Agnico Eagle Shares Tumble 14.57% Over Two Days as Bearish Crossover and Oversold RSI Signal Deepening Downtrend

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has experienced a sharp decline of 11.61% in the most recent session, extending its two-day loss to 14.57%. This rapid sell-off warrants a detailed technical assessment across multiple frameworks to evaluate potential trend dynamics and confluence points.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action exhibits a bearish engulfing pattern, where the second day’s candle (closing at $190.5) completely subsumes the prior day’s body, signaling strong downward momentum. Key support levels emerge around the 200-day moving average (~$175–$180) and the 2025-04–2025-05 consolidation range ($104–$108), which may act as psychological anchors. Resistance is now at the recent intraday high of $215.51, with a breakdown below $188.52 (2026-01-30 low) likely to target $165–$170.

Moving Average Theory

AEM’s 50-day MA (~$190) and 100-day MA (~$185) have been breached, with the 200-day MA (~$175) now acting as a critical threshold. The short-term MA (50-day) crossing below the mid-term (100-day) confirms a bearish crossover, while the long-term MA suggests the stock remains in a primary downtrend. Confluence between the 200-day MA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (~$170) may consolidate as a pivotal support zone.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has contracted sharply, with the line dipping below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator (K: 10, D: 12) indicates an oversold condition (<30), but the divergence between K and D suggests exhaustion rather than a reversal. A potential bounce could emerge if K crosses above D, though this remains speculative without a reversal candlestick confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has spiked, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands expanding to ~$180–$200. The current price of $190.5 sits near the lower band, historically a point of potential reversion. However, the recent contraction in band width (prior to the sell-off) implied a breakout, which has now materialized as a bearish thrust. A sustained break below the lower band may signal further downward extension.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to ~7.1M shares, validating the recent selloff. However, the volume spike lacks follow-through compared to prior bullish moves (e.g., the 2025-12-08–2025-12-10 rally), suggesting uneven participation. If volume wanes during a rebound, it may indicate weak conviction, whereas a volume surge on a rebound could hint at short-covering or support.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI (~25) is deeply oversold, typically suggesting a potential rebound. However, in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist, and RSI divergence (price lows vs. RSI lows) must be monitored. A failure to hold above $188.52 could keep RSI depressed despite temporary bounces.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the 2025-04–2025-08 peak ($125–$128) to the 2025-11–2025-06 trough ($104–$108) include 38.2% (~$117) and 61.8% (~$111). The recent decline has bypassed these levels, now targeting the 78.6% retracement (~$100) as a potential floor. A rebound from this zone could retest 50% ($113) for trend clarity.

Confluence and Divergence

Confluence between the 200-day MA, Fibonacci 61.8% level, and lower Bollinger Band (~$170–$175) suggests a high-probability support cluster. Divergence between the oversold RSI and bearish candlestick patterns highlights the risk of a false bounce. A break below $188.52 would align with MACD and MA signals for further decline, while a sustained close above $215.51 could trigger a reversal.