AI-Driven Trade Growth: Strategic Opportunities for 2040

The next decade will redefine global trade, with artificial intelligence (AI) emerging as a cornerstone of economic expansion. For investors, the most compelling opportunities lie not in the technology itself but in the infrastructure and policy frameworks that enable AI to scale in emerging markets. By 2040, nations that align digital infrastructure with AI-driven trade policies will dominate global value chains. India, Brazil, and South Africa-key players in the IBSA (India-Brazil-South Africa) alliance-offer a blueprint for how this alignment can unlock trillions in value.

The IBSA Model: Policy and Infrastructure in Sync

India, Brazil, and South Africa have prioritized digital public infrastructure (DPI) as a foundation for AI-driven trade. In 2025, the three nations jointly declared their intent to leverage DPI and AI to transform sectors like education, healthcare, and logistics. South Africa, during its G20 presidency, proposed a task force to build regionally diverse digital infrastructure and inclusive AI systems. Meanwhile, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has championed the IBSA Digital Innovation Alliance, a platform to share tools like UPI (Unified Payments Interface) and CoWIN (a digital health platform) across borders according to official sources. These initiatives are not just about technology-they are about creating interoperable systems that reduce trade friction and enable cross-border data flows.

Brazil's commitment to invest $4.07 billion in AI by 2028 underscores the urgency of infrastructure alignment according to industry analysis. This funding targets technological autonomy, a critical factor for nations seeking to avoid dependency on Western tech ecosystems. For investors, Brazil's strategy highlights the importance of energy and data-center infrastructure-AI's hidden costs are tied to power demands, with digital infrastructure projected to require $19 trillion in investments by 2040.

The Trade Multiplier: AI's Impact on Global Commerce

The World Trade Organization's 2025 report estimates that AI could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040, provided infrastructure and policy gaps are bridged. For emerging markets, this means closing digital divides in customs automation, logistics, and cross-border payments. India's UPI, which processes over 10 billion transactions annually, demonstrates how AI-driven fintech can reduce trade costs. Similarly, Brazil's use of AI in agricultural supply chains-optimizing crop yields and export routes-shows how infrastructure investments directly enhance trade competitiveness according to industry reports.

South Africa's G20 agenda further illustrates this dynamic. By advocating for AI norms that prioritize "human-centric" development according to policy analysis, the country is positioning itself as a hub for ethical AI in Africa. This aligns with India's AI Impact Summit, which emphasized global governance reforms to ensure equitable AI adoption. For investors, these efforts signal a shift from fragmented national strategies to regional collaboration, where shared infrastructure (e.g., cloud networks, 5G) becomes a trade enabler.

Strategic Investment Themes for 2040

1. Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI):
   IBSA's focus on DPI-such as India's CoWIN or Brazil's agricultural AI platforms-creates scalable models for other emerging markets. These systems reduce transaction costs and enable real-time data sharing, critical for AI-driven trade.

2. Energy-Backed AI Infrastructure:
   AI's power demands necessitate investments in renewable energy and grid modernization. Brazil's $4.07 billion AI fund, for instance, includes energy projects to support data centers according to industry analysis.

3. Customs and Logistics Automation:
   AI tools that streamline customs inspections and optimize shipping routes are gaining traction. The WTO notes that low-income countries lag in predictive analytics for tariffs, creating a $15 trillion opportunity for infrastructure-aligned AI solutions according to research.

4. South-South Cooperation Frameworks:
   The IBSA Digital Innovation Alliance exemplifies how emerging markets can bypass Western-dominated tech ecosystems. By 2040, such alliances could redefine trade corridors, prioritizing interoperable systems over proprietary ones.

Risks and Mitigations

While the potential is vast, risks include regulatory fragmentation and underinvestment in rural connectivity. South Africa's Draft National AI Plan, for example, lacks enforceable standards, highlighting the need for policy clarity. Investors should prioritize markets where governments explicitly tie AI strategies to trade growth, such as India's #AIFORALL initiative or Brazil's 2024–2028 AI roadmap according to policy analysis.

Conclusion: Aligning with the AI-Driven Trade Wave

The 2040 trade landscape will be shaped by nations that treat AI not as a standalone tool but as an infrastructure-integrated force. IBSA's collaborative approach-combining policy alignment, infrastructure investment, and ethical AI norms-offers a replicable model. For investors, the key is to target markets where these elements converge, ensuring that AI's trade-multiplier effect is not just theoretical but operational.