Aging, Fertility, and Immigration Collide as U.S. Population Nears Historic Shrinkage

The U.S. population is projected to face a significant demographic shift by 2031, with deaths expected to outnumber births for the first time in modern history, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The agency’s analysis highlights a growing demographic imbalance, with the U.S. population anticipated to shrink by approximately 320,000 due to net deportations under a hypothetical administration scenario. This marks a critical turning point in the nation’s population dynamics, which have long been bolstered by immigration and high birth rates.

Under current trends, the CBO estimates that the population will continue to grow through the end of the 2020s, but at an increasingly slow pace. The balance between births and deaths has historically favored a positive net natural change—more births than deaths—but this is expected to shift by 2031. The report outlines that the aging population, coupled with a decline in fertility rates, is a primary driver of this projected shift. The U.S. fertility rate has remained below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman for over a decade, a trend consistent with broader global patterns.

The anticipated demographic contraction is further exacerbated by the CBO’s modeling of a potential administration that prioritizes large-scale immigration enforcement. In a scenario based on political rhetoric, particularly from Donald Trump, the CBO estimates that approximately 320,000 people would be deported annually, leading to a net population decrease over the next decade. While such an administration has not yet been implemented, the analysis underscores the potential demographic consequences of immigration policy changes.

Economists and demographers have long emphasized the role of immigration in offsetting population decline, particularly in aging economies. The U.S. is not unique in facing this challenge—countries like Japan, Germany, and Italy have already seen periods of negative natural population growth. However, the U.S. has traditionally maintained a relatively higher birth rate and a more open immigration policy, which has helped to counterbalance these trends. The CBO’s projections suggest that these trends are beginning to converge toward a critical inflection point.

The implications of this demographic shift are likely to extend beyond population statistics, affecting labor markets, healthcare systems, and social security programs. A shrinking or aging population could place additional pressure on public services and may necessitate policy reforms to address workforce shortages and pension sustainability. The CBO’s report serves as a data-driven warning that the U.S. is approaching a demographic crossroads, with decisions on immigration, healthcare, and economic policy likely to shape the trajectory of population change in the coming decades.