Agentic Commerce: The Next Frontier in E-Commerce and AI-Driven Retail Innovation

The e-commerce landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as AI agents transition from experimental tools to core drivers of consumer and business purchasing decisions. This evolution, termed agentic commerce, represents a paradigm shift where AI systems autonomously discover, evaluate, and execute transactions on behalf of users. For investors, the opportunity lies not in the agents themselves but in the infrastructure enablers-platforms like Mirakl-that power the ecosystems these agents operate within. By analyzing market dynamics, financial performance, and strategic innovations, this article argues that infrastructure providers are uniquely positioned to capture long-term value in the agent-centric commerce revolution.

The Agentic Commerce Market: A $42.3 Billion Opportunity by 2030

The agentic commerce market is projected to grow at a staggering compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 71.2%, expanding from $8.2 billion in 2025 to a $42.3 billion market by 2030. This exponential growth is fueled by AI agents streamlining complex purchasing workflows, from sourcing sustainable products to optimizing last-minute procurement needs. For context, the broader agentic AI in retail and e-commerce sector is expected to balloon from $46.74 billion in 2025 to $175.11 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 30.20%. These figures underscore a fundamental redefinition of how goods are discovered and transacted, with AI agents prioritizing metrics like price, delivery speed, and product relevance over brand loyalty according to research.

Mirakl: A Case Study in Infrastructure-Driven Growth

Mirakl, a leader in marketplace technology, exemplifies how infrastructure enablers are capitalizing on this shift. In 2024, retailers using Mirakl's platform achieved a combined gross merchandise value (GMV) of $9.6 billion, reflecting a 34.3% year-over-year growth rate-nearly four times the global e-commerce average according to market analysis. This performance is underpinned by Mirakl's AI-driven infrastructure, including the Catalog Transformer, which normalizes product data for AI agents, reducing product listing setup times by 70%. Such innovations enable businesses to scale rapidly without inventory risk, a critical advantage in an agent-centric world where speed and adaptability are paramount.

Financially, Mirakl is on a robust trajectory. Its annual recurring revenue (ARR) is projected to reach $200 million in 2025, up from $177 million in 2024 according to company reports. This growth is supported by a 30% year-over-year increase in GMV to $11.2 billion in 2024. Mirakl's strategic investments further solidify its position: the company plans to double its AI spending in 2025, matching the total of the previous three years combined. Additionally, its acquisition of Adspert in December 2024 has expanded its retail media capabilities, creating new revenue streams through AI-powered advertising tools like Mirakl Ads.

Strategic Imperatives for Infrastructure Enablers

To thrive in agentic commerce, infrastructure providers must address three key challenges:
1. Data Optimization: AI agents require structured, rich product data to function effectively. Mirakl's Nexus solution, which enriches and tailors product content for AI platforms, ensures retailers maintain visibility in an agent-driven search landscape.
2. Operational Scalability: Platforms must support real-time inventory management, competitive pricing, and seamless fulfillment. Mirakl's AI-powered tools automate tasks like product categorization and seller onboarding, enabling marketplaces to handle high-volume, complex transactions.
3. Customer Data Retention: As AI agents risk disintermediating traditional retailers, platforms must help brands capture customer data through owned-agent experiences. For example, Mirakl's Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) strategy extends beyond traditional SEO, structuring content for AI readability while preserving brand control.

The Investment Thesis: Why Infrastructure Enablers Win

Infrastructure enablers like Mirakl are uniquely positioned to benefit from agentic commerce due to their role in addressing the sector's inherent complexities. Unlike pure-play AI agents, which face regulatory and ethical scrutiny, infrastructure providers offer scalable, interoperable solutions that align with both consumer and enterprise needs. For instance, Mirakl's platform supports 67% of global e-commerce sales through marketplace models, which are inherently suited to agent-driven workflows. These models thrive on breadth, depth, and automation-qualities that AI agents demand for tasks like sourcing 500 ergonomic desk chairs with specific sustainability criteria according to industry analysis.

Moreover, the financial metrics of infrastructure enablers are compelling. Mirakl's ARR growth of 15% in 2024 and projected 30% GMV increase in 2025 suggest a business model with strong unit economics. Its valuation, though last reported at $3.5 billion in 2021 according to company filings, is likely undervalued given its current growth trajectory and expanding AI capabilities. For investors, this represents a rare opportunity to invest in a company that is not only adapting to the future of commerce but actively shaping it.

Conclusion: Capturing Long-Term Value in the Agent-Centric Era

Agentic commerce is not a passing trend but a structural shift in how value is created and captured in the digital economy. While AI agents will undoubtedly disrupt traditional retail models, the infrastructure enablers that power these agents-platforms like Mirakl-are poised to emerge as the true beneficiaries. By investing in companies that provide the technical, operational, and data foundations for agentic commerce, investors can secure a stake in a market projected to grow from $8.2 billion to $42.3 billion in just five years. As the line between human and machine-driven commerce blurs, the winners will be those who build the bridges connecting the two.