Ag Markets at Inflection Points: Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans Signal Critical Rebounds

The agricultural complex is at a pivotal juncture. Wheat is drowning in global oversupply, corn is teetering on record U.S. stocks but tight global balances, and soybeans are flirting with historic lows in ending stocks. Yet within this volatility lies opportunity. Technical charts are now aligning with fundamental shifts to create compelling entry points for traders.

Wheat: Bearish Fundamentals, But Technical Support Lurks

Supply-Demand Reality: The USDA’s May WASDE report confirmed a global wheat surplus, with production hitting a record 792.3 million metric tons. U.S. ending stocks are up 10% to 923 million bushels, the highest in six years. European and Russian harvests are set to flood markets, keeping pressure on prices.

Technical Rebound Setup:
Chicago Wheat (July) is testing critical support at 504 cents/bu, with further downside to 498 and 492 if broken. But this is precisely where buyers should stand ready. A close above 523 cents would signal a reversal, targeting 540 cents. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (below 30), hinting at exhaustion in the bearish trend.

Trade Thesis: Wheat’s fundamentals are bleak, but technicals suggest a short-term bounce. Short sellers have overextended; the chart’s symmetry and RSI divergence argue for a corrective rally by June.

Corn: The Perfect Storm of Oversupply and Underlying Strength

Supply-Demand Contradiction: U.S. corn production hit a record 15.8 billion bushels, pushing ending stocks to 1.8 billion, the highest since 2019/2020. Yet global stocks are tightening to a 12-year low of 277.8 million tons, with China’s demand and ethanol mandates providing floor support.

Technical Contrarian Play:
Corn (July) is battling a bearish death cross (9-day MA below 21-day MA) but has held near 432 cents/bu, a key demand zone. A breakout above 447 cents could spark a rally to 459 cents, while a breach of 426 cents risks a test of 420 cents.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds intrigue: commercials (hedgers) have been accumulating long positions while speculators pile into shorts. This divergence often precedes market turns.

Trade Thesis: The fundamentals are mixed, but the technical setup and COT data suggest a bottom is forming. Aggressive buyers can nibble at 432 cents, targeting 459 cents by August.

Soybeans: The Tightest Supply, the Bullish Technicals

Supply-Demand Tightrope: U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at a razor-thin 295 million bushels, the lowest since 2022/2023. Brazil’s record 175 million-ton harvest is a double-edged sword—flooding markets now but depleting stocks by year-end.

Technical Confirmation:
Soybeans (July) are in a clear uptrend, having held support at 1053 cents/bu. Resistance at 1082 cents is the next hurdle, with a potential $11/bu breakout on strong demand or weather scares. The RSI has recovered from oversold levels, and the MACD line is turning upward.

Trade Thesis: Soybeans are the clear standout. With China’s tariff rollbacks and a crush rate at record levels, this is a buy the dip scenario. Target 1105 cents by Q4—this could be a multi-month high.

The Bottom Line: Technicals Overcoming Fundamentals—For Now

The agricultural complex is a study in contrasts. Wheat’s bearish supply picture is undeniable, but its charts suggest a short-covering bounce. Corn’s record U.S. stocks are offset by global tightness and technical support. Soybeans are the purest play on scarcity.

Traders should focus on support levels and RSI divergences as buying signals. Wheat at 504, corn at 432, and soybeans at 1053 are all critical technical thresholds.

Act Now: The USDA’s May report has set the stage. Technical rebounds are imminent—capture them before fundamentals turn bullish.

Joe’s Rule: In agriculture, the harvest is the ultimate test. But until then, price action and positioning will drive the market. Get in before the crowd.