AI-Driven Quantum Rush Sparks Bitcoin Security Crisis

Solana Founder Warns Quantum Tech Could Break Bitcoin by 2030^[1] Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana, has issued a stark warning that quantum computing could render Bitcoin’s cryptographic security obsolete by 2030. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko emphasized a 50% probability of a quantum breakthrough within five years, urging the Bitcoin community to adopt quantum-resistant cryptographic protocols to safeguard transactions and wallets. He argued that the convergence of AI and quantum research is accelerating technological progress, making the threat more imminent than previously anticipated.

Bitcoin must act fast to beat quantum by 2030: Solana founder^[2] The vulnerability lies in Bitcoin’s reliance on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which is susceptible to quantum decryption. Yakovenko explained that quantum computers could derive private keys from public keys, exposing funds to theft. Cybersecurity experts like David Carvalho of Naoris Protocol have echoed this concern, stating that quantum advancements could “tear apart” Bitcoin’s cryptography in less than five years if current trends persist.

Solana founder says Bitcoin must act fast to beat quantum …^[3] Implementing a quantum-resistant solution, however, poses significant challenges. A hard fork—a major protocol update requiring consensus—would be necessary to transition Bitcoin to post-quantum cryptography. Such a move faces resistance from the Bitcoin community, which has historically been cautious about disruptive changes. Yakovenko stressed the urgency of acting before quantum capabilities outpace mitigation efforts, noting that “delaying adaptation would mean underestimating an existential risk.”

Quantum Computing Could Break Bitcoin In 5 Years^[4] The debate over the timeline for quantum threats remains contentious. While Yakovenko’s 2030 deadline reflects a cautious stance, others, including Blockstream CEO Adam Back, estimate the threat may materialize in 20 years. Samson Mow of Jan3 acknowledged the risk but suggested Bitcoin’s resilience and the likelihood of other systems failing first would ensure its survival. Despite these differing views, the consensus is that quantum computing represents a long-term risk to cryptographic systems.

Solana Founder Warns Quantum Tech Could Break Bitcoin by …^[5] Yakovenko also highlighted broader implications of quantum advancements, advocating for tech giants like Google and Apple to adopt quantum-resistant infrastructure. He framed quantum computing as a transformative force akin to AI, with the potential to revolutionize data processing and economic systems. However, he warned that without proactive measures, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin could become its greatest weakness if quantum attacks exploit its current cryptographic framework.

The urgency for action is compounded by the rapid pace of AI and quantum research. Yakovenko cited examples such as Google’s Willow project, which leverages AI to advance quantum computing, as evidence of the accelerating convergence of technologies. This synergy, he argued, could shorten the timeline for quantum breakthroughs, leaving little room for complacency.

While the Bitcoin community remains divided on the immediacy of the threat, Yakovenko’s warnings underscore the need for preemptive action. The technical and political challenges of a hard fork are substantial, but he argued that the cost of inaction—compromised security and lost trust—could be far greater. As quantum capabilities evolve, the debate over Bitcoin’s cryptographic future will likely intensify, shaping the next phase of the cryptocurrency’s development.