AGNC Shares Rally on Surging Volume but Rank 444th in Market Activity as Puts Soar and Analysts Warn of Risks

On August 22, 2025, AGNC shares rose 2.49% with a trading volume of $240 million, up 57.78% from the previous day, ranking 444th in market activity. The stock has drawn significant bearish attention, with put options trading at 1.6 times expected volume. The Put/Call Ratio reached 4.16, and At-The-Money Implied Volatility increased by over 1 point, reflecting heightened uncertainty ahead of its October 20 earnings report.

AGNC’s leveraged mortgage-backed securities strategy, while generating a 15% dividend yield, exposes the stock to interest rate risks. Despite a 2.6% post-earnings rally following its June 30 report—where portfolio yields rose to 4.87%—analysts maintain a negative outlook, assigning a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). The stock has lost over 50% since its 2008 IPO, though the high dividend has partially offset losses.

Investors are advised to monitor AGNC’s October 20 earnings release for clarity on its financial trajectory. Elevated put volume and volatility suggest cautious positioning, with market participants pricing in potential downside risks tied to its aggressive leverage profile.

The backtest of a strategy buying the top 500 stocks by daily volume and holding for one day yielded $2,253.88 in profits from December 2022 to August 2025, with a maximum drawdown of -$1,025.14 and a Sharpe ratio of 1.79, indicating favorable risk-adjusted returns.