Agilent Technologies Drops 2.98% as Bearish Crossover and Oversold RSI Signal Downtrend Continuation Amid Hammer Pattern at 50% Fibonacci Level

Agilent Technologies (A) is currently in a bearish phase, with a 2.98% decline over two days and a 2.49% drop in the most recent session. The price action suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend, supported by bearish candlestick patterns like long lower shadows and bearish engulfing formations. Key support levels are forming near $136.29 (the 2025-10-10 low) and $135.54 (the 2024-12-27 low), while resistance is clustered around $140.11 (2025-10-09 high) and $143.09 (2025-10-03 high). The price has tested these levels multiple times, indicating potential confluence zones for trend continuation or reversal.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term (50-day: ~$138.5) and long-term (200-day: ~$139.5) moving averages show a bearish crossover, with the 50-day MA below the 200-day MA. The 100-day MA (~$139.0) further reinforces the downtrend. The current price ($136.62) is below all three averages, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 50-day MA has been flattening, suggesting momentum may be slowing, which could hint at a potential pullback.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line is negative and trending downward, with the histogram shrinking, indicating waning bearish momentum. The KDJ indicator shows an oversold condition (K: 25, D: 20, J: 15), but the J line has diverged from the price, which may signal a weak bearish signal. The RSI (28) confirms oversold territory, though the lack of immediate reversal in price suggests the downtrend remains intact. Divergences between KDJ and price action warrant caution, as they may delay a potential bounce.

Bollinger Bands

The bands have contracted recently, signaling low volatility and a potential breakout. The price is near the lower band ($136.29), which historically acts as a support level. A break below this could trigger increased volatility, while a rebound above the mid-band ($138.5) might indicate a short-term pullback. The narrow band width (~1.5%) suggests a period of consolidation before a directional move.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has spiked on down days (e.g., 1.97M shares on 2025-10-10 vs. 1.15M on 2025-10-09), validating the bearish momentum. However, volume has been declining since mid-October, which could imply weakening conviction in the downtrend. A surge in volume on a potential rebound could confirm a reversal, while muted volume would support a continuation of the decline.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (28) is in oversold territory, but the price has continued to fall despite this, indicating a strong bearish bias. A sustained move above 30 would signal a potential short-term reversal, but the broader trend remains bearish. The RSI histogram shows no bullish divergence, and the stochastic RSI (25) aligns with the oversold condition, suggesting a possible bounce but not a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2025-02-03 high ($153.18) to the 2025-03-24 low ($120.89) include 38.2% ($139.5), 50% ($136.9), and 61.8% ($134.2). The current price ($136.62) is near the 50% retracement level, which has historically acted as a dynamic support/resistance zone. A break below 50% would target the 61.8% level, while a rebound above 38.2% could test $140.11.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined in the provided text leverages Hammer candlestick patterns as entry signals. Historical results from 2022 to 2025-10-10 show a 133.66% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.97, outperforming the benchmark (38.50%). The most recent Hammer pattern formed on 2025-10-10, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. While the broader trend is bearish, the confluence of the Hammer pattern, oversold RSI, and Fibonacci support increases the probability of a short-term rebound. However, moving averages and MACD remain bearish, suggesting a cautious approach—validating the Hammer pattern with a volume surge would strengthen the case for a reversal trade.