline at -3.21% on December 31, 2024. This suggests persistent skepticism among investors despite strong fundamentals. In contrast, COIN has delivered positive returns in 65% of its 26 earnings events, with the largest gain of +7.88% on November 2, 2025. This highlights Coinbase's ability to exceed expectations and sustain investor confidence.

Investment Advice: Balancing Growth and Risk

For investors seeking exposure to the AI revolution, Vertiv and Coinbase represent distinct but complementary opportunities. Vertiv is a long-term play on the physical infrastructure underpinning AI, with strong backlog, strategic partnerships, and a resilient business model. Its valuation is supported by a 16.5% adjusted operating margin and $265 million in Q1 free cash flow.

Coinbase, meanwhile, is a high-volatility bet on the convergence of crypto and AI. Its potential is immense, but its success depends on crypto price trends and regulatory outcomes. Pairing it with AI cloud providers (e.g., Microsoft) or crypto miners transitioning to AI (e.g., CoreWeave) can balance risk.

Diversification is critical. Investors should consider pairing Vertiv with GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA or energy providers like NextEra Energy to hedge against sector-specific risks. For Coinbase, a mix of AI cloud exposure and crypto infrastructure plays can create a more balanced portfolio.

Conclusion

The AI-driven economy is here, and infrastructure is its lifeblood. Vertiv and Coinbase are emblematic of this shift, each addressing a critical layer of the AI ecosystem. While Vertiv's role in cooling and scalability is structural, Coinbase's pivot toward AI cloud and DeFi highlights the fluidity of the digital economy. For investors with a 3–5 year horizon, these stocks offer compelling opportunities—but success requires a nuanced understanding of their risks and a willingness to adapt as the landscape evolves.

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