The AI-Driven Great Decoupling and Its Implications for Nasdaq-100 Reconstitution

The year 2025 marked a seismic shift in the Nasdaq-100 as artificial intelligence transitioned from speculative hype to a tangible driver of earnings and capital allocation. This transformation, dubbed the "Great Decoupling," has cleaved the market into two distinct camps: companies that have mastered AI monetization and those struggling to keep pace. As investors recalibrate their portfolios, the implications for the Nasdaq-100's reconstitution are profound, with high-conviction winners like NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Oracle emerging as cornerstones of the new AI-driven economy, while laggards like Apple and Tesla face mounting scrutiny.

High-Conviction Winners: NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Oracle

NVIDIA: The AI Infrastructure Behemoth
NVIDIA's Q3 2025 earnings report underscored its dominance in the AI infrastructure race. The company reported revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, driven by a record $51 billion in Data Center segment revenue. This growth was fueled by surging demand for its Blackwell GPU, which is now the backbone of hyperscaler and cloud provider operations. With gross margins holding at 73.4% GAAP according to financial reports, NVIDIA's profitability remains robust despite aggressive industry-wide spending. CEO Jensen Huang has forecasted trillions in AI infrastructure spending by the end of the decade as reported in earnings commentary, a projection that has galvanized investor confidence. The company's forward guidance for Q4-projecting $65 billion in sales according to Q4 estimates-further cements its position as a must-own asset in the AI era.

Alphabet: Scaling AI and Cloud with Precision
Alphabet's 2025 capital expenditures (CapEx) surged to $91–93 billion, reflecting its strategic pivot toward AI and Cloud services. Google Cloud revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $15.2 billion, with AI-driven products expanding at over 200% growth. This acceleration is underpinned by a $155 billion Cloud backlog according to Q3 financial reports, signaling sustained demand for Alphabet's AI infrastructure. The company's ability to integrate AI into core platforms-such as search and advertising-has positioned it as a long-term beneficiary of the AI monetization wave.

Oracle: Aggressive Expansion Amid Financing Challenges
Oracle's 2026 CapEx plans of $50 billion-a 43% increase from prior forecasts according to earnings analysis-highlight its aggressive push into AI infrastructure. The company is expanding cloud capacity through $248 billion in leases according to market reports and building new data centers to meet demand from clients like OpenAI. Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 68% in Q2 2026, reaching $8 billion, while its AI agents in Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP are revolutionizing enterprise finance. However, the company faces headwinds: free cash flow turned negative in Q2 2026, and its reliance on OpenAI has raised concerns about revenue diversification. Despite these risks, Oracle's strategic bets on multicloud and AI innovation according to market analysis suggest it remains a key player in the AI industrialization wave.

Underperformers: Apple and Tesla in the AI Shadow

The Great Decoupling has also exposed vulnerabilities in companies that failed to align with AI's monetization potential. Apple, for instance, has drawn criticism for its reliance on partnerships rather than in-house AI development. While the iPhone remains a cash cow, its AI offerings lag behind competitors, creating a valuation gap in a market increasingly prioritizing AI-driven growth. Similarly, Tesla faces skepticism over its automotive margins and ability to sustain its EV leadership. With AI reshaping industries from logistics to manufacturing, Tesla's lack of a clear AI monetization strategy has left it exposed to volatility.

Nasdaq-100 Reconstitution: Winners and Losers in the AI Era

The Nasdaq-100's 2025 reconstitution reflected this AI-driven realignment. Non-AI-native companies like Lululemon and Biogen were removed, while AI-aligned firms such as Palantir and Micron were added. This shift underscores a broader trend: investors are now prioritizing companies with tangible AI capabilities over those with legacy business models. Oracle's mid-December 2025 stock correction according to market analysis, driven by concerns over its AI CapEx-to-revenue conversion, further illustrates the market's demand for immediate monetization.

Strategic Positioning for 2026

As the AI industrialization wave accelerates, investors must focus on companies that are not only investing in AI but also translating those investments into earnings. NVIDIA's hardware dominance, Alphabet's Cloud-AI synergy, and Oracle's enterprise AI integration according to market analysis represent compelling long-term opportunities. Conversely, companies like Apple and Tesla, which lack clear AI monetization strategies, may struggle to justify their valuations in a market increasingly defined by AI-driven performance.

The Nasdaq-100's current price-to-earnings ratio of 38.2x according to market analysis suggests stretched valuations, but the Great Decoupling has created a clearer path for capital to flow toward AI leaders. For 2026, the key takeaway is simple: align with the companies that are building the future of AI, not just talking about it.