AI Adoption Rises 2.8% in Q2 2025, Labor Market Impact Gradual

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and his team have conducted a comprehensive analysis of AI adoption, revealing a nuanced picture of its impact on the labor market. The AI Adoption Tracker, which draws from industry surveys, government data, and proprietary analysis, shows that while AI adoption is increasing, its effect on employment is evolving at a slower pace.

In the second quarter of 2025, 9.2% of U.S. companies were using AI to produce goods or services, up from 7.4% in the first quarter. Despite this surge, the overall labor market outcomes remain largely unaffected. Key metrics such as job growth, wage gains, unemployment rates, and layoff rates in AI-exposed industries have shown little statistically significant deviation from less exposed sectors. AI-related job postings now account for 24% of all IT openings, but still represent just 1.5% of total job postings, indicating a gradual shift in the broader workforce.

The unemployment rate for AI-exposed occupations has reconciled with the wider economy, refuting early fears of mass displacement. There have been no recent layoff announcements explicitly citing AI as the cause, further underscoring the current containment of disruption to specific functions rather than entire industries. However, payrolls growth continues to underperform in occupations where AI is having an anecdotal impact, such as telephone call centers, suggesting that some changes are occurring but are not yet widespread.

Goldman Sachs' analysis highlights that AI’s influence on productivity is pronounced where it has been deployed. Generative AI adoption delivers, on average, a 23%–29% boost to labor productivity. Sectors leveraging generative AI most actively—information, finance, and professional services—are seeing the largest increases in productivity as firms move from experimentation to integrating AI into their core workflows. Business leaders and economists expect that as adoption deepens, the aggregate productivity impact will become more visible in macroeconomic data.

The full employment effect of AI is still developing. While AI-related openings are growing, especially in IT, there is also an uptick in demand for roles such as machine-learning engineers and AI researchers. Surveys reflect that a substantial share of companies are planning to hire for these skillsets. Productivity improvements may eventually widen to more industries, and “AI intensity” remains highest in information-technology and professional-service sectors, signaling where future employment shifts might first materialize.

The current impact of AI on the labor market is limited, but the seeds of transformation are being sown. Increases in corporate AI adoption, especially among large and medium-sized firms, point toward future productivity and role changes. However, fears of widespread AI-induced job loss appear overstated—at least until broader, deeper integration of the technology with business processes occurs. As companies continue to scale AI and as supporting infrastructure matures, opportunities and challenges will both be amplified, warranting close observation by policymakers, business leaders, and workers alike.