Agnico Eagle Mines Drops 6.48% as Bearish Trend Gains Momentum on Key Support Breakdown

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) closed the most recent session with a 6.48% decline, marking a bearish candlestick pattern characterized by a long lower shadow and a near-low close. This suggests heightened selling pressure and potential exhaustion of buyers. Key support levels are forming around $169.39 (recent low) and $164.11 (prior consolidation zone), while resistance is clustered at $173.02 (previous high) and $178.5 (October 2025 peak). The price action indicates a possible breakdown from a descending triangle pattern, with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages currently below the 200-day MA, reinforcing a bearish trend. A death cross scenario is likely if the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, which would amplify the downtrend signal.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action forms a "Bearish Engulfing" pattern, where a large bearish candle engulfs the previous bullish candle, signaling a shift in momentum. Additionally, the price is testing the $169.39 support level, which has previously acted as a floor. A break below this could trigger a target of $164.11, aligning with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the October 2025 high.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA is currently below the 200-day MA, indicating a bearish bias. Short-term momentum is weak, with the 50-day MA trending lower, suggesting further downside. The 100-day MA at ~$175.00 is acting as a dynamic resistance, and failure to reclaim this level would confirm a bearish trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram is narrowing, indicating weakening bearish momentum, but the signal line crossing above the MACD line suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows a bearish divergence, with the %K line dipping below the %D line at overbought levels (prior to the drop), hinting at a possible correction.
Bollinger Bands
The price is near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions. Band contraction observed in late November 2025 suggests a period of consolidation before a potential breakout. If the price remains below the 20-day moving average, the bands may widen again, signaling increased volatility.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume spiked during the 6.48% decline, validating the bearish move. However, volume has since decreased, suggesting diminishing selling pressure. A rebound on rising volume could indicate short-covering or a potential reversal, while a lack of volume may confirm a distribution phase.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is near oversold territory (~28), which typically suggests a short-term rebound. However, in a strong downtrend, oversold readings can persist without reversal. A bullish divergence (higher RSI lows) would strengthen the case for a bounce, but a bearish crossover remains more probable unless accompanied by a surge in volume.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% ($170.00) and 61.8% ($165.00) are critical for near-term support. A bounce off the 38.2% level could trigger a retracement to $173.02, but a break below 61.8% would target $160.00, aligning with a prior low.

Confluence and Divergences
Confluence is evident at the $169.39 support level, where Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, and candlestick patterns align. However, divergences exist between the bearish MACD and the oversold RSI, suggesting conflicting signals. A decisive close below $164.11 on increasing volume would validate a continuation of the downtrend, while a rebound above $173.02 could signal a short-term reversal.
Probabilistic Outlook
The most probable scenario is a continuation of the downtrend to $164.11, supported by moving average alignment and bearish momentum indicators. A countertrend rally to $173.02 is possible but contingent on rising volume and a break above the 50-day MA. Traders should monitor the $169.39 level for confluence between Fibonacci and Bollinger Band signals to assess short-term opportunities.