AI-Driven Economic Acceleration and Its Implications for Risk Assets

The global economy is undergoing a seismic shift driven by artificial intelligence (AI), with its transformative impact reshaping traditional investment paradigms. As AI-related capital expenditures surge, equities and cryptocurrencies are emerging as pivotal risk assets in a high-growth macro scenario. This analysis explores the investment potential of these asset classes, contextualized by macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and evolving market dynamics.

AI as a Catalyst for Economic Growth

AI has become a cornerstone of economic expansion, with its infrastructure investments contributing disproportionately to GDP growth. According to a report by EY, 92% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was attributed to AI data centers and supporting technologies. This trend is underpinned by a 18% annualized surge in AI-related business investment during the same period according to EY research, driven by demand for generative AI (GenAI) tools that enhance automation, decision-making, and operational efficiency across sectors.

Long-term projections suggest AI will permanently boost productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075 according to Wharton's budget model. However, the net contribution to domestic output is partially offset by the importation of AI-related hardware and software as reported by EY. Despite this, the labor market is already adapting, with occupations in the 80th percentile of earnings facing significant automation risks, while new, higher-value roles are expected to emerge according to Wharton's analysis.

Equities in the AI Infrastructure Ecosystem

AI-driven capital expenditures are reshaping equity markets, with technology stocks dominating performance metrics. Data from J.P. Morgan Global Research indicates that AI-related equities accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since 2022. This reflects a broader shift toward AI as a structural driver of corporate profitability, particularly in sectors like information technology, finance, and manufacturing according to EY analysis.

However, the risk-return profile of AI equities remains uneven. While institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to AI infrastructure, the sector faces challenges in translating adoption into consistent returns as noted by Equirus Wealth. For example, enterprise spending on agentic AI is projected to grow at a 150% CAGR from 2024 to 2028, reaching $51.5 billion according to Equirus Wealth, but this growth must be balanced against volatility linked to macroeconomic pressures, such as delayed interest rate cuts and rising bond yields according to AP News.

Cryptocurrencies in the AI-Driven Macro Scenario

Cryptocurrencies are also gaining traction in an AI-driven economy, though their performance diverges from traditional risk assets. Institutional adoption has accelerated, with $175 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) as of 2025 according to XBTO. Regulatory clarity, including the U.S. GENIUS Act and EU MiCA regulation, has bolstered confidence in digital assets, enabling stablecoins to become a $46 trillion annual transactional tool according to Chainalysis.

Bitcoin's role as a strategic allocation is underscored by its 2.42 Sharpe ratio in 2025, outperforming large-cap tech stocks (1.0) and demonstrating superior risk-adjusted returns according to XBTO. Yet, its performance has lagged behind tangible assets like gold (up 70% in 2025) and copper, which reflect industrial demand tied to AI infrastructure development according to XBTO. This divergence highlights a broader market preference for assets with clear macroeconomic correlations, though Bitcoin's liquidity-driven dynamics-tied to fiscal stimulus and global capital flows-position it for potential outperformance in 2026 according to Global Banking & Finance.

Macroeconomic and Regulatory Tailwinds

The interplay of macroeconomic factors and regulatory policies is critical to both asset classes. AI-related capital expenditures have surpassed U.S. consumer spending as the primary GDP growth driver, contributing 1.1% of GDP growth in H1 2025 according to Yale Insights. Meanwhile, liquidity expansion and fiscal stimulus are fueling a "supercycle" for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin acting as a proxy for global liquidity according to Global Banking & Finance.

Regulatory developments further amplify this dynamic. The U.S. and EU have introduced frameworks that promote digital asset innovation while ensuring compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) standards according to Chainalysis. For instance, the U.S. GENIUS Act has positioned stablecoins as a cornerstone of cross-border payments, while the EU's MiCA regulation has harmonized crypto rules across member states according to Chainalysis. These policies are fostering institutional participation, with 86% of institutional investors planning to allocate to crypto in 2025 according to Equirus Wealth.

Conclusion: Balancing Growth and Risk

In a high-growth macro scenario, both AI equities and cryptocurrencies offer compelling opportunities but require nuanced risk management. AI equities benefit from structural adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds but face volatility linked to earnings gaps and regulatory scrutiny. Cryptocurrencies, while demonstrating superior risk-adjusted returns, must navigate competition from tangible assets and evolving market sentiment.

Investors should prioritize diversification, leveraging AI-driven equities for long-term growth and cryptocurrencies for liquidity-sensitive allocations. As Raoul Pal notes, the convergence of AI and crypto markets under liquidity expansion suggests a favorable environment for both asset classes in 2026. However, vigilance against overvaluation risks-particularly in the AI sector-remains essential according to AP News.